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Thread: Braves SP xwOBA

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    Braves SP xwOBA

    Now that the rotation has pretty much settled in as Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried and Teheran exactly as expected from opening day (though Fried is a bit of a surprise), lets take a look at how the most predictive pitching stat available rates these guys.

    With rough estimating of yearly xwOBA data, I break SPs down based on xwOBA approximately as follows:

    Grade 80 (Ace): .260 and below
    Grade 70 (TOR): ~.280
    Grade 60 (#3): ~.300
    Grade 50 (average #4): ~.320
    Grade 40 (Back end SP): ~.340
    Grade 30 (AAA depth): ~.360
    Grade 20 (AAAA fodder): .380 and higher

    Mike Soroka 0.270 - performing like a TOR guy, the HR/FB rate won't remain 0 forever, but he is legit
    Max Fried 0.280 - performing like a TOR guy, hopefully the sub-2 BB/9 holds up
    Kevin Gausman 0.303 - the solid #3 we all knew the Braves were getting
    Julio Teheran 0.326 - filling the role of dependable veteran 4/5 nicely
    Mike Foltynewicz 0.336 - disappointing back end SP performance, but hopefully he just needs to shake off the rust

    While I expect Fried (BB/9) to regress negatively, I expect Folty to figure things out and help off set the downside. If Fried goes on to maintain that Grade 70 control, the Braves are sitting pretty.

    The rotation talent is in place, so now it's time to fix the BP by slotting guys like Touki and Newk in roles that allow them to contribute. Once Minter get's straightened out the Braves can take a look around and make additions from outside the organization as needed.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-10-2019 at 04:06 PM.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Where do you rate Williams Perez in the grand scheme of the big picture.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Individual-1 View Post
    Where do you rate Williams Perez in the grand scheme of the big picture.
    I think he falls in between Colon and Gohard as far as pecking order
















    For buffet line.
    Coppy

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    Called Up to the Major Leagues Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Now that the rotation has pretty much settled in as Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried and Teheran exactly as expected from opening day (though Fried is a bit of a surprise), lets take a look at how the most predictive pitching stat available rates these guys.

    With rough estimating of yearly xwOBA data, I break SPs down based on xwOBA approximately as follows:

    Grade 80 (Ace): .260 and below
    Grade 70 (TOR): ~.280
    Grade 60 (#3): ~.300
    Grade 50 (average #4): ~.320
    Grade 40 (Back end SP): ~.340
    Grade 30 (AAA depth): ~.360
    Grade 20 (AAAA fodder): .380 and higher

    Mike Soroka 0.270 - performing like a TOR guy, the HR/FB rate won't remain 0 forever, but he is legit
    Max Fried 0.280 - performing like a TOR guy, hopefully the sub-2 BB/9 holds up
    Kevin Gausman 0.303 - the solid #3 we all knew the Braves were getting
    Julio Teheran 0.326 - filling the role of dependable veteran 4/5 nicely
    Mike Foltynewicz 0.336 - disappointing back end SP performance, but hopefully he just needs to shake off the rust

    While I expect Fried (BB/9) to regress negatively, I expect Folty to figure things out and help off set the downside. If Fried goes on to maintain that Grade 70 control, the Braves are sitting pretty.

    The rotation talent is in place, so now it's time to fix the BP by slotting guys like Touki and Newk in roles that allow them to contribute. Once Minter get's straightened out the Braves can take a look around and make additions from outside the organization as needed.
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!
    Why would you bash him for posting this excellent, informative data? I for one love reading Enscheff’s data posts on here

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    I read somewhere that Soroka is now the only pitcher ever to give up 1 run or fewer in his first 8 mlb starts. You usually feel good when you hear only player ever.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I read somewhere that Soroka is now the only pitcher ever to give up 1 run or fewer in his first 8 mlb starts. You usually feel good when you hear only player ever.
    Here it is----

    David O'Brien

    Verified account

    @DOBrienATL
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    #Braves' Soroka last night became first pitcher in MLB history to allow one or no earned runs in at least eight of first 10 starts. Read about that unusual poise and maturity the 21-year-old Canadian displays:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?
    tiny samples for tiny minds
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
    A.k.a. Ozzie's Chainz

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
    either way it was poorly thought out...based on a tiny sample
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
    I like you as a poster, but you don't poke the doctor of statistics, you just don't. Could you do what he does and break things down? No, you can't, I can't.

