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Thread: GDT 6/10/19: Running it back vs the Pirates

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    He's 7th in WAR among position players. If it wasn't for a bad back from Ender he would be the worst regular on the team.
    I get confused on when fWAR is valid for player value and when it isn't. Bumgarner is 1.1 fWAR to Gausman's 0.8 (31.6% better), but bumgarner isn't better. In nick's case though...

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    He's 7th in WAR among position players. If it wasn't for a bad back from Ender he would be the worst regular on the team.
    Muk, Joyce, Camargo and Riley should be mixed and matched so everyone stays sharp and rested. I understand 2 of them have been getting most of the playing time. Muk because he is the established incumbent. And Riley because he got off to a blazing start. But those four are pretty much equivalent in terms of the value they are likely to provide going forward this season. As it turns out Camargo and Riley are better against lefties and Muk and Joyce better against righties. Platoons in left and right, not necessarily strict ones, might be the best way to go with those four. I'm not a believer in going with the hot hand based on small samples. We are seeing why with Riley and others.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 06-11-2019 at 10:30 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    hey why use numbers that encompass all of this and more (the "more" being the parts that drag Nick down to his real level) when i can cherry pick and make him look better than he is?
    Like WAR, I knew you'd admit bumgarner is better than Gausman

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    I get confused on when fWAR is valid for player value and when it isn't. Bumgarner is 1.1 fWAR to Gausman's 0.8 (31.6% better), but bumgarner isn't better. In nick's case though...
    I know it's easy to get confused. Neck is clearly a below average player. He's been that way in ever year for the Braves except last year in which he had a super hot 1st half. Literally every other time with the Braves he has been what you see now. No amount of rest will change that. He is who he is.

    Re: Bumgardner and Gausman. Both are the same type of pitcher. I don't know how many stats you need to show that being the case. Both Julio and Fried are in this neighborhood as well. Whether one is a fraction better or not doesn't really matter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I know it's easy to get confused. Neck is clearly a below average player. He's been that way in ever year for the Braves except last year in which he had a super hot 1st half. Literally every other time with the Braves he has been what you see now. No amount of rest will change that. He is who he is.

    Re: Bumgardner and Gausman. Both are the same type of pitcher. I don't know how many stats you need to show that being the case. Both Julio and Fried are in this neighborhood as well. Whether one is a fraction better or not doesn't really matter.
    You wanna take enscheff's bet too? I'll give you the Gausman +0.2 fWAR

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Like WAR, I knew you'd admit bumgarner is better than Gausman
    ???
    when did i say he wasn't?
    solid to not address the topic at hand tho.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    History?
    history says players get an extra 0.5 WAR if they get more rest? i'd be interested to see that data.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    You wanna take enscheff's bet too? I'll give you the Gausman +0.2 fWAR
    No because I don't care either way about Bumgardner. He's a middle of the road pitcher that people only care about because he was really good a few years ago in the playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Muk, Joyce, Camargo and Riley should be mixed and matched so everyone stays sharp and rested. I understand 2 of them have been getting most of the playing time. Muk because he is the established incumbent. And Riley because he got off to a blazing start. But those four are pretty much equivalent in terms of the value they are likely to provide going forward this season. As it turns out Camargo and Riley are better against lefties and Muk and Joyce better against righties. Platoons in left and right, not necessarily strict ones, might be the best way to go with those four. I'm not a believer in going with the hot hand based on small samples. We are seeing why with Riley and others.
    Double platoon

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    ???
    when did i say he wasn't?
    solid to not address the topic at hand tho.
    You should email AA.... he seems to be the one you have a problem with on markakis. I have no problem with the markakis signing... saving there helped us get Donaldson and Dallas imo

