Soroka has put up some crazy HR/FB rates.
2.8% in 143 innings in High A in 2016
6.8% in 154 innings in AA in 2017
0.0% in 27 innings in AAA in 2018
5.0% in 25 innings in the majors in 2018
3.8% in 45 innings in the majors in 2019
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I am pretty certain he won’t finish with a 1 era. But the fact he has done this over 7 starts against various teams tells me he can probably exceed his FIp on a consistent basis. He is not a strikeout pitcher so his batted ball profile will be below league average. I do wonder how he will age.
Coppy
I do think Soroka has a window to be one of those unicorns who can outperform his metrics to a certain extent, but you are right that he is certainly going to see some regression soon. Its just going to be a matter of degree. Will he limit the regression enough to still be considered ToR? Maybe. But like you said its probably more likely that he becomes a 2 or really good 3 this year. Those numbers leave a LOT of room for regression, though. He's probably going to see at least +.070 points of BABIP regression, +5-6% in HR/FB, and -15% in LOB%.
One important thing to note, though, is just how damn young the kid is. He still has room to improve. He already has great command of his pitches and great sequencing for a kid his age, but those are things that you can hope to improve/refine going into years 3/4/5. Maybe he finds another pitch or something along the way. Lots of ways for him to get to the point where both his performance and his metrics paint him as a ToR type of guy, but thats probably something we shouldn't count on this season.
At any rate, he's certainly going to be a staple in our rotation for a long time provided he can stay healthy.
jpx7 (05-21-2019)
To put these numbers in perspective a bit...
Last year, DeGrom and Bauer led all qualified SPs with a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, and both had career years.
DeGrom had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and is sitting at 15.6% this year.
Bauer had a HR/FB rate of 16.1% in 2017, and a rate of 13.6% this year.
So yes, it's possible for guys to get lucky and sustain an unsustainable rate for a full season. That's usually how a guy has a career season, and it's important to understand why certain performances are unlikely to be repeated going forward. That is accomplished by understanding which stats are predictive, and which ones aren't.
All that matters is big mike is 5-1. That is the true measure we care about. And the only reason he has one loss was because Acuna hit 4th that game. Stupid Snit.
Coppy
In the minors he avoided the super ball being used now. He'll have to start in some of the MLB band boxes with the super ball and HRs will go.
I'm not debating Soroka. Every day he pitches is great and I feel like we have a great chance to win. All I worry about is health.
HR/FB rates have gone through the roof, so I hesitate to point to multi-year periods as recently as five years ago where a great pitcher would generate a multi-season run of low HR/FB rates (below 10). It used to happen. Not sure it is possible given the juiced ball and current approach by hitters.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I've seen or heard multiple executives and evaluators insist that Soroka is a genuine student of the game who out prepares everyone else. Assuming it is true, that is a factor that can't be easily quantified and could certainly result in him outperforming his peripherals consistently.
Go get him!
Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club
Freshmaker (05-21-2019), jpx7 (05-21-2019), Tapate50 (05-21-2019)
I think we’re all fully aware that Soroka is not going to post a 1.01 ERA, have a .203 BABIP, and have an 87.5% LOB in the end.
What can however be debated at least some is the HR/9. With sinkerballers, it’s usually going to be lower. I’d say he regresses to a good but not as insane 0.6-0.8, but in the juiced ball era, do we really know what the norm would be now with a good sinkerballer?
Either way he might be able to be a DIPS beater overall with his smarts but not by “this” much.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.