Cool Trade Simulation Website

[BeanieAntics]

I know people always love to post trade ideas on here. Some good, some that are so bad that they become memes that last years and years.

I'm reluctant to post this since I enjoy some of the ridiculous proposals, but here is a website that uses the FV model to simulate whether or not a trade would make sense. It seems to have factored in everything except for a contender's premium, but this should help some people who may want to put together more coherent trade ideas. Plus its pretty fun to play around with:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[thewupk]

that's pretty slick

[bravesfanMatt]

This looks fun. Will have to wait for when I pull the laptop out. My phone sucks. I probably need to clog it Publicly

[The Chosen One]

If only murph3 where here to see this.

[thewupk]

If only murph3 where here to see this.

here's a look at his reaction

[CyYoung31]

I tried trading Albies for Dee Gordon and it said that one team is not getting back as much value as it should be. It didn’t tell me which team though.

[Russ2dollas]

I got bumgarder and smith for Inciarte....I think trades are more than just a math problem.

[Russ2dollas]

I got Grienke, Peralta and 30 million for Tehran, Duvall, Allard, Jenista and Tehran.

[msstate7]

I got Grienke, Peralta and 30 million for Tehran, Duvall, Allard, Jenista and Tehran.

I'm not coming off both Julios

[UNCBlue012]

I'm not coming off both Julios

can’t trade our two aces

[BeanieAntics]

I got bumgarder and smith for Inciarte....I think trades are more than just a math problem.

Obviously you have to take into account the needs of the other team, but from a value perspective that probably isn't too far off. Maybe the site isn't accounting for (or hasn't updated) Ender's injury and pre-injury slump properly, but before the year started Ender was a 3 win outfielder controlled cheaply for 4 years. The only ridiculous thing about that trade is the notion that the Giants would only want back a major league piece.

Two 20 million dollar trade assets might not be created equal. There are a few externalities that have to be considered separately from the SV model. But there is a reason that you can look back on trades from the past 10+ years and find a very high correlation between the average value of those trades and the SV model.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm not coming off both Julios

It's like having two right arms

[Horsehide Harry]

So,

I got Samardzija, Smith and $10M for Allard, Duvall and Teheran and the program said that the Braves only "maybe" do it.

I'm thinking the formula is missing something.

[sturg33]

The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense

[nsacpi]

The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense

yeah but contenders are willing to pay a premium in those situations in part because they expect him to be pitching in the post-season

[mqt]

It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.

[Horsehide Harry]

I got Giles, Stroman, Hudson and Mayza from Toronto for Inciarte and Camargo

[jpx7]

It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.

Seems fair, actually—though selling short of Gohara’s potential for a starter in his 30s with a solid contract that has two more years on it.

[BeanieAntics]

It’s a fun little site, but has some valuation issues for sure. I got Lance Lynn for Gohara straight up.

I think the main issue with the valuations is they don't seem to be updated regularly enough. They still have Acuna as controllable for 5.5 years even though he signed the 10 year deal. If they updated the contract situations and industry consensus prospect rankings/valuations then it would be fine.

[bravesfanMatt]

Who can get us Trout without giving up Acuna or Ozzie. Go