Kimbrel: Yea or Nay?

[nsacpi]

I'm firmly in the Nay camp. First there are performance issues. Except for his outstanding 2017 season he hasn't been quite as good since 2014. Then there were the struggles in the post-season last year.

But a larger objection to me has to do with loss of "financial flexibility" (everyone's favorite buzz phrase) next off-season if we sign him beyond 2019.

Without Kimbrel we will head into the off-season with about $30M to play with. Options for using that money include:

1) Making a QO to Donaldson with the real possibility he accepts it. With Donaldson returning on a QO we would have a very deep team similar to this year's and still have some $ to play with.

2) Going after Grandal. Flowers and McCann have done well this year, but at some point the aging curve will catch up to them.

I think either of those becomes more difficult with Kimbrel signed for 2020. Not impossible. We could try to move salary.

If we don't sign Kimbrel, we also have the option of pursuing both 1 and 2 above by moving some salary. I like that possibility a lot. Having both Donaldson and Grandal on this team would turn an already good lineup into a powerhouse.

So we should consider the tradeoffs involved. Signing Kimbrel to anything more than a half-year deal means forgoing 1 or 2 above. It definitely rules out being able to carry both Donaldson and Grandal in 2020.

Of course if we don't sign him it means we will upgrade the pen in a different way, with costs involved there as well. It is only fair to acknowledge that.

The ideal to me is to just sign him for 2019, but I don't know that this is a realistic option.

[Enscheff]

If he can be had for any reasonable amount on a 1 year deal, or a 1 year deal plus an option, I think it needs to happen. This extra cash needs to be spent, and the best place for it as the roster currently stands is a short term deal on an elite BP arm.

If he is going to cost something like $40M+ over 2.5 years, I am a hard no. I'm also probably a no on a deal around ~$25M over 1.5 years.

So as always, it comes down to cost.

[nsacpi]

If he can be had for any reasonable amount on a 1 year deal, or a 1 year deal plus an option, I think it needs to happen.

I'd be fine with that.

[nsacpi]

This extra cash needs to be spent, and the best place for it as the roster currently stands is a short term deal on an elite BP arm.

I'm looking at Ian Kennedy as an alternative. He has pitched to a 2.38 FIP so far in 20 innings. The move to the pen has allowed his fastball velo to tick up to 94.2 from 92.4 last year. He's walking less than 1 per nine innings. He is striking out over 10 per nine. Also interestingly getting more groundballs as a reliever.

His contract pays him 16.5 this year and the same next year.

It seems to me we can make a deal where we pay the rest of his contract this year and have the Royals pay about half of next years. We probably have to give up someone like Wentz or Muller in that sort of deal. But it allows us to strengthen the pen this year, while saving us some $ next year (relative to paying Kimbrel).

[auyushu]

2) Going after Grandal. Flowers and McCann have done well this year, but at some point the aging curve will catch up to them.

Grandal is going to be 31 himself, the aging curve has just as much of a chance of catching up with him too. Going after Grandal this past offseason on a short term deal made a bit of sense, I'm not sure it really does next year unless it's a 1-2 year deal.

I don't see how bringing back Donaldson on a QO is really an issue when it comes to signing Kimbrel considering we are already paying Donaldson 20+ mil this year. Now it would definitely stop us from signing both for sure.

I don't want to see Kimbrel signed for any longer than say the 2021 season, but then I don't want to see us giving big money to a catcher past the age of 30 either.

[nsacpi]

Grandal is going to be 31 himself, the aging curve has just as much of a chance of catching up with him too. Going after Grandal this past offseason on a short term deal made a bit of sense, I'm not sure it really does next year unless it's a 1-2 year deal.

I don't see how bringing back Donaldson on a QO is really an issue when it comes to signing Kimbrel considering we are already paying Donaldson 20+ mil this year. Now it would definitely stop us from signing both for sure.

I don't want to see Kimbrel signed for any longer than say the 2021 season, but then I don't want to see us giving big money to a catcher past the age of 30 either.

I would try to bring in Grandal on a 2 year deal. Not interested in something longer. He did choose AAV over years this past off-season.

[nsacpi]

I don't see how bringing back Donaldson on a QO is really an issue when it comes to signing Kimbrel considering we are already paying Donaldson 20+ mil this year. Now it would definitely stop us from signing both for sure.

That's the point. We can bring back Donaldson no problem. But if we also have Kimbrel in 2020 say at 15M, we may not have that flexibility.

[The Chosen One]

What would we pay Kimbrel this year? A pro-rated salary of 14 million for rest of the year?

[nsacpi]

What would we pay Kimbrel this year? A pro-rated salary of 14 million for rest of the year?

