Austin Riley Apology Thread

[bravesfanMatt]

So does cheff have the power to ban himself if he thinks he crossed the line?

[Enscheff]

Who has said he won't regress? Some of just don't think he's gonna regress into a garbage player.

Halving his current BABIP and HR/FB numbers gets him into the realm of reasonable (.340 and 24%). Those more sustainable rates paired with his current peripherals would translate to a current slash line of about .231/.281/.462 (.742 OPS).

Riley probably isn't an MLB player with his current BB and K rates...nobody is.

I wonder how many folks will be surprised at the severity of Riley's regression if the BB and K rates don't improve?

[Super]

Riley is clearly going to regress big time and have some people ripping their hair out begging for him to sent back down/benched...he's going to need to keep making huge adjustments.

[Enscheff]

So does cheff have the power to ban himself if he thinks he crossed the line?

Apparently I am a moderator of the Extented Spring Training section now. I would suggest just removing it since I won't ever use it and I'd rather not have to read folks whining about it.

[bravesfanMatt]

Apparently I am a moderator of the Extented Spring Training section now. I would suggest just removing it since I won't ever use it and I'd rather not have to read folks whining about it.

I didn’t know it exsisted. Is that where Gohard is?

[msstate7]

Halving his current BABIP and HR/FB numbers gets him into the realm of reasonable (.340 and 24%). Those more sustainable rates paired with his current peripherals would translate to a current slash line of about .231/.281/.462 (.742 OPS).

Riley probably isn't an MLB player with his current BB and K rates...nobody is.

I wonder how many folks will be surprised at the severity of Riley's regression if the BB and K rates don't improve?

Perhaps your projection is correct... no idea, but I'm enjoying what he's doing. Perhaps as pitchers see Riley's crazy numbers he stops seeing so many balls in the zone and that helps his walk rate. All of the projections on fangraphs see his walk rate pretty much doubling and his k rate going down

[bravesfanMatt]

For the record I think Riley’s K and BB numbers are true products of SSS. Pitchers are challenging him and he is hitting thus not walking much. His K rate would be high as he still has to adjust to the pitchers being better. I expect both to float to a normal ~10% bb rate and 22-25 K rate. The next test for Riley is going t o see how he handles pitchers not throwing strike to him because they think he swings and misses too much. We might see an unusually high spike in walks if he handles it.

[msstate7]

The fb/hr rate for Riley is obviously inflated, but I do wonder what his normal rate will be with the new ball. I look at judge, and he never had a fb/hr rate above 20.3 in milb, but he's been 35.6, 29.0, and 35.7 in mlb. Riley was never above 21.4 in the minors before the new ball in AAA this season, and then all-the-sudden, he was 27.8 at AAA and he's at 46.2 in mlb. Again, I don't see any way he stays above 35.0, but could the difference in the ball potentially push him up to 30.0-34.0 range?

[Enscheff]

The fb/hr rate for Riley is obviously inflated, but I do wonder what his normal rate will be with the new ball. I look at judge, and he never had a fb/hr rate above 20.3 in milb, but he's been 35.6, 29.0, and 35.7 in mlb. Riley was never above 21.4 in the minors before the new ball in AAA this season, and then all-the-sudden, he was 27.8 at AAA and he's at 46.2 in mlb. Again, I don't see any way he stays above 35.0, but could the difference in the ball potentially push him up to 30.0-34.0 range?

No. You are severely overstating Riley's raw power talent.

As I pointed out earlier, Riley doesn't hit the ball as hard as JD or Acuna. Acuna's career HR/FB rate is 21.0%, and JD's is 18.4%. I would suggest Riley's true talent HR/FB rate is roughly in that range, and probably a tick lower.

[Enscheff]

Perhaps your projection is correct... no idea, but I'm enjoying what he's doing. Perhaps as pitchers see Riley's crazy numbers he stops seeing so many balls in the zone and that helps his walk rate. All of the projections on fangraphs see his walk rate pretty much doubling and his k rate going down

Riley isn't seeing many balls in the zone as is. His 40.0% Zone% would rank 128 out of 167 qualified batters.

