2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

[zbhargrove]

The stats suggest that Teheran is a lot better first time through than any other point and that’s without him expending max effort.

If you don’t like him in the pen you should hate him in the rotation.

When did I ever say I liked him in the rotation? The dude perpetually labors in the first inning. He went through a stretch this year when he didn’t but like clock work it’s back

[Southcack77]

I mean I’m not opposed but there’s about zero chance that will happen unless they are 150% convinced Folty is done and I don’t ever see that being the case. I don’t see any scenario where JT is taken out of the rotation either and I don’t see him being traded. I also don’t think JT would be a good bullpen piece. He doesn’t have the stuff and always struggles in the first 2 innings. I can see one of them since Folty could be working his way back most of the year but no way we would trade for 2 more starters.

I supposed JT could be traded given a deal already in place for another starter but there are a ton of moving pieces there that are just not realistic

I've wondered about that...if there is more value now in having a high GB rate. There are several reasons why that should be the case. As you mentioned the juiced balls and higher HR/FB rate that come with that and the emphasis on launch angle. Another factor would be more efficient infield defense due to the more widespread adoption of shifts.

Fangraphs has an article touching on this. I think I it was 2 seam vs 4 seam. Conclusion was that ground balls are better, but two seamers that get lifted go a lot farther and wipes out the advantage.

Basically velocity is better and ground ball rate doesn’t outweigh stuff.

By proxy, low k rates won’t be overcome by ground balls, though if you don’t have the one it helps.

[Snowman]

It's also worth remembering those results that are included in SIERA: Groundball pitchers give up way more damage on their flyballs, flyball pitchers allow far more damage on their groundballs, guys (like Teheran) who induce pop-ups will outperform FIP/xFIP, and guys who induce IFFB's are basically getting unrecorded strikeouts.

[rico43]

Wonder what Ken Giles would command from the Blue Jays?

[cajunrevenge]

I saw an interview with the BJ GM who said they really like players "who love the game" and they are trying to add harder throwing relievers. I dont know who "loves the game" but we have plenty of hard throwing reliever prospects.



I think a deal with the Jay's is most likely due to AA's connection with that team. I think Stroman and/or Giles is the deal that gets done with Smith and/or Bumgarner a close second. Longshot guess mega trade for Wheeler/Diaz from the Mets.

[Chico]

Mike Fast is pat of the front office who traded away Giles due to character/clubhouse issues and is an advisor to AA. I don't think we go after Giles with as much focus AA has put on clubhouse guys and the cohesiveness the current team has.

[Southcack77]

xwOBA

Syndegard .272
Greinke .284
Stroman .290
Minor .291
Boyd .292
Wood .293 (2018) 9.65m
Wheeler .303
Means .307
Bundy .313
Roark .315 10m
Bauer .315
Ray .318
Kluber .329
Bumgarner .332
Leake .348
Cashner .350
Sanchez .361


That's a large segment of the starting pitching market I would think.


Alex Wood may not pitch before the deadline so that would make it difficult to trade for him, but might make his price very, very low. Seems like a very minor trade with somebody like Jared Hughes might be interesting, but perhaps too much of limited money pool being put at risk there.

[Hudson2]

There are a ton of good options there and we would need to trade better prospects for them to eat salary or send a player making a lot of money back.

[Enscheff]

Another article went up about how great a trade target Smith is:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best...-trade-market/

Unfortunately, since FG is going down the crapper with their hiring of sub-par fluff writers to replace the talent they lost to MLB teams, the author didn't take the time to go all the way with the article and analyze the returns for those BP rentals.