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Double platoon
    Something like that. Donaldson also needs a day off every week. So there should be enough playing time for everyone concerned. In spite of the complaints around here, Snit has been resting Muk fairly regularly the last few weeks. I'd rest him a little more, and wouldn't be surprised to see that happen the rest of the season.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    You should email AA.... he seems to be the one you have a problem with on markakis. I have no problem with the markakis signing... saving there helped us get Donaldson and Dallas imo
    despite the numbers you posted, Markakis will likely end up being below average this year. that's the point that you sidestepped with the straw man.
    an upgrade could potentially become available that doesn't cost much $. but Markakis probably won't be relegated to the bench, even if a clear upgrade presents itself. that's my issue.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Something like that. Donaldson also needs a day off every week. So there should be enough playing time for everyone concerned. In spite of the complaints around here, Snit has been resting Muk fairly regularly the last few weeks. I'd rest him a little more, and wouldn't be surprised to see that happen the rest of the season.
    The team really needs Ender to come back and be healthy. A Muk/Riley platoon would be the best with Camargo super subbing around the field and Joyce/Charlie the main PHs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    The team really needs Ender to come back and be healthy. A Muk/Riley platoon would be the best with Camargo super subbing around the field and Joyce/Charlie the main PHs.
    So you are running a shorter BP in your scenario?
    Coppy

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    Joyce would probably be a similar player ROS as Markakis...
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    So you are running a shorter BP in your scenario?
    I would unless upgrades are made. When some of them suck as much as they do then they are better off not on the team at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    The team really needs Ender to come back and be healthy. A Muk/Riley platoon would be the best with Camargo super subbing around the field and Joyce/Charlie the main PHs.
    It's hard to say when Ender will be back and what kind of player he will be at that point. The back issue doesn't seem to be a simple one.

    Until then a time share between Muk, Joyce, Riley and Camargo for the two corner outfield spots makes sense. I think Camargo and Riley should be out there against virtually all lefties. Against righties, I won't get too exercised about how the starts should be allocated. As long as all four are given enough games to be both rested and sharp.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    It's hard to say when Ender will be back and what kind of player he will be at that point. The back issue doesn't seem to be a simple one.

    Until then a time share between Muk, Joyce, Riley and Camargo for the two corner outfield spots makes sense. I think Camargo and Riley should be out there against virtually all lefties. Against righties, I won't get too exercised about how the starts should be allocated. As long as all four are given enough games to be both rested and sharp.
    I don't think Ender coming back and being healthy is all that likely. Which sucks because if he was he's clearly the 2nd best OF on the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I don't think Ender coming back and being healthy is all that likely. Which sucks because if he was he's clearly the 2nd best OF on the team.
    Yeah. A lot of people took a 3 WAR center fielder for granted.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    SSS brigade sounds like the people who want to pretend he's something he isn't. that being the player he was in the 1st half of last year...and not at any other time the last 5 years.

    he had a 104 wRC+ vs. lefties last year.
    it's 43 (!!!) this year.
    it was 89 in 2017.
    66 in 2016.
    75 in 2015.
    Platooning him is the easiest, simplest, most basic call that should be made. more should be done, though.
    Markakis will be right around 1 WAR this year (despite you saying he'd be better in the offseason). that's a tough pill to swallow for a contending team when there could be options.

    Point of fact: I've never predicted how many wins Markakis will put up in 2019. Or said he'd be "better" (whatever that means) during the offseason.

    I'm well aware of his career profile, it's been discussed about 6,000 times. I've literally never disputed that he will likely regress from last season and it's always been quite possible that he would have his worst season.

    I know you are beside yourself over getting a .220 BABIP month out of Markakis. Enjoy it. These are the simple pleasures of life.

    I'm always been fine with upgrading Markakis, but the Braves were not signing Harper. McCutchen and Pollock were bad deals. Brantley preferred Houston. Most of the proposed trades for OFs around here were never going to happen. Some of them were actually quite dumb.

    Nothing prevents Alex from making a move to upgrade Markakis though, certainly not the bargain contract Markakis signed.

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