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Thread: GDT 6/10/19: Running it back vs the Pirates

  1. #461
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    So those few hot months didn’t happen or do we exclude them for everyone else too?
    It's called getting lucky. His numbers are remarkably consistent over the last 6+ years using WRC+

    2013 1st Half: 98
    2013 2nd Half: 72
    2014 1st Half: 110
    2014 2nd Half: 99
    2015 1st Half: 106
    2015 2nd Half: 107
    2016 1st Half: 86
    2016 2nd Half: 113
    2017 1st Half: 99
    2017 2nd Half: 86
    2018 1st Half: 133
    2018 2nd Half: 88
    2019 1st Half: 108


    There is one number in these half seasons that stands out way more than the others

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    So those few hot months didnít happen or do we exclude them for everyone else too?
    come ahhhhn
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It's called getting lucky. His numbers are remarkably consistent over the last 6+ years using WRC+

    2013 1st Half: 98
    2013 2nd Half: 72
    2014 1st Half: 110
    2014 2nd Half: 99
    2015 1st Half: 106
    2015 2nd Half: 107
    2016 1st Half: 86
    2016 2nd Half: 113
    2017 1st Half: 99
    2017 2nd Half: 86
    2018 1st Half: 133
    2018 2nd Half: 88
    2019 1st Half: 108


    There is one number in these half seasons that stands out way more than the others
    yes correct
    "This is the end of my presidency. I'm ****ed." - Donald J. Trump, innocent and totally exonerated man, upon hearing a special counsel has been appointed to investigate him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    he looks like the same right around average hitter he has been since 2013. outside a couple of months, he's been that guy for a long time.

    You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

    Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
    May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

    2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
    2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


    But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

    In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was, but it seems to be true. He is not a superstar by any stretch, but he's more than playable on a good team. he should lead off vs RHP, honestly.

    I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 06-11-2019 at 01:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

    Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
    May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

    2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
    2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


    But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

    In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was then, but it seems to be true. I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
    Nothing gives this board the red ass like posters not trashing markakis and thethe making predictions/statements about players

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

    Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
    May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

    2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
    2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


    But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

    In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was then, but it seems to be true. I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
    he's a 108 wRC+ this year.
    he was at 114 wRC+ last year fueled by an unsustainable 133 number in the first half - a number far out of line with what he had done since 2013.
    it's already been broken down:

    2013 1st Half: 98
    2013 2nd Half: 72
    2014 1st Half: 110
    2014 2nd Half: 99
    2015 1st Half: 106
    2015 2nd Half: 107
    2016 1st Half: 86
    2016 2nd Half: 113
    2017 1st Half: 99
    2017 2nd Half: 86
    2018 1st Half: 133
    2018 2nd Half: 88
    2019 1st Half: 108

    which of those numbers is the obvious outlier? i mean, you really can't see it? for real for real?
    i'd bet he'll sink below the 108 for the 2nd half of this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Nothing gives this board the red ass like posters not trashing markakis and thethe making predictions/statements about players
    i hope i'm wrong about him. nothing outside a hot few months last season suggests i am. i am not thrilled with a league-average or below guy being the full-time RF - wild, i know.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i hope i'm wrong about him. nothing outside a hot few months last season suggests i am. i am not thrilled with a league-average or below guy being the full-time RF - wild, i know.
    You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    he's a 108 wRC+ this year.
    he was at 114 wRC+ last year fueled by an unsustainable 133 number in the first half - a number far out of line with what he had done since 2013.
    it's already been broken down:

    2013 1st Half: 98
    2013 2nd Half: 72
    2014 1st Half: 110
    2014 2nd Half: 99
    2015 1st Half: 106
    2015 2nd Half: 107
    2016 1st Half: 86
    2016 2nd Half: 113
    2017 1st Half: 99
    2017 2nd Half: 86
    2018 1st Half: 133
    2018 2nd Half: 88
    2019 1st Half: 108

    which of those numbers is the obvious outlier? i mean, you really can't see it? for real for real?
    i'd bet he'll sink below the 108 for the 2nd half of this year.

    Maybe you and Virginia should get together for a beer and discuss how much you don't understand why people want to use the new-fangled metrics.


    But if you want to use old school metrics, Markakis is hitting 8% above the major league average despite getting extremely unlucky ball in play results in May.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.
    why did it only benefit him for a few months and then drop off
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Maybe you and Virginia should get together for a beer and discuss how much you don't understand why people want to use the new-fangled metrics.


    But if you want to use old school metrics, Markakis is hitting 8% above the major league average despite getting extremely unlucky ball in play results in May.
    lmao is wRC+ an outdated statistic, equal to RBI?
    his BABIP was .364 in March/April.........................................for the season, it's .294.................
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.

    If you look at xwOBA, Markakis has been this guy in 3 of the last 4 seasons:

    2016 .343
    2018 .345
    2019 .343

    Whatever reason he was making weak contact in 2015 and 2017.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    If you look at xwOBA, Markakis has been this guy in 3 of the last 4 seasons:

    2016 .343
    2018 .345
    2019 .343

    Whatever reason he was making weak contact in 2015 and 2017.
    1.2 WAR in 2016
    2.6 last year
    will be around 1-1.2 this year
    yippee he's actually good?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    lmao is wRC+ an outdated statistic, equal to RBI?
    his BABIP was .364 in March/April.........................................for the season, it's .294.................

    Sorry, man. Hate to be the one to break it to you. Maybe borrow that sixth grade math book that the Mississippi people all share and catch up. DeNiro did it in that one movie. you can too.

    .....

    His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300, his .220 BABIP in May is still grossly low.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    1.2 WAR in 2016
    2.6 last year
    will be around 1-1.2 this year
    yippee he's actually good?

    Do you know what the x stands for in xwOBA?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Sorry, man. Hate to be the one to break it to you. Maybe borrow that sixth grade math book that the Mississippi people all share and catch up. DeNiro did it in that one movie. you can too.

    .....

    His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300, his .220 BABIP in May is still grossly low.
    LOL
    you're citing his unlucky May as some sort of evidence of something.....
    i cited his basically equally lucky March/April.......
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Do you know what the x stands for in xwOBA?
    i do.
    what does that have to do with him putting up yet another 1-1.2 WAR season?
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    i'm pretty sure wRC/wRC+ incorporates wOBA so calling wRC+ an "old school metric" while wOBA is "new fangled" is interesting.
    "This is the end of my presidency. I'm ****ed." - Donald J. Trump, innocent and totally exonerated man, upon hearing a special counsel has been appointed to investigate him.

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    [QUOTE=Southcack77;600732

    His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300, his .220 BABIP in May is still grossly low.[/QUOTE]

    sorry, man. his BABIP in May was .235, not .220.
    and sorry, man, but his BABIP in March/April was .364.
    to be real rough with it, if you add those numbers together and divide by 2, what do ya get?
    sorry, man - hate to be the one to break it to you....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    sorry, man. his BABIP in May was .235, not .220.
    and sorry, man, but his BABIP in March/April was .364.
    to be real rough with it, if you add those numbers together and divide by 2, what do ya get?
    sorry, man - hate to be the one to break it to you....
    Or you could just look at his total for the year, .294. That's 20 points lower than career

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