GDT 6/10/19: Running it back vs the Pirates

[thewupk]

Yeah. A lot of people took a 3 WAR center fielder for granted.

Now we have a 5 WAR center fielder

[Buzzworm]

I hope the Braves keep Newk in the pen the rest of this year.
I really believe he could be our lesser version of Andrew Miller as long as Snit will use him in multiple innings.
Since we are probably going to be short a piece in the BP anyways may as well let him take 2 innings at a time.
If we have to have a spot start sat then I say let Touki pitch it unless DK is ready.
Also glad Ozzie doesn't suck anymore.I was worried he was going to be in the minors the rest of the season and have to give up switch hitting.
Glad he doesn’t read the board.

[nsacpi]

Now we have a 5 WAR center fielder

ha...can't argue with that

[Enscheff]

Neck needing rest is overblown. Hes just not good.

The rest could (and should) be accomplished by limiting his PAs against LHP. Two birds with one stone kind of thing.

[thethe]

Now we have a 5 WAR center fielder

Easy peezy

[Southcack77]

history says players get an extra 0.5 WAR if they get more rest? i'd be interested to see that data.

This board has a healthy respect for the efficacy of rest.

[nsacpi]

This board has a healthy respect for the efficacy of rest.

there is a dark secret agenda hiding behind "rest"

[thewupk]

The rest could (and should) be accomplished by limiting his PAs against LHP. Two birds with one stone kind of thing.

If it were only that simple

[Southcack77]

I don't think Ender coming back and being healthy is all that likely. Which sucks because if he was he's clearly the 2nd best OF on the team.

Oh 3 WAR Ender? Won't see him no more.

[Enscheff]

I get confused on when fWAR is valid for player value and when it isn't. Bumgarner is 1.1 fWAR to Gausman's 0.8 (31.6% better), but bumgarner isn't better. In nick's case though...

I know you get confused. The source of your confusion is likely that WAR is a counting stat, while xwOBA is a rate stat. And math is hard.

WAR is effectiveness over time.

xwOBA is just effectiveness.

So when you say MadBum has 1.1 WAR over 87 IP, Gaus has 0.8 WAR over 62 IP, so therefore MadBum is better, you look like an idiot who doesn't understand 6th grade math. It's like saying the player with 11 HRs in 87 PAs is a better power hitter than the guy with 8 HRs in 62 PAs.

If two pitchers are similar in effectiveness, and one has more IP than the other, simple math dictates the guy with more IP will have a higher WAR.

Now yes, being able to complete innings certainly has value. That's why SPs are more valuable than RPs, even though RPs have a much lower xwOBA. However, moving forward, when Gausman irons out whatever is going on, he will be more effective than MadBum and his WAR will climb faster as he accumulates IP like he customarily has through his entire career.

Let me know if you are still confused. I think I have a 6th grade math textbook lying around somewhere I can reference for help.

[The Chosen One]

I know you get confused. The source of your confusion is likely that WAR is a counting stat, while xwOBA is a rate stat. And math is hard.

WAR is effectiveness over time.

xwOBA is just effectiveness.

So when you say MadBum has 1.1 WAR over 87 IP, Gaus has 0.8 WAR over 62 IP, so therefore MadBum is better, you look like an idiot who doesn't understand 6th grade math. It's like saying the player with 11 HRs in 87 PAs is a better power hitter than the guy with 8 HRs in 62 PAs.

If two pitchers are similar in effectiveness, and one has more IP than the other, simple math dictates the guy with more IP will have a higher WAR.

Now yes, being able to complete innings certainly has value. That's why SPs are more valuable than RPs, even though RPs have a much lower xwOBA. However, moving forward, when Gausman irons out whatever is going on, he will be more effective than MadBum and his WAR will climb faster as he accumulates IP like he customarily has through his entire career.

Let me know if you are still confused. I think I have a 6th grade math textbook lying around somewhere I can reference for help.

I will be happy to use that textbook if you can find it.

[Carp]

Neck needing rest is overblown. Hes just not good.

1,000 ribbies though.