    He brings it and even though he can become cantankerous because we've known him for years, you just don't. Hell, I got on him a lot and he will tell you that but he also would say, I always brought information and we all, the Braves Nation, loves it.

    Don't poke the bear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AerchAngel View Post
    I like you as a poster, but you don't poke the doctor of statistics, you just don't. Could you do what he does and break things down? No, you can't, I can't.

    He brings it and even though he can become cantankerous because we've known him for years, you just don't. Hell, I got on him a lot and he will tell you that but he also would say, I always brought information and we all, the Braves Nation, loves it.

    Don't poke the bear.
    He also doesn't have to let Enscheff and his brown-nosers talk **** to him either. He has every right to protect himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    He also doesn't have to let Enscheff and his brown-nosers talk **** to him either. He has every right to protect himself.
    We are good with each other, but when someone does something like that, we know Dr. Scheff, that is going to happen. We learned that through the years. I'd been here a very long time and gave Dr. Scheff a lot of grief but I now understand him. He is the doctor of stats and breakdowns, a very narcissistic person but who are we to say otherwise that he is wrong in what he does? Would any of do the things he does? No we wouldn't. I could but I am not going to spend time doing it. I respect Enscheff because he is willing to research these things and none of us, maybe Rico is the closest to do these things. He has a gruff personality and put off people but that is him. He is arrogant, but he has that right and pretty much proved he is the "man" in this.

    I am still going to get on him when he goes too far and he really haven't this year, not more than any others to be honest.

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    And Enscheff knows I still get on him. I am not a brown-noser. I just respect what he does because if he does not I have to and I don't want that and being on the sideline for work until I get cleared, I am not going to. I am enjoying my time off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AerchAngel View Post
    And Enscheff knows I still get on him. I am not a brown-noser. I just respect what he does because if he does not I have to and I don't want that and being on the sideline for work until I get cleared, I am not going to. I am enjoying my time off.
    Yeah, you're not a brown-noser. I'm referring to those that help him gang up on some of the other posters. It reminds me of a ridiculous high school clique.
    Last edited by Garmel; 05-10-2019 at 07:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    Yeah, you're not a brown-noser. I'm referring to those that help him gang up on some of the other posters. It reminds me of a ridiculous high school clique.
    Hey hero, did you notice Newk is in the BP now?

    Where’s that sig you promised to keep up?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Hey hero, did you notice Newk is in the BP now?

    Where’s that sig you promised to keep up?
    1) If Newk has made changes in his control he will surely be given another chance. You're short sighted as usual. Btw, have you made any more predictions for the attendance this year? You still haven't answered me when CJ won the batting title. Hey, I loved your predictions when it came to the tax cut. Good thing it didn't work. See, I can act like an emotional, unstable idiot too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    1) If Newk has made changes in his control he will surely be given another chance. You're short sighted as usual. Btw, have you made any more predictions in attendance this year? You still haven't answered me when CJ won the batting title. Hey, I loved your predictions when it came to the tax cut. Good thing they didn't work. See, I can act like an emotional, unstable idiot too!
    Side stepping the question I see haha. Was 1 supposed to be followed by other equally inane thoughts?

    Remember how proud you were quoting me in your sig when you thought you “got me”?

    Remember when I told you to keep that sig up over and over?

    Remember when you said you’d keep it up over and over?

    So...where’s your sig hero? Why did you take it down now that all my quotes have proven to be correct?

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    My stalker only pops out of the weeds to comment about me. That’s something like 40 straight posts about me. It’s a little creepy honestly.

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