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Thread: 2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

  1. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    He’s barely walking anyone lately
    Over his last 6 starts he's still walked 11 in 32 innings, which is > 3.0 BB/9. I wouldn't call that "barely walking anyone", but it's certainly an improvement over his other 12 starts.

  2. #762
    Sabermetric Slut
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Castillo has a groundball rate of 55.9% this year compared to 51.5% for his career and 45.9% in 2018. It seems to me some regression in the groundball rate is likely.
    58% in 2017.

  3. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave View Post
    Morosi’s latest article says the reds are willing to listen on Luis Castillo and lists the Braves first with a proposed package lead by Pache and Anderson. Morosi is also notoriously full of ****.
    Castillo would immediately be the Best SP in the Braves organization.

    He currently relies a little too heavily on a flat 96 FA, and would probably be even better if he leaned on his 96 SI with 70 grade movement more often. The SI is something like a grade 70 pitch that generates something like 70% grounders, and for some reason he only uses it 21% of the time.

    I think Pache is pretty clearly the best prospect in the system, but if there was any trade where it would be OK to use him it would be for a guy like Castillo. I think Pache is pretty much off limits, but if AA can get Castillo for Waters plus Anderson/Wright and some other filler he seems like a guy who's just a pitch usage tweak away from being a true TOR guy. Maybe they would have interest in Riley, but with Suarez and Senzel it's less likely they they would want Riley.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

  4. #764
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    58% in 2017.
    I know. Two years ago and folded into the career rate (he's only been in the majors 3 seasons). I would expect regression toward the career rate. It's not like his 2018 numbers didn't happen.

    Contrast that with Stroman who in the last three seasons has put up GB rates of 62.1 in 2017, 62.1 again in 2018 and 57.9 in 2019. In his case, I would express the GB rate to regress upward from what we've seen so far in 2019.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 07-17-2019 at 10:59 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Castillo has a groundball rate of 55.9% this year compared to 51.5% for his career and 45.9% in 2018. It seems to me some regression in the groundball rate is likely.
    Castillo needs to throw his Grade 70+ SI more, and his flat FA less. The SI generates a lot of GBs, and a pitch usage tweak could make him even more effective. He currently throws the FA about 2x as often as the SI despite being a far inferior pitch, and that needs to change.

    Folks who think Castillo is a great SP are correct. Obviously, the whole being a pitcher thing makes him risky, but he's legit and would be the best pitcher in the organization the moment the trade happened.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Speaking of giants... they're now 46-49 and 3 games out of WC. There are 5 teams ahead of them, but they play 1 today. If they have another good week, they could be a real WC threat. I'm interested in what they do if they get within 2 games or so
    And this is why the Giants didn't sell back in July when some geniuses around here thought the Braves could just go in and pick what they wanted whenever they wanted.

    Teams don't punt seasons in July no matter what a writer for a failed blog insist.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

  7. #767
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    i don't hesitate at Waters/Anderson + filler for Castillo.
    "This is the end of my presidency. I'm ****ed." - Donald J. Trump, innocent and totally exonerated man, upon hearing a special counsel has been appointed to investigate him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    Over his last 6 starts he's still walked 11 in 32 innings, which is > 3.0 BB/9. I wouldn't call that "barely walking anyone", but it's certainly an improvement over his other 12 starts.
    Yes...it's 3.09, which would be perfectly acceptable. You conveniently picked his last 6 starts to avoid the 5.2 IP outing with 1 BB, which would make 12 BBs in his last 37.2 IP...a BB/9 of 2.88.

    You're not exactly an expert on BB rates. Anderson is 21 in AA, and his BB rate is not really something to worry about yet.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yes...it's 3.09, which would be perfectly acceptable. You conveniently picked his last 6 starts to avoid the 5.2 IP outing with 1 BB, which would make 12 BBs in his last 37.2 IP...a BB/9 of 2.88.

    You're not exactly an expert on BB rates. Anderson is 21 in AA, and his BB rate is not really something to worry about yet.
    another manufactured crisis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    And this is why the Giants didn't sell back in July when some geniuses around here thought the Braves could just go in and pick what they wanted whenever they wanted.

    Teams don't punt seasons in July no matter what a writer for a failed blog insist.
    According to Passan, the Giants were trying to jump the trade market a month ago with Smith and Bumgarner a month ago and didn’t like the offers.

