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    Braves SP xwOBA

    Now that the rotation has pretty much settled in as Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried and Teheran exactly as expected from opening day (though Fried is a bit of a surprise), lets take a look at how the most predictive pitching stat available rates these guys.

    With rough estimating of yearly xwOBA data, I break SPs down based on xwOBA approximately as follows:

    Grade 80 (Ace): .260 and below
    Grade 70 (TOR): ~.280
    Grade 60 (#3): ~.300
    Grade 50 (average #4): ~.320
    Grade 40 (Back end SP): ~.340
    Grade 30 (AAA depth): ~.360
    Grade 20 (AAAA fodder): .380 and higher

    Mike Soroka 0.270 - performing like a TOR guy, the HR/FB rate won't remain 0 forever, but he is legit
    Max Fried 0.280 - performing like a TOR guy, hopefully the sub-2 BB/9 holds up
    Kevin Gausman 0.303 - the solid #3 we all knew the Braves were getting
    Julio Teheran 0.326 - filling the role of dependable veteran 4/5 nicely
    Mike Foltynewicz 0.336 - disappointing back end SP performance, but hopefully he just needs to shake off the rust

    While I expect Fried (BB/9) to regress negatively, I expect Folty to figure things out and help off set the downside. If Fried goes on to maintain that Grade 70 control, the Braves are sitting pretty.

    The rotation talent is in place, so now it's time to fix the BP by slotting guys like Touki and Newk in roles that allow them to contribute. Once Minter get's straightened out the Braves can take a look around and make additions from outside the organization as needed.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-10-2019 at 04:06 PM.

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    Where do you rate Williams Perez in the grand scheme of the big picture.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Individual-1 View Post
    Where do you rate Williams Perez in the grand scheme of the big picture.
    I think he falls in between Colon and Gohard as far as pecking order
















    For buffet line.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Now that the rotation has pretty much settled in as Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried and Teheran exactly as expected from opening day (though Fried is a bit of a surprise), lets take a look at how the most predictive pitching stat available rates these guys.

    With rough estimating of yearly xwOBA data, I break SPs down based on xwOBA approximately as follows:

    Grade 80 (Ace): .260 and below
    Grade 70 (TOR): ~.280
    Grade 60 (#3): ~.300
    Grade 50 (average #4): ~.320
    Grade 40 (Back end SP): ~.340
    Grade 30 (AAA depth): ~.360
    Grade 20 (AAAA fodder): .380 and higher

    Mike Soroka 0.270 - performing like a TOR guy, the HR/FB rate won't remain 0 forever, but he is legit
    Max Fried 0.280 - performing like a TOR guy, hopefully the sub-2 BB/9 holds up
    Kevin Gausman 0.303 - the solid #3 we all knew the Braves were getting
    Julio Teheran 0.326 - filling the role of dependable veteran 4/5 nicely
    Mike Foltynewicz 0.336 - disappointing back end SP performance, but hopefully he just needs to shake off the rust

    While I expect Fried (BB/9) to regress negatively, I expect Folty to figure things out and help off set the downside. If Fried goes on to maintain that Grade 70 control, the Braves are sitting pretty.

    The rotation talent is in place, so now it's time to fix the BP by slotting guys like Touki and Newk in roles that allow them to contribute. Once Minter get's straightened out the Braves can take a look around and make additions from outside the organization as needed.
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!
    Why would you bash him for posting this excellent, informative data? I for one love reading Enscheff’s data posts on here

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    I read somewhere that Soroka is now the only pitcher ever to give up 1 run or fewer in his first 8 mlb starts. You usually feel good when you hear only player ever.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I read somewhere that Soroka is now the only pitcher ever to give up 1 run or fewer in his first 8 mlb starts. You usually feel good when you hear only player ever.
    Here it is----

    David O'Brien

    Verified account

    @DOBrienATL
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    #Braves' Soroka last night became first pitcher in MLB history to allow one or no earned runs in at least eight of first 10 starts. Read about that unusual poise and maturity the 21-year-old Canadian displays:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    Must be a slow day in Nevada!
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?
    tiny samples for tiny minds
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I suppose I could call for JD's benching the game before he goes on an 1.100 OPS tear like you did.

