GDT 6/9/19: Breaking out the brooms

[thethe]

When does that future performance start? Because it hasn't been this season so far.

Lets see where he ends up. From my vantage point he is already on his way there.

[Enscheff]

There are a few people on this board who have proven to be wrong so consistently you can take it as a good sign when they disagree with you.

tehteh has proven beyond all doubt to be one of those posters.

[thewupk]

Lets see where he ends up. From my vantage point he is already on his way there.

Maybe he will get there the last 1/3rd of the season

[Carp]

Hard not to harp on it when things are said like Gausman is as good as bumgarner.

Despite Gausman's struggles, he has .3 less fWAR than MadBum in 17 less innings pitched. Gausman also carrying around a 4.01 FIP compared to MadBum's 3.88 FIP. They are much closer than you give it credit for. Gausman has been extremely unlucky.

[Enscheff]

Despite Gausman's struggles, he has .3 less fWAR than MadBum in 17 less innings pitched. Gausman also carrying around a 4.01 FIP compared to MadBum's 3.88 FIP. They are much closer than you give it credit for. Gausman has been extremely unlucky.

Gausman:
.342 wOBA - .319 xwOBA = +.023 delta (unlucky)

Bumgarner:
.312 wOBA - .332 xwOBA = -.020 delta (lucky)

There have been 103 pitchers who have faced 250+ batters in 2019: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc...as=250#results

Of those 103 pitches, Gausman has been the 8th unluckiest. Bumgarner has been the 24th luckiest.

Other lucky Braves pitchers have been Soroka (#1 in MLB), and Teheran (#10).

I'm not sure why we have to keep going over why some things are unsustainable for the benefit of the dumber board members, but apparently it has to happen at least one more time.

[Freshmaker]

Well, the only reason you might want MadBum is for the playoffs. Specifically vs the Dodgers. As we all know, they crush RHP. Per Bref they have a sOPS+ of 129 vs LHP this season, as opposed to a 105 sOPS+ against RHP. Folty got torched Game 1 last year, Sanchez was actually good game 2 but he's gone. To get to the WS we're almost assuredly going to have to go through LA. Keuchel is a good start. I guess we roll with him, Soroka and Fried (tho they might not even be available then, or be fatigued). I agree with that he's not a big upgrade over our rotation for the regular season, but October is where we could use him

[Freshmaker]

Also of note:

[Enscheff]

Well, the only reason you might want MadBum is for the playoffs. Specifically vs the Dodgers. As we all know, they crush RHP. Per Bref they have a sOPS+ of 129 vs LHP this season, as opposed to a 105 sOPS+ against RHP. Folty got torched Game 1 last year, Sanchez was actually good game 2 but he's gone. To get to the WS we're almost assuredly going to have to go through LA. Keuchel is a good start. I guess we roll with him, Soroka and Fried (tho they might not even be available then, or be fatigued). I agree with that he's not a big upgrade over our rotation for the regular season, but October is where we could use him

This is a good point, and is a mindset we aren't used to having around here...strategy for the playoffs.

Matching up against the Dodgers may have made DK a bit more valuable to the Braves.

[Carp]

Gausman:
.342 wOBA - .319 xwOBA = +.023 delta (unlucky)

Bumgarner:
.312 wOBA - .332 xwOBA = -.020 delta (lucky)

There have been 103 pitchers who have faced 250+ batters in 2019: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc...as=250#results

Of those 103 pitches, Gausman has been the 8th unluckiest. Bumgarner has been the 24th luckiest.

Other lucky Braves pitchers have been Soroka (#1 in MLB), and Teheran (#10).

I'm not sure why we have to keep going over why some things are unsustainable for the benefit of the dumber board members, but apparently it has to happen at least one more time.

He keeps bringing up xFIP, which is ok I guess, but xFIP doesn't adjust for park factors. xFIP- actually favors Gausman.

[Southcack77]

I think it was MLB trade rumors that mentioned Felipe Vasquez as someone the Pirates might move at a high price.

Controlled through 2021 with10m option for 2022 and 2023.

Curious what a high price for that contract would be in the current environment. Alex likes controllable players back in his trades.

[Tapate50]

There are a few people on this board who have proven to be wrong so consistently you can take it as a good sign when they disagree with you.

tehteh has proven beyond all doubt to be one of those posters.

STAHP, thethe gets plenty right.

But then again, I wasn't aware this is was a place where everyone's musings had to be legitimized.

[Enscheff]

He keeps bringing up xFIP, which is ok I guess, but xFIP doesn't adjust for park factors. xFIP- actually favors Gausman.

He has a history of gaining just enough understanding about something to confirm his preconceived notions. At that point he just continues to blabber on the same ignorant opinion endlessly despite any other facts/metrics/stats/history.

When he is inevitably proven wrong, the playbook becomes claiming he doesn't care that he's always wrong because it's just a message board, and then jumping onto the next incorrect opinion. If it gets especially moronic he disappears for a couple weeks, only to return with a vengeance of ignorance.

[UNCBlue012]

Also of note:

He would come in Handy during the playoff race, for sure.

[atl717]

He has a history of gaining just enough understanding about something to confirm his preconceived notions. At that point he just continues to blabber on the same ignorant opinion endlessly despite any other facts/metrics/stats/history.

When he is inevitably proven wrong, the playbook becomes claiming he doesn't care that he's always wrong because it's just a message board, and then jumping onto the next incorrect opinion. If it gets especially moronic he disappears for a couple weeks, only to return with a vengeance of ignorance.

I enjoyed the Austin Riley went to a 65 FV based on a 15 game stretch. Obviously Riley is good, but he's king of judging players during their hottest stretches.

[Enscheff]

Riley is a fine young player. He will probably be a useful MLB piece. He hit a bunch of HRs that turned the Braves offense around for a Couple weeks. It was awesome to watch.

Now Riley is in the midst of serious regression everyone with half a clue knew was coming.

[UNCBlue012]

Riley is a fine young player. He will probably be a useful MLB piece. He hit a bunch of HRs that turned the Braves offense around for a Couple weeks. It was awesome to watch.

Now Riley is in the midst of serious regression everyone with half a clue knew was coming.

Yup - it's the #MyAce effect, honestly. I love Max, I think he's a good young pitcher, but I wasn't stupid enough to actually think it wasn't coming. I'm sure Soroka will experience it as well, just not to the same degree. lol