So I guess that's up to us. Here are the FVs of the players at the time of the trade (as best I could determine):

Zack Britton 2018 - Dillon Tate 40+, Josh Rogers 40, Cody Carroll 40
Mark Melancon 2016 - Felipe Vazquez (probably a 45 as a potential impact BP arm with some MLB IP), Taylor Hearn 40
Addison Reed 2017 - Gerson Bautista 40, Jamie Callahan 40, and Stephen Nogosek NA
Jeurys Familia 2018 - Will Toffey 40, Bobby Wahl 40, $1M international pool money
Joakim Soria 2018 - Kodi Medeiros 40, Wilber Perez NA (young arm from the DSL)
Anthony Swarzak 2017 - Ryan Cordell 45
Aroldis Chapman 2016 - Gleyber Torres 60, Adam Warren NA (MLB arm), Billy McKinney 40, Rashad Crawford NA

The Chapman insanity aside, we see these top rental BP arms seems to cost 2-3 40s, with maybe a 45 in there to push the package over the top.

The price for Smith is likely going to be the same. The Braves have a ton of 40/45s for the Giants to take the 2-3 they want:

Kyle Muller 45+
Shea Langeliers 45
Joey Wentz 45
Alex Jackson 40+
Kolby Allard 40+
Greyson Jenista 40+
Braden Shewmake 40
Freddy Tarnok 40
Huascar Ynoa 40
Michael Harris 40
Tristan Beck 40
Tucker Davidson 40
Victor Vodnik 40
Vaughn Grissom 40
Daysbel Hernandez 40
Patrick Weigel 40
Jasseel De La Cruz 40
CJ Alexander 40
Josh Graham 40

Lango probably isn't going anywhere, but I would be fine with any 3 of those 40s (though Vodnik would hurt).

If Muller or Wentz go that would be pretty much the whole package.

[CJ9]

It's amazing that people take Jon Morosi seriously at all. This is one of the worst proposed trades I've ever seen -- https://twitter.com/Lhubb_GA/status/1146073156660224001.

He suggests Pache, Anderson and Allard for Bumgarner and Will Smith. I have no idea how people in roles like his can be this poorly informed about valuing rentals.

[nsacpi]

Another article went up about how great a trade target Smith is:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best...-trade-market/

Unfortunately, since FG is going down the crapper with their hiring of sub-par fluff writers to replace the talent they lost to MLB teams, the author didn't take the time to go all the way with the article and analyze the returns for those BP rentals.

So I guess that's up to us. Here are the FVs of the players at the time of the trade (as best I could determine):

Zack Britton 2018 - Dillon Tate 40+, Josh Rogers 40, Cody Carroll 40
Mark Melancon 2016 - Felipe Vazquez (probably a 45 as a potential impact BP arm with some MLB IP), Taylor Hearn 40
Addison Reed 2017 - Gerson Bautista 40, Jamie Callahan 40, and Stephen Nogosek NA
Jeurys Familia 2018 - Will Toffey 40, Bobby Wahl 40, $1M international pool money
Joakim Soria 2018 - Kodi Medeiros 40, Wilber Perez NA (young arm from the DSL)
Anthony Swarzak 2017 - Ryan Cordell 45
Aroldis Chapman 2016 - Gleyber Torres 60, Adam Warren NA (MLB arm), Billy McKinney 40, Rashad Crawford NA

The Chapman insanity aside, we see these top rental BP arms seems to cost 2-3 40s, with maybe a 45 in there to push the package over the top.

The price for Smith is likely going to be the same. The Braves have a ton of 40/45s for the Giants to take the 2-3 they want:

Kyle Muller 45+
Shea Langeliers 45
Joey Wentz 45
Alex Jackson 40+
Kolby Allard 40+
Greyson Jenista 40+
Braden Shewmake 40
Freddy Tarnok 40
Huascar Ynoa 40
Michael Harris 40
Tristan Beck 40
Tucker Davidson 40
Victor Vodnik 40
Vaughn Grissom 40
Daysbel Hernandez 40
Patrick Weigel 40
Jasseel De La Cruz 40
CJ Alexander 40
Josh Graham 40

Lango probably isn't going anywhere, but I would be fine with any 3 of those 40s (though Vodnik would hurt).

If Muller or Wentz go that would be pretty much the whole package.