    Would that be better content as far as you're concerned?
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Got to take the L sometimes.

    I've been used to it over the years.
    Braves / Panthers / Lakers / Hornets / Clemson / Duke Basketball

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
    either way it was poorly thought out...based on a tiny sample
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    I called for him to get one day off not benched for the rest of his career.
    I like you as a poster, but you don't poke the doctor of statistics, you just don't. Could you do what he does and break things down? No, you can't, I can't.

    He brings it and even though he can become cantankerous because we've known him for years, you just don't. Hell, I got on him a lot and he will tell you that but he also would say, I always brought information and we all, the Braves Nation, loves it.

    Don't poke the bear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AerchAngel View Post
    I like you as a poster, but you don't poke the doctor of statistics, you just don't. Could you do what he does and break things down? No, you can't, I can't.

    He brings it and even though he can become cantankerous because we've known him for years, you just don't. Hell, I got on him a lot and he will tell you that but he also would say, I always brought information and we all, the Braves Nation, loves it.

    Don't poke the bear.
    He also doesn't have to let Enscheff and his brown-nosers talk **** to him either. He has every right to protect himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    Yeah, you're not a brown-noser. I'm referring to those that help him gang up on some of the other posters. It reminds me of a ridiculous high school clique.
    Hey hero, did you notice Newk is in the BP now?

    Where’s that sig you promised to keep up?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Hey hero, did you notice Newk is in the BP now?

    Where’s that sig you promised to keep up?
    1) If Newk has made changes in his control he will surely be given another chance. You're short sighted as usual. Btw, have you made any more predictions for the attendance this year? You still haven't answered me when CJ won the batting title. Hey, I loved your predictions when it came to the tax cut. Good thing it didn't work. See, I can act like an emotional, unstable idiot too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    1) If Newk has made changes in his control he will surely be given another chance. You're short sighted as usual. Btw, have you made any more predictions in attendance this year? You still haven't answered me when CJ won the batting title. Hey, I loved your predictions when it came to the tax cut. Good thing they didn't work. See, I can act like an emotional, unstable idiot too!
    Side stepping the question I see haha. Was 1 supposed to be followed by other equally inane thoughts?

    Remember how proud you were quoting me in your sig when you thought you “got me”?

    Remember when I told you to keep that sig up over and over?

    Remember when you said you’d keep it up over and over?

    So...where’s your sig hero? Why did you take it down now that all my quotes have proven to be correct?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Side stepping the question I see haha. Was 1 supposed to be followed by other equally inane thoughts?

    Remember how proud you were quoting me in your sig when you thought you “got me”?

    Remember when I told you to keep that sig up over and over?

    Remember when you said you’d keep it up over and over?

    So...where’s your sig hero? Why did you take it down now that all my quotes have proven to be correct?
    LOL! None of this has yet to be proven. If Newk can get his control he'll be fine. You keep giving the "because of his age" excuse he can't get better with control. Age has nothing to do with it in this case, it's experience. He only started pitching in his senior year in HS. After that he pitched two years at a Mickey Mouse college. In other words, he's had little development time. Saying that you could end up being right but to make these blanket statements makes you makes you look silly. You still believe that a guy who is a super utility player is automatically classified as a 45. They aren't. Ask Ben Zobrist. Camargo in his first two years has shown to be a 50-55 although he's down this year. Probably still getting used to the change.

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    My stalker only pops out of the weeds to comment about me. That’s something like 40 straight posts about me. It’s a little creepy honestly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    My stalker only pops out of the weeds to comment about me. That’s something like 40 straight posts about me. It’s a little creepy honestly.
    Hey there. Sorry to interrupt the little pow wow you guys got going on.

    Haven't seen you respond to my first comment. Thx.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    My stalker only pops out of the weeds to comment about me. That’s something like 40 straight posts about me. It’s a little creepy honestly.
    I popped up a few days ago because you included me in one of your typical insult posts. Geez, you're a freaking idiot. Get freaking help.

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