Austin Riley Apology Thread

[Enscheff]

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.

I actually wish I had the resources to gather slow motion video from the side of players swinging, and could sync it up with the moment the pitcher released the ball.

I have this idea that the location of the knob of the bat could be tracked pre and post pitch release on takes and swings to determine things like:

1: exact depth of bat load
2: when the hands start/stop moving backwards in relation to pitch release
3: comparing takes vs swings to determine a batter's reaction time
4: exact time between initial forward movement and contact with ball

Gathering all that data on hitters would allow for determining if a slow/long swing is due to pre-pitch load (fixable), post-pitch load (fixable), physiological delay in pitch recognition (probably not fixable), or a lack of the fast twitch athleticism required to quickly swing the bat (perhaps fixable to some extent with specialized training).

[msstate7]

I'll put it on my calender.

I know he's on an absurd hot streak now that won't last, but his swing and approach looks fundamentally solid to me. I'm as interested as anyone to see how he holds up over a long season.

He has 106 games left. He avgs .5 hrs/game... that would be 53 more to make total 60. I think he'll slow down a little bit and end up with 58 for the year. Next season, he sets the all time record with 81

[GeorgiaGirl]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

[UNCBlue012]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

If he's a .270/.350/.550 hitter with 30 or so homers a year, we've hit the jackpot

[Southcack77]

If he's a .270/.350/.550 hitter with 30 or so homers a year, we've hit the jackpot

That's basically slightly lesser Josh Donaldson, so yeah. That would be very valuable in a minimum salary player.

[buck75]

He has 106 games left. He avgs .5 hrs/game... that would be 53 more to make total 60. I think he'll slow down a little bit and end up with 58 for the year. Next season, he sets the all time record with 81

I don’t see any reason he can’t hit a homer every other game for the rest of his career.

[Enscheff]

I don’t see any reason he can’t hit a homer every other game for the rest of his career.

That's before he hits the prime age around 27. By then it should be closer to 1 per game.

[Russ2dollas]

He has a 56.4% contact rate. That to me is scarier than the Ks, because I know that he’ll strike out, just hope it ends up settling in at 22-24%. It’ll be interesting on what it is at 100 PAs, but it’s clear that he’ll have to make some adjustments eventually. I also think he upped his upside though. Before this year I would’ve thought that he’d slash .250/.300/.460ish (maybe a bit higher on the slugging), now I think he can eventually slash something around .270/.350/.550.

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

[AerchAngel]

We can save money and not resign JD.

[msstate7]

We can save money and not resign JD.

Let's see how this year plays out. Might stick with how we using both now

[GeorgiaGirl]

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.

[AerchAngel]

Nah, I think he legit upped his upside from that this year if the adjustments stick for him. Yes before this year, he was likely a .250/.320/.480-.500 guy or roundabouts that, but I think he can do better now.

He has a very sweet swing, Troy Glaus like.

[Super]

That's a hell of a player.

I still think your original thought is more likely. I see a player who looks like a 250/300 hitter to me. The value is in the slugging. I don't think it's crazy to think he can slug around 500. An 800 OPS with average defense would be a big time player.

Hard for me to see a 350 OBP right now.

Riley will probably walk more than .250/.300 leads on considering his power and minor league walk rates.

[msstate7]

Espn ticker said Riley is 4th player in mlb history to hit 8 HRs in first 16 games. Any of you baseball trivia guys know the other 3?

[mqt]

Espn ticker said Riley is 4th player in mlb history to hit 8 HRs in first 16 games. Any of you baseball trivia guys know the other 3?

Story has to be one, I believe.

[drewdat]

Kevin Maas is apparently wrong, but he was fastest to 10 and 15 by ABs

[thethe]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

[CyYoung31]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

No.

[msstate7]

Does Riley get to 30 home runs this year?

Will he play 60 games? If so, yes

[Tapate50]

Will he play 60 games? If so, yes

Hilarious