[thewupk]

1,000 ribbies though.

you got me

[NinersSBChamps]

I get confused on when fWAR is valid for player value and when it isn't. Bumgarner is 1.1 fWAR to Gausman's 0.8 (31.6% better), but bumgarner isn't better. In nick's case though...

Just don’t bother. If you don’t understand one of the hundred made up stats that someone created who probably never touched a baseball or a boob on their life, then you are dumb. That is why so many people don’t follow the game anymore like they used to. You get these arrogant talkings heads or our resident asshole going on about their advanced metrics and it almost always ends in a personal attack. You don’t understand this stat so you are stupid. This type of mentality is why baseball is not what is used to be.

[NinersSBChamps]

To be fair and I have said this before. thewupk can use those fancy terms and stats and not be a dick about it. There are probably more people like him on here, but there is plenty that fall in the other camp.

[thewupk]

Just don’t bother. If you don’t understand one of the hundred made up stats that someone created who probably never touched a baseball or a boob on their life, then you are dumb. That is why so many people don’t follow the game anymore like they used to. You get these arrogant talkings heads or our resident asshole going on about their advanced metrics and it almost always ends in a personal attack. You don’t understand this stat so you are stupid. This type of mentality is why baseball is not what is used to be.

I find it curious you think advanced stats are 'made up' but don't feel that way about any number of traditional stats which at some point were 'made up' as well.

[Enscheff]

I find it curious you think advanced stats are 'made up' but don't feel that way about any number of traditional stats which at some point were 'made up' as well.

I also find it curious that Niners thinks my baseball career can be described as "never touched a baseball", when in fact I played at a higher level than anyone he knows.

[Super]

Just don’t bother. If you don’t understand one of the hundred made up stats that someone created who probably never touched a baseball or a boob on their life, then you are dumb. That is why so many people don’t follow the game anymore like they used to. You get these arrogant talkings heads or our resident asshole going on about their advanced metrics and it almost always ends in a personal attack. You don’t understand this stat so you are stupid. This type of mentality is why baseball is not what is used to be.

the flagrant stupidity and ignorance and then saying things like "...from people who probably never touched a baseball or boob in their life" is what gets you attacked.

we get it. you don't understand numbers, math, statistics. that's not the issue. it's the ignorance and arrogance that goes along with not understanding those things.

it's great that you feel people who look at the hard data "have never touched a baseball or boob in their life." when evaluating players, most front offices use these numbers and not...RBI. so i'd prefer to judge players that way, too.

it's great you want to conserve the "old way" and not adapt. just don't be upset when the times pass you by.

[Super]

Point of fact: I've never predicted how many wins Markakis will put up in 2019. Or said he'd be "better" (whatever that means) during the offseason.

I'm well aware of his career profile, it's been discussed about 6,000 times. I've literally never disputed that he will likely regress from last season and it's always been quite possible that he would have his worst season.

I know you are beside yourself over getting a .220 BABIP month out of Markakis. Enjoy it. These are the simple pleasures of life.

I'm always been fine with upgrading Markakis, but the Braves were not signing Harper. McCutchen and Pollock were bad deals. Brantley preferred Houston. Most of the proposed trades for OFs around here were never going to happen. Some of them were actually quite dumb.

Nothing prevents Alex from making a move to upgrade Markakis though, certainly not the bargain contract Markakis signed.

I was far more happy in the first month of the season when Neck was, again, overperforming. I am far less happy to realize he has settled back in to who he truly is earlier this season.
you didn't want to put a number on it...but thought 1-1.5 WAR was low, IIRC. he will settle in at right around 1 WAR. yippee.
the fact they haven't even begun platooning him tells me they won't look to upgrade there. i hope i'm wrong. but i don't see it.

[Carp]

I was far more happy in the first month of the season when Neck was, again, overperforming. I am far less happy to realize he has settled back in to who he truly is earlier this season.
you didn't want to put a number on it...but thought 1-1.5 WAR was low, IIRC. he will settle in at right around 1 WAR. yippee.
the fact they haven't even begun platooning him tells me they won't look to upgrade there. i hope i'm wrong. but i don't see it.

He had a terrible May but is back on track so far in June. I predict he'll be a 1.5 fWAR player by seasons end, assuming health.