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Thread: 2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Soroka's an "Ace" already?
    I mention him because of his absence from your post. He ranks in the top 10 in the majors in FIP.

    What is an ace? I suppose like pornography people know it when they see it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I don't know what the Braves should do, but it's vitally important they overpay for it.
    And that they do it right away without delay.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    2 year deal

    Gerrit Cole will get a much longer deal. Patrick Corbin this past off-season got a six year deal. Sometimes those deals work out. But generally speaking there is a lot of risk in those kinds of contracts and a mid market team should stay away from them.
    I'll roll those dice with Cole much quicker than I would with any soon-to-be free-agent (next couple years). If anyone projects to be the "next Verlander", it's him.

    This mid-market team will never be in a better position to take that risk than it is now, and if AA doesn't go chasing the Syndergaards of the world the depth is there to work around anything other than a career-ending injury to Cole.

    You did all this work to create a window, here it is - go get the player that can push you over the top, and use all this pitching depth to build an elite pen. If you gave Cole a Scherzer 7/$210 million deal, you'd control him, Acuna, and Ozzie through 2027, and Soroka through 2025, meaning you don't need Anderson to become an "Ace" - he's your #3.
    The FO that needlessly promoted him early knew what they were doing and are paid to do this. We aren't, so we can't know more than them. Correction....they used to be paid to do this..

    I also don't see the reasoning behind signing DK over CK, and I'm going to assume the Braves can only afford one of them. Like Bumgarner, DK would be an improvement in the rotation, but it seems like CK would be a bigger improvement in the BP.

  5. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    2 year deal

    Gerrit Cole will get a much longer deal. Patrick Corbin this past off-season got a six year deal. Sometimes those deals work out. But generally speaking there is a lot of risk in those kinds of contracts and a mid market team should stay away from them.
    Cole is the same age as Verlander when he got his 7 year extension - if there's anyone else out there worth rolling those dice with, who is it?
    The FO that needlessly promoted him early knew what they were doing and are paid to do this. We aren't, so we can't know more than them. Correction....they used to be paid to do this..

    I also don't see the reasoning behind signing DK over CK, and I'm going to assume the Braves can only afford one of them. Like Bumgarner, DK would be an improvement in the rotation, but it seems like CK would be a bigger improvement in the BP.

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    I'm happy we have a window of contention that is likely to be a long one. I'd like to keep it that way.

    If you look at the list of teams that are sellers at this year's deadline, you will find that almost all of them are carrying a big long-term contract to a pitcher that turned into dead weight. It is a significant part of why they are sellers. Not the only reason but a big reason.

    For the Marlins, its Chen.

    For the Orioles, its Cobb.

    For the Tigers, its Zimmermann.

    For the Royals, its Kennedy. At least they are extracting some value by having him relieve.

    For the Mariners, its Hernandez.

    For the Giants, its Cueto.

    I see a pattern. And have no interest in joining the club.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    So that really wasn't the Astros who gave Verlander $33 million per, right?

    The Braves' pitching developers have thus far been unable to harness Folty, Gausman, Newcomb, Fried, Wright, etc. - anyone projected at any point by anyone (whether here or elsewhere) to have "Ace" ceilings - what on earth makes anyone believe that would change if they got their hands on Syndergaard?

    Would Syndergaard be the best Pitcher the franchise had if he were brought in? Of course. Trading for him will require an overpay, and expecting our people to suddenly transform him is asking a little much given their history. We've yet to get someone to take that "final step". Miller did for a season, then imploded. Looks to be the same with Folty.
    Verlander signed a 2 year extension. If Cole would do 2 years and 60 million, then absolutely we should sign him. There's pretty much a zero percent chance he would accept that however.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Cole is the same age as Verlander when he got his 7 year extension - if there's anyone else out there worth rolling those dice with, who is it?
    the answer is it isn't worth rolling the dice like that with any pitcher...it will sometimes work out, but big long-term contracts at market price to pitchers are not a thing a mid-market team should be contemplating
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Cole is the same age as Verlander when he got his 7 year extension - if there's anyone else out there worth rolling those dice with, who is it?
    No one, including Cole. At least for 5 or more years at marker rates. Cole has 2 seasons of elite performance. Verlander was on the heels of an MVP season and several top 5 CY finishes. There is no scenario is which he is in a similar situation to Verlander.
    Last edited by Carp; 07-12-2019 at 08:38 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    No, actually it's not.
    yes, actually it is.
    you're talking about a 2 year deal vs a 6-8 year deal for a similar amount of per year dollars.
    do you not see how one is way riskier than the other?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    No one. At least for 5 or more years at marker rates. Cole has 2 seasons of elite performance. Verlander was on the heels of an MVP season and several top 5 CY finishes. There is no scenario is which he is in a similar situation to Verlander.
    guys have elite seasons all the time. few end up being Verlander and Scherzer.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    yes, actually it is.
    you're talking about a 2 year deal vs a 6-8 year deal for a similar amount of per year dollars.
    do you not see how one is way riskier than the other?
    Of course he doesn't, which is why he is comparing them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    I'll roll those dice with Cole much quicker than I would with any soon-to-be free-agent (next couple years). If anyone projects to be the "next Verlander", it's him.