I'm glad you flagged Vodnik. Not all those 40s are the same. I would work pretty hard to avoid losing Vodnik and Ynoa.

[Enscheff]

I almost mentioned Ynoa too, but there's a reason we want to hold onto those guys.

The Giants are unlikely to want a grab bag of guys we don't care to lose, and we have to be realistic about giving up future value to boost WS chances this year.

[Southcack77]

Somewhat odd list of potentially available bats.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...his-month.html


Puig is yet another Reds rental that fits the Braves needs pretty well. Starter or RH cOF platoon makes perfect sense. Not a Braves-y personality though.

Soler/Castellanos figure to be cOF/DH that might platoon and be relatively cheap?


No objection to the concept of Marte, Haniger, Conforto, Mancini, but not sure they're actually available and pretty confident they'd all be pricy additions.

Not sure why Braves didn't pursue Dietrich and wow he's still got control after this season?

[Super]

Somewhat odd list of potentially available bats.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...his-month.html


Puig is yet another Reds rental that fits the Braves needs pretty well. Starter or RH cOF platoon makes perfect sense. Not a Braves-y personality though.

Soler/Castellanos figure to be cOF/DH that might platoon and be relatively cheap?


No objection to the concept of Marte, Haniger, Conforto, Mancini, but not sure they're actually available and pretty confident they'd all be pricy additions.

Not sure why Braves didn't pursue Dietrich and wow he's still got control after this season?

i was a fan of pursuing Dietrich but who would’ve thought he’d do this.
doesn’t Puig have reverse splits?
i’d take Soler.
i’d love an actual FT RFer but it won’t hapoen and probably isn’t necessary.

[Russ2dollas]

Y’all see the trade on mlb tv from John moresi? Pache and Anderson and more for madbum and Wilson. They pay that guy actual money to create that crap.

[clvclv]

Y’all see the trade on mlb tv from John moresi? Pache and Anderson and more for madbum and Wilson. They pay that guy actual money to create that crap.

It also included Allard. Originated from XM host (and big-time Mutt fan) Casey Stern who now lives in Atlanta - exactly the type of trade you'd expect the Mutts to make. Stern is about as "old-school" as it gets - probably moreso than anyone here - he's big buddies with Dusty Baker.

[clvclv]

While that MadBum/Smith proposed deal was ridiculous, it does present a good question - would AA try to land both a SP and pen help in the same deal?

Stroman AND Giles maybe? Minor AND Leclerc? Boyd AND Greene?

The "homer" in me would be interested to see what a Greinke/Holland package would need to look like.

[UNCBlue012]

While that MadBum/Smith proposed deal was ridiculous, it does present a good question - would AA try to land both a SP and pen help in the same deal?

Stroman AND Giles maybe? Minor AND Leclerc? Boyd AND Greene?

The "homer" in me would be interested to see what a Greinke/Holland package would need to look like.

I think the price would be too rich together for the Braves liking. But count me in on Stroman and Giles or Minor and Leclerc, though I doubt the Rangers are selling.

[DirkPiggler]

I got to thinking about this yesterday afternoon while listening to the mostly stupid assed trade ideas on MLB Radio. The bulk of them revolved around some sort of overpay for Zack Wheeler.

The Braves need a potential ace starter. The Mets need a CF.

Would anyone on here trade Pache for Syndegaard straight up? It looks like their surplus values would line up fairly closely, minus a little trade deadline premium. Syndegaard would be here through 2021.

Go easy on me, as this is my first time really trying to value a trade, and I'm mostly using the WAG method for estimating what Thor would get in arbitration.

[zbhargrove]

While that MadBum/Smith proposed deal was ridiculous, it does present a good question - would AA try to land both a SP and pen help in the same deal?

Stroman AND Giles maybe? Minor AND Leclerc? Boyd AND Greene?

The "homer" in me would be interested to see what a Greinke/Holland package would need to look like.

I think that's a question we've been talking about for 2 months.