Now that the rotation has pretty much settled in as Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried and Teheran exactly as expected from opening day (though Fried is a bit of a surprise), lets take a look at how the most predictive pitching stat available rates these guys.
With rough estimating of yearly xwOBA data, I break SPs down based on xwOBA approximately as follows:
Grade 80 (Ace): .260 and below
Grade 70 (TOR): ~.280
Grade 60 (#3): ~.300
Grade 50 (average #4): ~.320
Grade 40 (Back end SP): ~.340
Grade 30 (AAA depth): ~.360
Grade 20 (AAAA fodder): .380 and higher
Mike Soroka 0.270 - performing like a TOR guy, the HR/FB rate won't remain 0 forever, but he is legit
Max Fried 0.280 - performing like a TOR guy, hopefully the sub-2 BB/9 holds up
Kevin Gausman 0.303 - the solid #3 we all knew the Braves were getting
Julio Teheran 0.326 - filling the role of dependable veteran 4/5 nicely
Mike Foltynewicz 0.336 - disappointing back end SP performance, but hopefully he just needs to shake off the rust
While I expect Fried (BB/9) to regress negatively, I expect Folty to figure things out and help off set the downside. If Fried goes on to maintain that Grade 70 control, the Braves are sitting pretty.
The rotation talent is in place, so now it's time to fix the BP by slotting guys like Touki and Newk in roles that allow them to contribute. Once Minter get's straightened out the Braves can take a look around and make additions from outside the organization as needed.
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