Pen Targets

[nsacpi]

Now that the Kimbrel Saga has reached a conclusion, I'm ready to move on to a discussion of who we might target and the price we might pay.

Among teams likely to be sellers there are quite a few options: Giles (Blue Jays), Kennedy (Royals), Smith (Giants), Watson (Giants), Colome (White Sox), Greene (Tigers).

I will focus on three from this group that I'm especially interested in.

Will Smith is having a second consecutive fantastic season. 2.01 FIP this year after 2.07 FIP in 2018. This season he has a K rate of 12.7 and a BB rate of 1.6. That's elite. He produced 2 WAR last year and is on track to exceed that this year. His salary this year is 4.2M and he will be a free agent after the season. If we get him at the deadline, we would to project him at 1 WAR in the second half and pay a 50% contenders premium. The salary is low enough to ignore in terms of calculating surplus value. We would have to send the Giants prospects worth about 1.5 WAR. Who might that be? I would give the Giants a list of 5 players and let them choose 2. The list would look something like this: Allard, de la Cruz, Demeritte, Kingman and Jenista. If they are smart, the Giants will ask for a single higher rated player than the guys on this list. But that would be my initial offer.

Ian Kennedy has pitched to a 2.27 FIP this season after making the move to the pen. He doesn't have Smith's record as a reliever but he has been almost as good. This season his K rate is 10.9 and BB rate is 1.5. By comparison Luke Jackson has a K rate of 12.7, a BB rate of 2.4 and FIP of 2.55. If we get Kennedy at the deadline, we would project him at 1 WAR in the second half and with the contenders premium we would have to value it at 1.5 WAR. Unlike Smith, Kennedy has a big contract, calling for 16.5M this year and next. He is being paid the equivalent of 2 WAR per year. Surplus value with that contract is minimal. I think we can get him for one of the players I listed in my discussion of Smith. If the Royals want more I would ask them to pick up half of his 2020 salary and offer him 2 players from the list. Again if they were smart I would expect the Royals to ask for a higher rate prospect rather than 2 players from that list. But that would be my initial offer.

Now for Ken Giles. He has been unbelievable so far this year. FIP of 1.16. K rate of 15.1. BB rate of 2.5. Probably not fully sustainable. I would also project him at 1 WAR in the second half, which with the contenders premium is worth 1.5 WAR. He is making 6.3M this year and will get a raise to 8-9M in 2020, which is his final arb year. I would project him at 2 WAR in 2019. So surplus value of about 2.5 over the period we would have to control. He will cost more in prospect capital than Smith or Kennedy. I would offer him one of: Wentz, Ynoa or Weigel. That would be the opening offer. We would probably have to sweeten it a little.

[Jaw]

I think AA has shown so far that he doesn't place much value on control of relievers, so I can't see paying the price for Giles.

Of those options, I think that Kennedy and his entire contract makes the most sense. O'Days contract going away next year minimizes the salary increase we would take, and taking the entire contract minimizes the prospect value we would spend.

[Tapate50]

I think AA has shown so far that he doesn't place much value on control of relievers, so I can't see paying the price for Giles.

Of those options, I think that Kennedy and his entire contract makes the most sense. O'Days contract going away next year minimizes the salary increase we would take, and taking the entire contract minimizes the prospect value we would spend.

Kennedy would most likely come with some major salary relief. I doubt anyone’s in a spot to add him at full price.

[Jaw]

I agree that's most likely, I just don't think it's the best move for the Braves. And if we had room to offer Brantley more than he got, then we should have room to add Kennedy's salary.

[nsacpi]

I agree that's most likely, I just don't think it's the best move for the Braves. And if we had room to offer Brantley more than he got, then we should have room to add Kennedy's salary.

I would add all Kennedy's remaining 2019 salary and have interest in the Royals picking up part of the 2020 salary. This would represent a compromise that somewhat holds down prospect cost, uses the financial flexibility we have this year, and saves a bit in 2020.

I think Giles is a bit less likely for us than Smith and Kennedy. As more of an established closer, some teams might be willing to pay a closer's premium in addition to the contender's premium. I'm ok with paying the latter but not the former. But if we can get Giles for one of Wentz, Ynoa or Weigel, I would do it in a heartbeat.

[Chico]

Greene and Smith make the most sense to me. Zaidi and AA are close and worked together on the big Dodgers deal with Kemp, so I think dealing with the Giants is a good possibility. Greene makes sense as he has another season of control and probably won't cost too much

[Southcack77]

I think AA has shown so far that he doesn't place much value on control of relievers, so I can't see paying the price for Giles.

Of those options, I think that Kennedy and his entire contract makes the most sense. O'Days contract going away next year minimizes the salary increase we would take, and taking the entire contract minimizes the prospect value we would spend.

