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Thread: Braves interested in CK and DK

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Their farm is bad, and they dont have a sense of direction.

    Alot of their bullpen guys, Crawford, Posey, Shark, Belt, Bumgarner all have some value. They could replenish the farm very quickly if their ownership committed to doing it.

    I don't think Brandon Crawford has any value. He's 32. He's always been defense first and his defense has been in decline. Now he's below average at the plate, maybe very below average at the plate. And he's owed 15m in 2020 and 2021.

    Posey is basically profiling as a 2.5 win player WITH the defensive metrics figured in. I think he's a perfectly useable player, but who is excited about paying him 22m in 2020 and 2021?

    Belt basically gives you Nick Markakis-esque production at 1B/OF at age 31. He's owed 16m in 2020 and 20201. Useful player perhaps. Going to fetch a big return? Probably not.

    Bumgarner gives you a half year or control for a guy performing like a #4 starter. He could help any number of teams's rotations, but the idea there is going to be a bidding war or big return is probably wrong in my view.

    Samardja is owed 18m next year. His fWar is actually negative because his ERA is wildly out of whack with his FIP. Which is more consistent with his recent career. Would some team like him on the back end of it's rotation down the stretch? Perhaps. Is any team going to give up a ton for it? No, and the Giants probably have to send money.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 05-28-2019 at 04:19 PM.

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  3. #102
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    The case for punting depends mostly on amount of payroll tied up in "deadweight" or unproductive players. The threshold obviously differs by team. It will be much different for the Marlins than the Yankees.

    In the case of the Giants they owe 53M in 2020 to Cueto, Samardzija and Melancon. That's a lot. I don't think they can be competitive next year with that kind of deadweight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    And that's the problem with waiting too long. They have so little of value now, what's the point in tearing it all down?

    The main point would be getting 2-3 draft picks in the Top 3-5 range over the next couple years I guess.

    I suspect they go about "reloading" by flipping all of their rental guys at the deadline until they clear enough payroll to splurge in the FA market in hopes of getting another impact player they can build around...like they did with Bonds. If they can avoid trading any of the impact prospects they do manage to draft, they have the spending capacity to jump into contention a lot like the Phillies did. The Phillies just laid out the blueprint of getting a few good young home grown players, and then splurging in the FA market to build an immediate (short term) contender.

    I agree. They're gonna be bad regardless.

    Since they have resources, I suspect they'll try and come out of it as soon as they can, but it sort of looks like 2020 and 2021 are lost causes. Their question is whether they are going to eat a bunch of money to try and get some middling prospects. I guess they probably should, but might be closer issue on the books than it is on the field.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The case for punting depends mostly on amount of payroll tied up in "deadweight" or unproductive players. The threshold obviously differs by team. It will be much different for the Marlins than the Yankees.

    In the case of the Giants they owe 53M in 2020 to Cueto, Samardzija and Melancon. That's a lot. I don't think they can be competitive next year with that kind of deadweight.
    In 2021 they owe Posey 22m, Cueto 21m, Longoria 18.5m, Crawford 15m, and Belt 16m. I wouldn't want any of those deals on my roster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    In 2021 they owe Posey 22m, Cueto 21m, Longoria 18.5m, Crawford 15m, and Belt 16m. I wouldn't want any of those deals on my roster.
    Nope they are about a year and a half too late on selling a lot of those guys. Huge payroll with little production. At this point they should take anything to start getting rid of what they can. Maybe it is worth taking a flier on MLB type talent to go along with the contracts you can’t move in hopes to catch lighting in a bottle. Either way they can’t fully rebuild until those deals die out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    In 2021 they owe Posey 22m, Cueto 21m, Longoria 18.5m, Crawford 15m, and Belt 16m. I wouldn't want any of those deals on my roster.
    Yeah. It doesn't get any better. Although they stand a chance of getting their money's worth from Posey, Crawford and Belt. I think the Giants' fanbase would be supportive of moving Posey if they got good value in return.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Samardja is owed 18m next year. His fWar is actually negative because his ERA is wildly out of whack with his FIP. Which is more consistent with his recent career. Would some team like him on the back end of it's rotation down the stretch? Perhaps. Is any team going to give up a ton for it? No, and the Giants probably have to send money.
    Along the thought-lines that lead @nsacpi to single out Ian Kennedy, I’d entertain the idea of Samardzija as a potentially useful pen acquisition: nil or negative surplus value, depending on how much cash the Giants might kick in to get out of the contract, so the acquisition cost would be marginal.
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    I expect to read the Braves signed Kimbrel to a 1 year guarantee sometime Monday morning.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    AA on 680the fan right now. Says they have money to spend but at the end of the day “they have a budget”....doesn’t sound promising
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    I agree with Cheff, sometime Monday

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    AA on 680the fan right now. Says they have money to spend but at the end of the day “they have a budget”....doesn’t sound promising
    So they have money to spend meaning they are under budget. If they don’t spend on Kimbrel what else are they going to spend on? I can see them spending on a contract they take on at the trade deadline, but whether it’s now or at the deadline they’ll need bullpen help. So if the choices are spend money or spend money and prospects wouldn’t it make more sense to just sign Kimbrel and save the prospects?

    This makes no sense unless this is all lip service and they don’t spend another penny this season...which is the more likely scenario, unfortunately.

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    They saved cash with the Markakis signing. Before they saved that cash they had already planned to set aside cash for mid-season upgrades. The team is winning, and fans are coming to the park to see them. The worst unit on the MLB roster is the BP, and it isn't particularly close.

    If the Braves can't afford to give Kimbrel $10M-$15M for the remainder of 2019 their financial situation is worse than I feared, and AA/McQuirk were being even more disingenuous in their comments than we thought.

    The only defensible outcome where the Braves don't get Kimbrel is if some other team gives him a multi-year deal, and the Braves are unwilling to commit that much to a BP arm. If he signs for the remainder of this year, or for this year with an option for next year, it better be with the Braves.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

  17. #113
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    I say Kimbrel to the Braves by 9:00 Monday evening at the latest
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    That sounds like either a negotiating ploy, or AA expects Kimbrel to sign elsewhere.
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    Cubs are going to get Kimbrel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    Cubs are going to get Kimbrel.
    Shut your face!

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    The Phillies are going to get Keuchel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    The Phillies are going to get Keuchel.
    Do you enjoy smashing other people's hopes and dreams?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    The Phillies are going to get Keuchel.
    The phils need him
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    I think AA is trying to throw a smoke screen so nobody thinks he had a deal in place before the deadline. If we had holes on offense and the rotation then I’d say maybe not CK but a lesser option, but with the bullpen being the only weakness I’d say say get Kimbrel and one other arm like Smith and see what happens. Adding those 2 would put us ahead of the Phillies imo.

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