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Thread: Around Baseball Offseason Edition - Derek Jeter will retire at seasons end

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    Baltimore has had a bad offseason. They got good deals on Jimenez and Cruz but that's all they've done. They haven't fixed the bullpen and they still don't have enough starting pitching.
    Don't forget that the O's have even less payroll flexibility than the Braves do. And have just reeled off two winning seasons after over a decade of utter failures. Rome wasn't built in a day -- their starting lineup is extremely solid (and young), and Ubaldo and Yoon (possibly Santana) could really solidify their pitching staff. Bullpens are the easiest component of a MLB team to build, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
    Last edited by Hawk; 02-22-2014 at 03:17 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Don't forget that the O's have even less payroll flexibility than the Braves do. And have just reeled off two winning seasons after over a decade of utter failures. Rome wasn't built in a day -- their starting lineup is extremely solid (and young), and Ubaldo and Yoon (possibly Santana) could really solidify their pitching staff. Bullpens are the easiest component of an MLB team to build, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.
    Plus they can trade for Kimbrel when we fall out of contention.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Plus they can trade for Kimbrel when we fall out of contention.
    Can Manny Machado play 2B?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Can Manny Machado play 2B?
    Profar can. But I don't think Kimbrel is enough. How about Kimbrel plus Minor. Rangers will need pitching too, and we can re-tool for 2015. The Gnats are just too good this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Cruz was not a market value signing. He received multiple 2/3 year offers (was originally looking for $18MM per season) but took a 1 year pact with Baltimore at a discount presumably to rebuild value (a risky proposition at 33).

    The Orioles needed to make these kind of acquisitions to be relevant in their division -- rumor is that they are in on Ervin Santana too. Stupendous offseason for them, so far. I pitied the team when they named Dan Duquette GM but he's made some quality moves since taking over.
    How much per year for those 2/3 year offers? He can be asking for 18 per year all he wants but he's not the player he showed in 09 and 10. He's a goodish hitter that is a bad base runner and defender. The market for those type of players aren't that great. Especially when a draft pick is involved.

    Beltran for example only got 15 million a year and he's been a 3 WAR player the last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Looks like they will test the proposition about needing a proven closer. The two WS teams last year lost their closers early on and did fine.
    Well closer wasn't the only spot in their pen last year that was an issue. Their pitching staff as a whole was a mess last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    Well closer wasn't the only spot in their pen last year that was an issue. Their pitching staff as a whole was a mess last year.
    After spring training we'll make a wager if you'd like?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    Well closer wasn't the only spot in their pen last year that was an issue. Their pitching staff as a whole was a mess last year.
    Relievers are a crapshoot. Their pen was quite good two years ago with a similar group of guys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    No team is perfect. Baltimore very easily could have one of the best offense in the American League. Evan Meek if he can get healthy can help their bullpen out. Just a few seasons ago he was pretty solid for Pittsburgh and was an all star that same season. Ubaldo helps solidify a decent rotation as well. Nothing special, but they are far from being bad.
    I never said they were a bad team. I said they've had a bad offseason. They have a great offense. I love their offense. But I don't think they have enough pitching. I think they're going to rack up 80-85 wins but fall short of making one of the WC spots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    After spring training we'll make a wager if you'd like?
    Wager>? What are you talking about dude? If you think the O's are a great team that's going to the playoffs then good for you. I think they end up 80-85 wins again this year, won 83 last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    I never said they were a bad team. I said they've had a bad offseason. They have a great offense. I love their offense. But I don't think they have enough pitching. I think they're going to rack up 80-85 wins but fall short of making one of the WC spots.
    I'd be shocked if the Orioles didn't go 150-12 this season.

    They are the Braves of AL I believe. Their rotation isn't up to par and obviously neither is their closer. 86-90 wins is what I expect and a playoff team as well. Things can change and we all know summer will bring potential starting pitching help as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    Wager>? What are you talking about dude? If you think the O's are a great team that's going to the playoffs then good for you. I think they end up 80-85 wins again this year, won 83 last year.
    Yes a wager. Just to keep things interesting and for fun as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    Yes a wager. Just to keep things interesting and for fun as well.
    Sorry, but I don't play childish games like sig bets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    How much per year for those 2/3 year offers? He can be asking for 18 per year all he wants but he's not the player he showed in 09 and 10. He's a goodish hitter that is a bad base runner and defender. The market for those type of players aren't that great. Especially when a draft pick is involved.

    Beltran for example only got 15 million a year and he's been a 3 WAR player the last year.
    A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

    Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

    The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
    Last edited by Hawk; 02-22-2014 at 06:08 PM.

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    Some data on projected WAR (from Steamer) and ages for the 2014 of corner outfield free agents:

    Granderson 2.0 33
    Beltran 2.0 37
    Chris Young 1.5 30
    Byrd 0.9 36
    Nelson Cruz 1.5 33

    Chris Young is the closest comp to Cruz. Beltran and Granderson are being overpaid if you believe the Steamer projections. The 2014 projections for those two look a bit low to me. I think there is more of a gap between those two and the other 3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

    Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

    The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
    Young also didn't have the price tag of losing a draft pick either. And he was worth 2.5 WAR in 12 and 0.5 in 13. The past two seasons Young and Cruz have had the same value. I just think you overstate Cruz's value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    A player's worth does not entirely define his market value ... in some cases, we've actually seen it be almost completely disregarded.

    Chris Young got $7.5MM this year and is inarguably an inferior player to Cruz. Had the Mets waited to sign him until this point in the offseason do you think he would have received the same amount?

    The market for outfielders (and players, in general) at this point in the offseason is waning. The Orioles got a 45% discount on Cruz's sticker price. That's $2 million cheaper than the Rangers gave Berkman (aged 37) for 256 platoon ABs last season.
    What Cruz has over Young offensively is pretty much wiped out by what Young has over Cruz defensively.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Young also didn't have the price tag of losing a draft pick either. And he was worth 2.5 WAR in 12 and 0.5 in 13. The past two seasons Young and Cruz have had the same value. I just think you overstate Cruz's value.
    Good point about the draft pick ... certainly doesn't seem like Baltimore cares much about their 2014 draft though.

    I have to say that I don't find WAR useful for monetary evaluation of players.

    Cruz dealt with a lot off the field the past two years but still managed to put up pretty decent numbers. I think the signing will pay dividends for the Orioles.
    Last edited by Hawk; 02-22-2014 at 08:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AUTiger7222 View Post
    What Cruz has over Young offensively is pretty much wiped out by what Young has over Cruz defensively.
    Young's defense has been pretty subpar the past two years ... probably won't even start in CF for the NYM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Young's defense has been pretty subpar the past two years ... probably won't even start in CF for the NYM.
    Thats because Lagares is a monster defensively.

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