Pretty clearly the braves are not taking on a two year salary like Ian Kennedy’s for the bullpen.

There would have to be a lot of money coming back.

If rumors of the braves not being “comfortable” with a one year pro-rated deal at the QO for keuchel, it will be a lot of money coming back for both seasons.

Frankly, if you are willing to take on all kennedy’s money to save a prospect, why not go one extra year for Kimbrel who is a better bet to maintain performance.

[nsacpi]

Pretty clearly the braves are not taking on a two year salary like Ian Kennedy’s for the bullpen.

There would have to be a lot of money coming back.

If rumors of the braves not being “comfortable” with a one year pro-rated deal at the QO for keuchel, it will be a lot of money coming back for both seasons.

Frankly, if you are willing to take on all kennedy’s money to save a prospect, why not go one extra year for Kimbrel who is a better bet to maintain performance.

The two scenarios to be considered are:

Kennedy with the Royals kicking in half of his 2020 salary. We end up paying 16.5M for 1.5 years of control.

With Kimbrel the price is 42M over 2.5 years of control.

Cost per year is 11.0 M for Kennedy.

Cost per year is 16.8 for Kimbrel.

The difference in cost per year favors Kimbrel (when accounting for his likely superior production). The extra year of exposure favors Kennedy. We also have to give up two middling prospects in the scenario I laid out. You can argue it both ways. I don't think breaking it down this way presents a slam dunk for one case or the other.

[Southcack77]

The two scenarios to be considered are:

Kennedy with the Royals kicking in half of his 2020 salary. We end up paying 16.5M for 1.5 years of control.

With Kimbrel the price is 42M over 2.5 years of control.

Cost per year is 11.0 M for Kennedy.

Cost per year is 16.8 for Kimbrel.

The difference in cost per year favors Kimbrel (when accounting for his likely superior production). The extra year of exposure favors Kennedy. We also have to give up two middling prospects in the scenario I laid out. You can argue it both ways. I don't think breaking it down this way presents a slam dunk for one case or the other.

I think the answer is that the braves will likely do neither.

Maybe if there is more in the deal with royals...plus money.

[nsacpi]

I think the answer is that the braves will likely do neither.

I think they will make one significant pen acquisition.

[Southcack77]

I think they will make one significant pen acquisition.

They’ll do something for sure, but my guess is they don’t see it as an urgent problemor something worth putting big resources into.

Else the pen would look different than it does.

[PurpleBrave]

Diekman would be solid. Everyone fixated on will smith, but dyson would be a solid add too

[clvclv]

Braves don't need pen help - didn't need it over the winter, don't need it now. Dig real hard and you'll find that the new QWERTYASDFGZXCVB Metric shows that these guys are actually the best group of RPs in the game.

[nsacpi]

Braves don't need pen help - didn't need it over the winter, don't need it now. Dig real hard and you'll find that the new QWERTYASDFGZXCVB Metric shows that these guys are actually the best group of RPs in the game.

that's why AA skipped the winter meetings...so he could work on this new metric

[clvclv]

that's why AA skipped the winter meetings...so he could work on this new metric

6 more months and it will be perfected.

Hopefully by then no one will any longer look at W/L records to decide if teams had a good season.

[Enscheff]

Braves don't need pen help - didn't need it over the winter, don't need it now. Dig real hard and you'll find that the new QWERTYASDFGZXCVB Metric shows that these guys are actually the best group of RPs in the game.

Aaaaaand....derp...all over this thread.

[Enscheff]

There are currently 21 BP arms who have thrown 20+ IP for teams with playoff odds less than 10%, and have both FIP and xFIP under 4:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/sp...4,IP%7Cgt%7C20

Those are the potential trade target, in my opinion. Those are also the guys who are currently performing decently in 2019.

Plugging those names in Baseball Savant search, and ordering them by xwOBA over 2018/2019 gives us a ranking of those guys in terms of who has sustained the most success over the course of ~1.5 seasons:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc..._pas=0#results

Will Smith appears to be the clear #1 target via trade, in my opinion.

Other good options who don't walk a ton of batters appear to be guys like Vazquez, Watson, Hernandez, and Giles.

[Buzzworm]

I don’t think the Braves should do anything.
They clearly don’t think they are in a true title window with this team(which I agree with since I think we are a year ahead of schedule)cause if they did they would have gotten the one or two pieces that were free agents that were on the market instead of giving up prospects for lesser options.
I say we use our young pitchers to try to help the rotation and pen and save all our bullets for next season..(unless we don’t have any in which case we may as well be content with being a fringe contender for the foreseeable future)

[Russ2dollas]

I have no idea how Weigel is looking to our front office.

If there is any chance he can get to 75 percent or better of what he was pre injury I’m not dealing him for a reliever.

I really liked him before the injury.

[TheBravos]

Weigel and Ynoa plus ...that’s our pen.