Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
I don't think we have seen Riley's max exit velocity. Lamb was drafted as a college player and was a bit older by the time he reached the majors. To me Riley is still a raw young player who has just had a very hot/lucky streak to start his career. But his age and minor league record point to a fairly good chance of success. I would be willing to bet his two best seasons exceed Lamb's two best seasons.
While I agree Riley is not a finished product, max exit velocities are a lot like FA velocity and typically decline immediately.

Riley will almost certainly improve his plate discipline numbers, and by extension is K and BB numbers. I wouldn't bet on him improving his exit velocities much, if at all.

I could definitely see Riley streak his way to a 3 win season that's better than anything Lamb has done (his first 50 PAs may have positioned him to beat 2.5 wins this year), but that doesn't make him appreciably better.