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    I wonder if there is a mindset out amongst orgs that a pitchers best pitch isn’t always the one he should throw the most. Take Jackson and his slider. You will see him follow the same playbook of locating a fastball or two then trying to finish guys off with his slider. So a guy like Castillo, he tries to get ahead and then use the sinker/slider combo. I would hope not. I hate watching guys pitch and the sequence is so obvious that I am calling pitches before they get thrown.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    According to Passan, the Giants were trying to jump the trade market a month ago with Smith and Bumgarner a month ago and didn’t like the offers.

    Any team will trade at any time if they are getting a gross overpay.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Castillo would immediately be the Best SP in the Braves organization.

    He currently relies a little too heavily on a flat 96 FA, and would probably be even better if he leaned on his 96 SI with 70 grade movement more often. The SI is something like a grade 70 pitch that generates something like 70% grounders, and for some reason he only uses it 21% of the time.

    I think Pache is pretty clearly the best prospect in the system, but if there was any trade where it would be OK to use him it would be for a guy like Castillo. I think Pache is pretty much off limits, but if AA can get Castillo for Waters plus Anderson/Wright and some other filler he seems like a guy who's just a pitch usage tweak away from being a true TOR guy. Maybe they would have interest in Riley, but with Suarez and Senzel it's less likely they they would want Riley.
    This. Castillo would be our best pitcher and still has plenty of room to grow. Getting out of Cincy would help a ton and having a very good analytical department. Waters and Anderson would be be my offer with a 3rd nothing piece.

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    Also if we trade Waters we have the money sign somebody like Ozuna in the offseason. Castillo, Soroka, DK would be a legit top 3 in the playoffs.

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    If we trade waters do we get the truck back?
    Coppy

  16. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to bravesfanMatt For This Useful Post:

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Any team will trade at any time if they are getting a gross overpay.
    Bit of a catch all response, right? I think the implication from Passan is that they WANTED to move those guys, but held off until offers were better (and not to see if they were a playoff team),

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Bit of a catch all response, right? I think the implication from Passan is that they WANTED to move those guys, but held off until offers were better (and not to see if they were a playoff team),
    Indeed:

    San Francisco's recent success isn't throwing a wrench in the team's trade-Bumgarner-and-all-the-relievers plan. Even with their best run of the year, the Giants are three games below .500 and have the third-worst run differential in the NL. They are selling. One more time, a bit slower. They. Are. Selling. Which is a difficult thing to pitch to a fan base and clubhouse of players who are enjoying this winning stuff.

    [...]

    The Giants tried to jump the deadline on a Bumgarner deal a month ago. When nothing substantive came of that, they resolved to wait -- and interested teams believe that waiting will continue until close to July 31. Everyone knows what Bumgarner is. The actual prices they're willing to pay won't reveal themselves until the clock starts ticking louder.
    They didn’t wait because they think they’ll win anything; they waited because they think they can yet extract more value out of their assets.
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  20. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yes...it's 3.09, which would be perfectly acceptable. You conveniently picked his last 6 starts to avoid the 5.2 IP outing with 1 BB, which would make 12 BBs in his last 37.2 IP...a BB/9 of 2.88.

    You're not exactly an expert on BB rates. Anderson is 21 in AA, and his BB rate is not really something to worry about yet.
    I didn't conveniently leave off anything. I wanted to go with 5 starts, but one was abbreviated at only 1 IP so I added another. It may not worry you yet, but it's why I don't view him as an untouchable asset. His career BB/9 is 4.65, which is Newk-esque. 4.27 for the whole year and 4.19 last year at AA. If someone will cut us a deal that treats him like a future ace, I'll take that deal in a heartbeat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I wonder if there is a mindset out amongst orgs that a pitchers best pitch isn’t always the one he should throw the most. Take Jackson and his slider. You will see him follow the same playbook of locating a fastball or two then trying to finish guys off with his slider. So a guy like Castillo, he tries to get ahead and then use the sinker/slider combo. I would hope not. I hate watching guys pitch and the sequence is so obvious that I am calling pitches before they get thrown.
    It's painful watching Jackson get a head of guys and then throw 2-3 sliders in a row in the dirt hoping for the swinging K.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    another manufactured crisis
    Looks like you're the one who is creating a crisis out of a "I don't view Anderson as an untouchable asset" post.

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