Fangraphs midseason prospect updates

[CJ9]

Here's their updated Braves list: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...num=0&team=atl

On the overall top 100 (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...0000&pagenum=0), we have a lot of big movers. New top 100 rankings, FV in parenthesis:

Pache 15 (60)
Riley 25 (55)
Anderson 35 (55)
Waters 37 (55)
Wright 44 (55)
Contreras 47 (50)
Gohara 63 (50)
Wilson 72 (50)

Muller went from a 45 to a 45+.

[thewupk]

With Riley showing positives at the major league level I have no doubts about Pache and Waters. The Braves are simply hitting on all of their top position prospects right now. That is how you build a dynasty. Early 90's all over again.

[Tapate50]

With Riley showing positives at the major league level I have no doubts about Pache and Waters. The Braves are simply hitting on all of their top position prospects right now. That is how you build a dynasty. Early 90's all over again.

There really is little doubt about Pache and Waters at their respective age\level. Waters just keeps on hitting and the power from both has been really positive.

[DirkPiggler]

There really is little doubt about Pache and Waters at their respective age\level. Waters just keeps on hitting and the power from both has been really positive.

I haven't been a believer at all in Pache's bat to this point, but what he's doing in a park that strongly favors pitchers has changed my mind.

[Carp]

Lorenzo Cain starting to look like a good comp for Pache?

[Nerfherders]

I can't wait to see what Pache and Waters do at AAA with the juiced ball.

[The Chosen One]

With Riley showing positives at the major league level I have no doubts about Pache and Waters. The Braves are simply hitting on all of their top position prospects right now. That is how you build a dynasty. Early 90's all over again.

THE COPPER COPPOLLELA'S ARE ARRIVING.

[Super]

THE COPPER COPPOLLELA'S ARE ARRIVING.

Good Cops is so much better. just because "golden wren" has a color doesn't mean all the brigade nicknames do

[Carp]

Good Cops is garbage. Copper Coppolella's it is.

[msstate7]

With Riley showing positives at the major league level I have no doubts about Pache and Waters. The Braves are simply hitting on all of their top position prospects right now. That is how you build a dynasty. Early 90's all over again.

2021 World Series champs...
Pache cf
Acuna lf
FF
Riley 3b
Waters rf
Albies 2b
Swanson ss
FA/Lang c

[Enscheff]

Here's their updated Braves list: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...num=0&team=atl

On the overall top 100 (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...0000&pagenum=0), we have a lot of big movers. New top 100 rankings, FV in parenthesis:

Pache 15 (60)
Riley 25 (55)
Anderson 35 (55)
Waters 37 (55)
Wright 44 (55)
Contreras 47 (50)
Gohara 63 (50)
Wilson 72 (50)

Muller went from a 45 to a 45+.

Most of the rankings movement was from other prospects graduating, so I wouldn't call that "a lot of big movers".

Pache 15 (60) from 19 (55)
Riley 25 (55) from 33 (55)
Anderson 35 (55) from 38 (55)
Waters 37 (55) from 49 (50)
Wright 44 (55) from 39 (55)
Contreras 47 (50) from 55 (50)
Gohara 63 (50) from 61 (50)
Wilson 72 (50) from 72 (50)

The only real positive movers of note are Pache and Waters gaining a half grade of FV due to advancing levels and being closer to the MLB level.

Doubts about Wright appear to be slowly creeping in, which sucks.

[jpx7]

The only real positive movers of note are Pache and Waters gaining a half grade of FV due to advancing levels and being closer to the MLB level.

That’s pretty big for their “bust potential”, right? Especially for Pache’s?

I can’t remember which recent thread included that FV and bust/star-rate chart, but I feel like FV60 was a decent jump down in bust-rate from FV55.

[Enscheff]

That’s pretty big for their “bust potential”, right? Especially for Pache’s?

