Cool Trade Simulation Website

[BeanieAntics]

I know people always love to post trade ideas on here. Some good, some that are so bad that they become memes that last years and years.

I'm reluctant to post this since I enjoy some of the ridiculous proposals, but here is a website that uses the FV model to simulate whether or not a trade would make sense. It seems to have factored in everything except for a contender's premium, but this should help some people who may want to put together more coherent trade ideas. Plus its pretty fun to play around with:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[thewupk]

that's pretty slick

[bravesfanMatt]

This looks fun. Will have to wait for when I pull the laptop out. My phone sucks. I probably need to clog it Publicly

[The Chosen One]

If only murph3 where here to see this.

[thewupk]

If only murph3 where here to see this.

here's a look at his reaction

[CyYoung31]

I tried trading Albies for Dee Gordon and it said that one team is not getting back as much value as it should be. It didn’t tell me which team though.

[Russ2dollas]

I got bumgarder and smith for Inciarte....I think trades are more than just a math problem.

[Russ2dollas]

I got Grienke, Peralta and 30 million for Tehran, Duvall, Allard, Jenista and Tehran.

[BeanieAntics]

I got bumgarder and smith for Inciarte....I think trades are more than just a math problem.

Obviously you have to take into account the needs of the other team, but from a value perspective that probably isn't too far off. Maybe the site isn't accounting for (or hasn't updated) Ender's injury and pre-injury slump properly, but before the year started Ender was a 3 win outfielder controlled cheaply for 4 years. The only ridiculous thing about that trade is the notion that the Giants would only want back a major league piece.

Two 20 million dollar trade assets might not be created equal. There are a few externalities that have to be considered separately from the SV model. But there is a reason that you can look back on trades from the past 10+ years and find a very high correlation between the average value of those trades and the SV model.

[msstate7]

I got Grienke, Peralta and 30 million for Tehran, Duvall, Allard, Jenista and Tehran.

I'm not coming off both Julios

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm not coming off both Julios

It's like having two right arms

[Horsehide Harry]

So,

I got Samardzija, Smith and $10M for Allard, Duvall and Teheran and the program said that the Braves only "maybe" do it.

I'm thinking the formula is missing something.

[sturg33]

The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense

[nsacpi]

The other thing about FV trades is that while yes, a Bumgarner may be worth 1 or 2 wins for last 2 months
.. but those wins are worth 0 to SF before he leaves. So I don't believe it has to be a equal value trade, it just has to be the best offer

If that makes sense

yeah but contenders are willing to pay a premium in those situations in part because they expect him to be pitching in the post-season

[UNCBlue012]

I'm not coming off both Julios

can’t trade our two aces

[trob15]

Who can get us Trout without giving up Acuna or Ozzie. Go

I got him for Gohara, Austin Riley , and Allard. Seriously ha.

[BeanieAntics]

I got him for Gohara, Austin Riley , and Allard. Seriously ha.

Trout is ridiculously hard to valuate because he's so good, but there are also a lot of negatives that detract from his theoretical trade value. He just signed a massive contract that will pay him 40+ million per year and that contract carries him well past his decline years.

I think they are a little conservative on their on field valuation of Trout though. I think they have him at about 57 WAR over the course of his deal, where I think 70 is definitely within the realm of possibility depending how quickly his decline arrives and how steep it is. But if you trade for Trout, you do it understanding that you're probably going to be paying 40 million dollars for a mediocre or worse player at the back end of it.

[Enscheff]

Folks who complain about $40M for Trout’s decline are too stupid to remember he was making $40M at his 8-10 win peak.

[BeanieAntics]

Folks who complain about $40M for Trout’s decline are too stupid to remember he was making $40M at his 8-10 win peak.

What do you mean? I'm just saying that his contract and his decline have to be factored in any hypothetical trade valuation

[Enscheff]

What do you mean? I'm just saying that his contract and his decline have to be factored in any hypothetical trade valuation

Right. I was referring to people who talk about how bad the contract is in the back half as they conveniently forgot how great a value it was at the front end.