Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
These types of projections are why the Nats aren't dead, and why the "kill shot" narrative was silly:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips...tional-league/

Most (all?) public projection models have the Nats as a 50/50 coin flip to be playing in the WC game. I'm sure the Nats have internal projections that suggest similar.

It is absurd to suggest the Nats became sellers because they lost 2 of 3 to the Braves last weekend.
Yeah the Nats are still right in there from a wild card perspective. They have the team to make the run. This weekend's series was nice, but it didn't move the needle much as far as them buying or selling at the deadline.

There are sets of circumstances where the Nats should consider selling, though. If the Braves are able to build on their current lead in the division, the Cardinals/Rockies/Phillies/Brewers expand their wild card lead, and the Nats are still below .500 around July 20th or so, I think they will have some difficult decisions to make. I'd say the number where I'd consider selling would be playoff odds between 10-15%. At that point, I think it would be in their best interest to move some pieces for future value.

But if I had to bet on what is going to happen, I think the Nats are going to make a run between now and then and they'll be comfortably in contention at the deadline.