I can’t remember which recent thread included that FV and bust/star-rate chart, but I feel like FV60 was a decent jump down in bust-rate from FV55.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/

"Bust" is obviously a subjective term, but as FG defines it the historical difference between a FV 60 position prospect and a FV 55 guy is 36.5% to 31.8%. To me, the column that matters is the > 10 WAR one, since below average players can be snagged at almost any time by almost any team. By that measure, 55s-65s are roughly equivalent, and a decent step up from the generic FV 50 guy.

A couple huge grains of salt...

1. "Bust" being defined as <1 WAR for their MLB career is a pretty low bar. The bar had to be set somewhere, but that's as low as it can be set.

2. FG (Kiley in particular) is the biggest advocates for Pache in the public sphere. The "Pillar floor" comments were silly, and they aren't going to back off now.

[jpx7]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/

"Bust" is obviously a subjective term, but as FG defines it the historical difference between a FV 60 position prospect and a FV 55 guy is 36.5% to 31.8%. To me, the column that matters is the > 10 WAR one, since below average players can be snagged at almost any time by almost any team. By that measure, 55s-65s are roughly equivalent, and a decent step up from the generic FV 50 guy.

A couple huge grains of salt...

1. "Bust" being defined as <1 WAR for their MLB career is a pretty low bar. The bar had to be set somewhere, but that's as low as it can be set.

2. FG (Kiley in particular) is the biggest advocates for Pache in the public sphere. The "Pillar floor" comments were silly, and they aren't going to back off now.

Thanks for re-linking.

To so extent, then, the bump of Waters from 50 to 55 is a bigger deal, then. But you’re right: one win is a pretty generous threshold for “bust”.

[Russ2dollas]

Waters is the guy I want to succeed the most. I think we really need a guy that can really hit from the left side. I'm not saying he will do that, but he is really the only guy that fits that bill IMO.

Pache I've always been more skeptical of the bat because the published reports were so disparate. This year has been fantastic but he still seems like a guy that is not going to be a top half of the order hitter as a young guy. He's a guy who could well continue to develop and I'd really like to have his late 20s years with the bat.

It would take something really special and really controlled for me to consider trading Pache or Waters at this point. I'd much rather trade Riley. I just think we could replace 3B much easier than we could LH mashing OF who can also play great defense.

[Russ2dollas]

It does seem like a quirk-if not a failure- of this rebuild to have such an issue with pitching.

The Braves look to be locked down, long term at almost every position spot. When the Braves do spend big it looks more and more like it might be for a pitcher and that seems absurd given the Coppy strategy.

[Enscheff]

Thanks for re-linking.

To so extent, then, the bump of Waters from 50 to 55 is a bigger deal, then. But you’re right: one win is a pretty generous threshold for “bust”.

Probably, but Pache is tracking pretty much how everyone hoped he would track. BB rate going up. K rate going down. BABIP is nothing crazy considering the qaulity of defense in AA. His CF defense is assumed to still be elite. Things almost couldn't be going any better while still being reasonably expected.

He's at 250 PAs in AA, still using the dead ball (compared to AAA/MLB), and is performing well at the age of 20.5 years old.

Folks are right to be legitimately excited about Pache. He is on track to be an option sometime in 2020. I'm guessing Ender gets a little time next year to prove he's back, and then it will be Pache's turn.

[CyYoung31]

Good Cops is so much better. just because "golden wren" has a color doesn't mean all the brigade nicknames do

But Coppollela’s prospects likely wont be as good as Wren’s. Therefore, their level is copper.

[Super]

But Coppollela’s prospects likely wont be as good as Wren’s. Therefore, their level is copper.

Wren "has" two prospects basically. all prospects combined...Coppy's will do better.
it does say a lot that Wren's only two guys were lottery ticket international signings that happened to work out with little-to-no input from Wren himself. classic.

[nsacpi]

Wren "has" two prospects basically. all prospects combined...Coppy's will do better.
it does say a lot that Wren's only two guys were lottery ticket international signings that happened to work out with little-to-no input from Wren himself. classic.

There are four Golden Wrens on the current roster.