    This mid-market team will never be in a better position to take that risk than it is now, and if AA doesn't go chasing the Syndergaards of the world the depth is there to work around anything other than a career-ending injury to Cole.

    You did all this work to create a window, here it is - go get the player that can push you over the top, and use all this pitching depth to build an elite pen. If you gave Cole a Scherzer 7/$210 million deal, you'd control him, Acuna, and Ozzie through 2027, and Soroka through 2025, meaning you don't need Anderson to become an "Ace" - he's your #3.
    Sometimes I think people have forgotten about all the injuries that hit the Beachy and Medlen staff. I bet Frank Wren remembers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Cole is the same age as Verlander when he got his 7 year extension - if there's anyone else out there worth rolling those dice with, who is it?
    Your argument is literally, "Verlander and Cole are the same pitcher so a long contract for Cole would work out exactly the same"

    Surely you can even understand how dumb that sounds.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Cole's first season will be age 29. He fits the profile of someone who may well be very effective through his mid thirties. He's quite likely to be a major asset for someone...but not likely to be the Braves any more than Machado or Harper was likely to be a major asset for the Braves. Going to be too many dollars invested in one risky asset.
    I would love to see data supporting which "profile" of someone who is effective through their mid-30s.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    2 year deal

    Gerrit Cole will get a much longer deal. Patrick Corbin this past off-season got a six year deal. Sometimes those deals work out. But generally speaking there is a lot of risk in those kinds of contracts and a mid market team should stay away from them.
    Gerritt Cole is going to be looking for $200M. The Braves will not be signing him.

    Can we please look at everything the Braves have done and start having intelligent discussions grounded in that reality?
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    No, actually it's not.

    If there is any Pitcher out there right now that you gamble on signing to a Scherzer or deGrom-type contract, it's Gerrit Cole. Not Bauer or Syndergaard.
    Actually, it is, even if you can't understand why.

    A 2 year deal for Verlander isn't even in the same universe of the $200M deal Cole will be getting.

    The Braves are not going to sign Gerritt Cole. I swear, every year the same moronic ideas.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 07-12-2019 at 12:46 PM.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Verlander signed a 2 year extension. If Cole would do 2 years and 60 million, then absolutely we should sign him. There's pretty much a zero percent chance he would accept that however.
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    the answer is it isn't worth rolling the dice like that with any pitcher...it will sometimes work out, but big long-term contracts at market price to pitchers are not a thing a mid-market team should be contemplating
    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    yes, actually it is.
    you're talking about a 2 year deal vs a 6-8 year deal for a similar amount of per year dollars.
    do you not see how one is way riskier than the other?
    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Your argument is literally, "Verlander and Cole are the same pitcher so a long contract for Cole would work out exactly the same"

    Surely you can even understand how dumb that sounds.
    When every single intelligent poster in these forums tells you the same thing, maybe you should shut up and listen?
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    You guys... let’s stop trying to build teams like the Mets and Phillies.

    My post had less to do with Gerrit Cole and more to do with having a smart approach to target undervalued players and tweaking aspects of their approach to unlock better performance. This has essentially been the Astros/Rays/Dodgers model of team building the past decade. The Braves, under AA, deploy what is essentially the discount version of the Dodgers model.

    Gerrit Cole is the perfect type of pitcher to add to our roster... just not at $200m. In all honesty, the best outcome for the Braves is for Folty to become that guy and we use our trade resources on short term upgrades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post

    Gerrit Cole is the perfect type of pitcher to add to our roster... just not at $200m.

    That's the long and short of it.

    Anyone would love to have him.

    The cost of acquiring him matters a great deal. The realistic expectation of his cost makes him as unrealistic a target for the Braves as Machado or Harper.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    You guys... let’s stop trying to build teams like the Mets and Phillies.

    My post had less to do with Gerrit Cole and more to do with having a smart approach to target undervalued players and tweaking aspects of their approach to unlock better performance. This has essentially been the Astros/Rays/Dodgers model of team building the past decade. The Braves, under AA, deploy what is essentially the discount version of the Dodgers model.

    Gerrit Cole is the perfect type of pitcher to add to our roster... just not at $200m. In all honesty, the best outcome for the Braves is for Folty to become that guy and we use our trade resources on short term upgrades.
    Among the teams run poorly, you have Bundy, Taillon, and Daniel Norris as former top prospects who could be available (if not now than possibly this winter).

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