I would guess something like that. But it is really the guaranteed years that are the issue.

[sturg33]

Blows my mind that Kimbrel and Keuchel haven't signed

The game has changed that's for sure

[Enscheff]

What would we pay Kimbrel this year? A pro-rated salary of 14 million for rest of the year?

It’s not my money, but the money my favorite team spends directly impacts their ability to be competitive.

Krimbrel could have probably gotten something like $17M-$18M per year for 3 years had he not came into the offseason with ludicrous demands. I have to imagine he would require the prorated version of a $20M deal for a singe year.

My guess on a 1 year deal for Kimbrel after the draft is something like $10M-$15M plus a $15m-$20M option with a $5M buyout.

The Braves should have plenty of room to add that contract to the 2019 budget.

[nsacpi]

It’s not my money, but the money my favorite team spends directly impacts their ability to be competitive.

Krimbrel could have probably gotten something like $17M-$18M per year for 3 years had he not came into the offseason with ludicrous demands. I have to imagine he would require the prorated version of a $20M deal for a singe year.

My guess on a 1 year deal for Kimbrel after the draft is something like $10M-$15M plus a $15m-$20M option with a $5M buyout.

The Braves should have plenty of room to add that contract to the 2019 budget.

I'd be willing to pay a bit more this year to avoid having a guarantee for 2020 or beyond.

[The Chosen One]

That's the point. We can bring back Donaldson no problem. But if we also have Kimbrel in 2020 say at 15M, we may not have that flexibility.

Isn't Tehearn all but gone after this year too? That should save us a few million as well. Also have O'Day's money coming off the books.

[SJ24]

Yea.

It's not my money.

[nsacpi]

Isn't Tehearn all but gone after this year too? That should save us a few million as well. Also have O'Day's money coming off the books.

Yes, but there are a bunch of guys getting raises, either from contracts or likely from arb. Plus there are potential expenditures at catcher (if McCann retires or we don't bring him back) and maybe another mid-price bullpen arm (such as Tony Watson or Mychal Givens).

[Russ2dollas]

If it's just money and it's just one year, then yes.

He was not good at the end of last year. He's had issues before. He's getting older. He's a RP. He hasn't played this year. Those are my concerns.

I'd love to sign him to a one year deal and an expensive option or two. Team option for 25 million. Next year an option for 30. We'll never pay 30...

RP is such a volatile market. We have a ton of arms.

I'm still someone who thinks the second half of the year we have a shot at impact arms from guys like Weigel, Gohara, Wilson, Wright, etc. I think at least one of those guys is an impact bullpen piece.
And I'd use TOuki and Newk as multi-inning guys now.

I think Minter will be back as an impact guy too.

Duvall might be able go get us a cost controlled pen arm that can hold down the 7th, right?

[Hudson2]

Isn't Tehearn all but gone after this year too? That should save us a few million as well. Also have O'Day's money coming off the books.

That’s why I thought. With Teheran’s 10 million gone, JD’s 23, Odays 9 that is a lot more than 30. I know there will be a few raises.

[The Chosen One]

If we get close enough to the WS this year like NLCS, I wonder if JD would take a year + option deal for less AAV to give us more wiggle room to spend.

[CyYoung31]

Despite your inability to spell Camargo and the terrible idea of taking on Greinke, this is a pretty good take.

If JD posts an ~.850 OPS over 140+ games and ends the season healthy, giving him a QO is a no-brainer. Worst case scenario is 1 year of JD at 3B for $19M, and Riley fakes it in LF for another season. Best case scenario is the Braves get a pick, Riley get his shot at 3B, and the Braves go out hunting for a cOF upgrade before ultimately settling on Markakis...who will probably be a Brave until the day he dies.

I am still a huge fan of getting Grandal in Atlanta.

This literally made me lol.

[Southcack77]

Yes, but there are a bunch of guys getting raises, either from contracts or likely from arb. Plus there are potential expenditures at catcher (if McCann retires or we don't bring him back) and maybe another mid-price bullpen arm (such as Tony Watson or Mychal Givens).

I find knocking Kimbrel for performance and cost and then championing Ian Kennedy to be pretty bizarre.

You are putting all kinds of fingers on those scales and that’s just odd imo.

If there is a bidding war for Kimbrel he will not be a brave, most likely. I don’t care one way or the other aside from the obvious gaping hole that Kimbrel would be hard pressed not to make better.

Lot of guys might do that, but can’t say Ian Kennedy does anything for me. Given how little the Braves were willing to spend on relief options this offseason, royals would have to basically eat all of kennedy’s salary one way or the other it would seem.