Fried's Elite Control

[Enscheff]

After last night's gem, Fried's BB% is currently sitting at 4.6%, ranking him #6 in MLB out of 87 qualified pitchers. Right now in 2019, he is demonstrating elite control, and elite control is what allows pitchers to perform much better than their arsenal suggests they should. With this type of elite control, it doesn't matter that Fried's FA is a bit flat.

This dramatic improvement in control isn't typical for pitchers in their mid-20s, and pretty much nobody saw this coming. Is Fried one of the exceptions folks will point to in the future when talking about a guy with good stuff who is struggling with control? We know BB rate stabilizes around this point in the season, but flukes do happen over large sample size. Is this a fluke, or is this real?

Here is an article where the author found correlations between all the plate discipline metrics and BB/K rates:

https://www.pitcherlist.com/a-beginn...-for-pitchers/

For those who don't want to read the whole thing, here's the money quote:

3.For walk rates, none of the metrics show a high enough correlation to make such rules. Walks are unpredictable in nature, thanks to human umpires. O-Swing% and F-Strike% are certainly good, but not really guaranteed to improve walk rates. Throwing balls in the strike zone does not even appear to be a factor. For walks the only thing we can predict is their unpredictability.

Not exactly the silver bullet we were hoping to find, but we know O-Swing (swings on pitches outside the zone) and F-Strike (first pitch strikes) hold at least some predictive power, with O-Swing being the most predictive. The best we can do is look there...

In 2018 there were 5 qualified pitchers who posted a BB% under 5%. Here are their BB%, O-Swing%, F-Strike% and Zone% (I know Zone% doesn't correlate to BB%, but it is so intuitive that I'm including it anyways).

Mikolas: 3.6%, 36.6%, 70.8%, 48.0%
Kluber: 4.0%, 35.0%, 63.2%, 42.5%
Leake: 4.3%, 34.0%, 65.1%, 45.0%
Verlander: 4.4%, 34.6%, 68.9%, 47.7%
Gonzales: 4.7%, 35.9%, 66.3%, 43.0%

Fried 2019: 4.6%, 28.5%, 65.8%, 47.2%
Fried 2018: 14.1%, 27.7%, 57.8%, 41.2%

We see Fried is throwing more strikes overall and more first pitch strikes in 2019 than he was in 2018, and those 2019 values are in line with what other guys have done in full seasons they posted an elite BB%. Definitely a good thing.

We also see Fried's 28.5% O-Swing being far below the typical ~35% value we see from guys who post 5% BB rate over a full season. This rate is the most predictive of BB%, and it suggests Fried is experiencing some luck in the BB department so far.

His current plate discipline numbers most closely resemble the 2018 values posted by Jose Quintana (9.2% BB%, 3.51 BB/9), Jon Gray (7.0%, 2.72), and Charlie Morton (9.2%, 3.45).

This suggests to me that while Fried's control going forward won't be elite, it should fall into the ~3 BB/9 range, which is still Grade 50/55, just not the Grade 80 he's shown so far in 2019.

[AerchAngel]

You never let me down.

Thanks, brah on the stats.

[Enscheff]

His current plate discipline numbers most closely resemble the 2018 values posted by Jose Quintana (9.2% BB%, 3.51 BB/9), Jon Gray (7.0%, 2.72), and Charlie Morton (9.2%, 3.45).

This suggests to me that while Fried's control going forward won't be elite, it should fall into the ~3 BB/9 range, which is still Grade 50/55, just not the Grade 80 he's shown so far in 2019.

Less than a month later, Fried's BB% has crept up to 6.3%, and his BB/9 up to 2.32. Not so coincidentally, his xwOBA currently sits at .301, which is about exactly a #3 SP.

The new SL and improved control transformed Fried from a Mike Montgomery into a LH Kevin Gausman. The SL appears to have staying power, and hopefully the improved control has the same staying power.

[nsacpi]

We also see Fried's 28.5% O-Swing being far below the typical ~35% value we see from guys who post 5% BB rate over a full season. This rate is the most predictive of BB%, and it suggests Fried is experiencing some luck in the BB department so far.

Isn't it the other way around. A high O-Swing rate helps hold down walks even if you are not throwing strikes.

[bravesfanMatt]

Less than a month later, Fried's BB% has crept up to 6.3%, and his BB/9 up to 2.32. Not so coincidentally, his xwOBA currently sits at .301, which is about exactly a #3 SP.

The new SL and improved control transformed Fried from a Mike Montgomery into a LH Kevin Gausman. The SL appears to have staying power, and hopefully the improved control has the same staying power.

I think the slider could be a huge weapon for him but he has to use it or command it better. He threw it 6 times in his first 5 innings (64 pitches)....all but once it was a strike or out. The other time was a ball low. In the 6th it says he used it more but I can’t tell if those where harder curves that stayed up or slower sliders that were high. Like Suzuki double said slider but looked like a curve. Either way when throwing that pitch well it becomes a weapon with his FB and I would like him to use it more.

[jpx7]

Isn't it the other way around. A high O-Swing rate helps hold down walks even if you are not throwing strikes.

I think that’s what he’s saying, essentially: for a player exhibiting the suppressed bb-rate Fried was exhibiting, you’d expect a higher o-swing rate. The fact that his was below typical suggested his lower bb-rate was more chance than skill, since batters weren’t swinging at his non-strikes at the rate you’d expect for maintaining such a low bb-rate.

[nsacpi]

I think that’s what he’s saying, essentially: for a player exhibiting the suppressed bb-rate Fried was exhibiting, you’d expect a higher o-swing rate. The fact that his was below typical suggested his lower bb-rate was more chance than skill, since batters weren’t swinging at his non-strikes at the rate you’d expect for maintaining such a low bb-rate.

ah ok...got it

[Southcack77]

I think that’s what he’s saying, essentially: for a player exhibiting the suppressed bb-rate Fried was exhibiting, you’d expect a higher o-swing rate. The fact that his was below typical suggested his lower bb-rate was more chance than skill, since batters weren’t swinging at his non-strikes at the rate you’d expect for maintaining such a low bb-rate.

Thanks. That does make some sense to me as well.

[Enscheff]

This suggests to me that while Fried's control going forward won't be elite, it should fall into the ~3 BB/9 range, which is still Grade 50/55, just not the Grade 80 he's shown so far in 2019.

Update:

BB/9 = 2.74 and climbing.

ERA (3.96), FIP (3.92), xFIP (3.51) all converging.

Exactly as expected.

[thewupk]

Update:

BB/9 = 2.74 and climbing.

ERA (3.96), FIP (3.92), xFIP (3.51) all converging.

Exactly as expected.

[Coredor]

Update:

BB/9 = 2.74 and climbing.

ERA (3.96), FIP (3.92), xFIP (3.51) all converging.

Exactly as expected.

He’s still having a nice year for us and looks like he is a good young pitcher. I never thought he’d be Kershaw as nice as that would be.

[thewupk]

He’s still having a nice year for us and looks like he is a good young pitcher. I never thought he’d be Kershaw as nice as that would be.

At least Fried isn't giving up homeruns to pitchers right now

[Tapate50]

The slider looked really good last night to the eye. Threw it a good bit.

[Pugfan]

A 3.96 era this homer happy season is really good. League Era is around 4.30