He swings at pitches out of the zone about as often as Javy Baez, who only sees 35.2% of pitches in the zone (least in MLB).

If anything, Riley's current lack of plate discipline will lead to pitchers throwing him fewer strikes as the book on him grows. He will certainly have to improve his plate discipline to remain an MLB hitter...or go the way of Francoeur.

[msstate7]

No. You are severely overstating Riley's raw power talent.

As I pointed out earlier, Riley doesn't hit the ball as hard as JD or Acuna. Acuna's career HR/FB rate is 21.0%, and JD's is 18.4%. I would suggest Riley's true talent HR/FB rate is roughly in that range, and probably a tick lower.

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

[nsacpi]

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

[Jaw]

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

And so far it is alarming.

[bravesfanMatt]

a lot of things in this small sample will obviously not continue...but of all the stats in the sample, the K rate is the first to stabilize so I think its fair to focus on it a bit more than the other stats...but it too could change quite a bit

Yes but it is still too volatile to be precise. I can think of two calls in the Giants series where strike 3 was called that looked like ball 4. Take those 2 K outa d his rate drops by 5 % points.

And yes you can’t just start taking strikeouts away. I know that. But you can see that just 2 less strikeouts moves that needle way too much to be predictive. Let’s see where he is after 100 Pa.

[Runnin]

I don't know anything about Riley's K or zone % stats, only that his swing is so balanced and under control. Nothing about watching him hit reminds me of Jeff Francoeur. His swing and easy power looks more in the line of Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, imo. I'm not saying he's gonna ever be those guys, but man, he's got such a beautifully balanced, easy power swing for a rookie. I don't ever remember seeing a Braves rookie hitter this relaxed and self-assured at the plate. Francoeur and Heyward were spastic in comparison, swinging on pure adrenaline.

[Runnin]

If you got runs based on exit velocity, I think he could swing 10 or 15% harder. Whereas I don't think Acuna or Donaldson could generate much more bat speed.

[Enscheff]

Riley avg exit velocity is 94.3 in a really SSS, but it's all the sample we have right now. That would put him top 10 in mlb right now if he qualified. This obviously may not continue, but not sure why you say he doesn't hit the ball as hard as them. You may be using a different metric though

ETA... I think I get what you're saying bc I don't see Riley listed on the single ball exit velocity leader board

Talking raw power because max exit velocity is one of the first things to stabilize. Riley seems to top out around 110, while JD and Acuna have anther gear that can get to 110+.

Game power is raw power plus hit tool, and that is represented pretty well by average exit velocity on FB/LD, or possibly straight average exit velocity. It takes longer to stabilize, but if you think Riley’s hit tool that results in all these K issues is better than Acuna’s or JD’s, then that’s just an opinion we will have to disagree on...especially with Acuna.

HR/FB rates above about 25% usually belong to thebtruly elite power guys like Stanton, Judge or Gallo. Sometimes a guy like Yelich will go bonkers and post something 30%+. If you think Riley belongs with those hitters, then that’s another opinion we will have to disagree on. I’ll continue to project Riley in the low .300s BABIP and 20% or lower HR/FB.

[Enscheff]

If you got runs based on exit velocity, I think he could swing 10 or 15% harder. Whereas I don't think Acuna or Donaldson could generate much more bat speed.

This has to be the oddest attempt at quantifying something I’ve ever seen.

[Enscheff]

I don't know anything about Riley's K or zone % stats, only that his swing is so balanced and under control. Nothing about watching him hit reminds me of Jeff Francoeur. His swing and easy power looks more in the line of Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, imo. I'm not saying he's gonna ever be those guys, but man, he's got such a beautifully balanced, easy power swing for a rookie. I don't ever remember seeing a Braves rookie hitter this relaxed and self-assured at the plate. Francoeur and Heyward were spastic in comparison, swinging on pure adrenaline.

I hope you come back to give us your take on Riley after the all star break.

[Runnin]

I hope you come back to give us your take on Riley after the all star break.

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.