jpx7 (06-18-2019)
I doubt Toronto would be avoiding dealing with AA but it shouldn’t help us either. Closer to the deadline Stroman could make sense but I’d like to plug in Keuchel and give our internal options a bit more time. I don’t think we are desperate for a starter.
jpx7 (06-18-2019)
If we aren't going to add an ace we should stay out of the SP market. We have enough mid to back of the rotation starters on this team. But the Braves should be in the realm of making significant move right now, whether it be for Max Scherzer or elite bullpen help. We have the pieces in place to win it all. We have enough young assets and long term stability to push some significant chips onto the table.
thank you weso1!
I think we could use another starter even if/when Foltynewicz rebounds. And I agree: Stroman fits the profile (especially relative to Bumgarner).
The Zombie Expos are going to want way too much in exchange for Scherzer, especially to trade him within the division; he’s the elite of the elite, but his surplus value isn’t as high as one might think, given how much he’s still owed. I just don’t see the Zombie Expos accepting anything near fair value—with their contention aspirations not yet extinguished, with Scherzer’s HoF résumé and continued excellence, with Atlanta being in the same division—and as value-junkies that’s a major hurdle. Plus, I’m wary of restocking a division opponents coffers.
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Jim Bowden said it would take Ian Anderson straight up to get Kirby Yates. What’s he smoking?
Pass.
With every start here of late it’s looking like Anderson is legit.
Ivermectin Man
didn't say he said that. said the system was completely devoid of pitching. which it was. and that's a pretty big issue for a mid-market team.
how do you suppose a mid-market team acquire enough solid pitching to get thru multiple years of contention?
this idea that you can just sign, draft, or trade for the right guys along the way instead of trying to develop them is laughable. either way can blow up in your face equally. stockpiling young pitchers is far from an unreasonable or bad move.
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Fangraphs write up on Scherzer's trade value: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzers-trade-value/
Suggests Pache and Bryse Wilson would be fair value.
jpx7 (06-19-2019)
jpx7 (06-19-2019)
Data says you're wrong. Data says the volatility of pitchers make them less valuable overall. Data says to value prospects roughly as: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/
Pitching prospects are still valuable, as long as their risk is factored in correctly when calculating their overall value.
Position players assigned a 70 FV go on to be more productive than pitchers assigned a 70 FV. But this covers a very small number of players.
Looking at the 65s, it looks like the pitchers go on to be more productive on average by a small amount.
Looking at the 60s, it also looks like pitchers do better by a small amount.
Then for the 55s and 50s, the hitters do better by a significant amount. A 55 pitcher is closer to a 50 hitter than a 55 hitter.
I suspect the results for the 60s and 65s are flukes due to small samples. But maybe this needs to be looked at more closely.
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