AJC Interview with AA

[Enscheff]

Isn't Jansen investing in pen for dodgers?

Yup, and that deal took a while to work out with the Dodgers deciding they were keeping their version of Rivera. They could afford to invest in a player for non-baseball related reasons. I’m sure they regret that deal already.

I’m glad AA has learned not to dole out huge contracts to BP arms. I’ve been advocating against it for years.

[nsacpi]

It's kind of one of those --- well tell me who you think has a smart front office and let's look at their bullpen.

Teams with big payrolls who are in championships windows pretty much all have invested heavily in one way or the other in their bullpens.

The Dodgers have Jansen for 2/38 after this season, for example.

The oddest thing in this thread was the assertion that Theo Epstein maybe isn't so very smart any more. I guess winning titles with the Red Sox and Cubs just isn't as impressive as it was two years ago? They're still winning 95 games guys. Not everyone can be as good as John S. Most everyone else has to rebuild some time.

I think what constitutes smart varies a bit depending upon whether you are a big, middle or small market team. In particular, a big market team can take some risks with respect to high priced pitching talent that just doesn't make sense for other teams.

[The Chosen One]

AA sounds like the best thing to happen to this franchise's front office since JS stepped down from GM.

[BeanieAntics]

The Yankees are an exception. But their finances allow them to do this.

Yeah I was about to say this. I think smart teams can sometimes make heavy investments into the bullpen provided that they have near limitless resources like the Yankees. But it would be asinine for a team outside the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox to make massive investments into the bullpen.

One area that I think could be a market inefficiency at the moment is relief prospects. I do wonder if it would make sense to heavily draft good stuff RP-only arms (like the Minters or Sandlins of the world) in rounds 2-10 and I also wonder if it makes sense to try to get back some RP prospects in any trades that you might make. It seems like some of those guys are criminally underrated from a value standpoint.

So the farm is an area where I think heavier investment into the bullpen might be a good idea. Getting a few of those high upside BP only arms plus converting failed starters should give teams a chance to build a really good bullpen at a really low cost.

[zbhargrove]

AA sounds like the best thing to happen to this franchise's front office since JS stepped down from GM.

Nahhhh... Twitter assures me he doesn't know what he's doing.

[nsacpi]

Yeah I was about to say this. I think smart teams can sometimes make heavy investments into the bullpen provided that they have near limitless resources like the Yankees. But it would be asinine for a team outside the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox to make massive investments into the bullpen.

One area that I think could be a market inefficiency at the moment is relief prospects. I do wonder if it would make sense to heavily draft good stuff RP-only arms (like the Minters or Sandlins of the world) in rounds 2-10 and I also wonder if it makes sense to try to get back some RP prospects in any trades that you might make. It seems like some of those guys are criminally underrated from a value standpoint.

So the farm is an area where I think heavier investment into the bullpen might be a good idea. Getting a few of those high upside BP only arms plus converting failed starters should give teams a chance to build a really good bullpen at a really low cost.

I believe there is some analysis showing that college relievers are not a good group to draft. Better to focus on starting pitching with the understanding that quite a few will end up as relievers.

[BeanieAntics]

Isn't Jansen investing in pen for dodgers?

Yeah but they haven't done it to the extent of the Yankees. The Yankees have made some pretty crazy prospect/dollar investments into their bullpen. They've traded away some pretty good prospects and they have like 40 million dollars per year committed to just three bullpen arms through 2021. They can afford to do that since they're the Yankees, but that doesn't make it smart and a strategy like that would be disastrous for the Braves.

[nsacpi]

Yeah but they haven't done it to the extent of the Yankees. The Yankees have made some pretty crazy prospect/dollar investments into their bullpen. They've traded away some pretty good prospects and they have like 40 million dollars per year committed to just three bullpen arms through 2021. They can afford to do that since they're the Yankees, but that doesn't make it smart and a strategy like that would be disastrous for the Braves.

In addition to finances, AA has to consider the amount of pitching depth we have in the upper minors. In that kind of situation, the focus should definitely be more on acquiring pitchers on short-term deals. You avoid the risk of longer term deals as well as having to pay more in trades.

[BeanieAntics]

I believe there is some analysis showing that college relievers are not a good group to draft. Better to focus on starting pitching with the understanding that quite a few will end up as relievers.

That's interesting. I wonder if it would make more sense to just target (in mid-rounds) pitchers with good "stuff" that may or may not be starters in college/high school (but with a reliever profile) with the understanding that you'll be developing them as a reliever. I suppose the only way that would make any sense is if developing a pitcher as a starter might detract from his overall development if he winds up as a reliever and I don't have any data to support that one way or the other.

But I do agree with Scheff that making big external investments in relievers is a bad idea. But I also think that having a good bullpen is part of the current playoff meta and it does help your chances, as far as your chances can be helped, in the playoffs. So the obvious answer is to try to develop that bullpen internally or maybe externally through smaller investments in reclamation projects.

[nsacpi]

That's interesting. I wonder if it would make more sense to just target (in mid-rounds) pitchers with good "stuff" that may or may not be starters in college/high school (but with a reliever profile) with the understanding that you'll be developing them as a reliever. I suppose the only way that would make any sense is if developing a pitcher as a starter might detract from his overall development if he winds up as a reliever and I don't have any data to support that one way or the other.

But I do agree with Scheff that making big external investments in relievers is a bad idea. But I also think that having a good bullpen is part of the current playoff meta and it does help your chances, as far as your chances can be helped, in the playoffs. So the obvious answer is to try to develop that bullpen internally or maybe externally through smaller investments in reclamation projects.

Yes. College starters with reliever profiles is a good group to target in those middle rounds (4-10). We took 3 of those in this year's draft (Gordon, Vines, DeVito) in addition to a college relieve (Kalich).

[Russ2dollas]

I loved the answers. I think we will get two of Watson, Smith and MadBum from the giants for 4 guys outside out top 10. I got all 3 on the trade site for Muller, Beck, Jenista and Ynoa. With the money in that deal we might get away with swapping Muller for Wentz.

Invest in the position guys. Draft quality arm depth. Look for controllable starters. Collect high upside arms. Each year option and move arms around and use depth to get the hot relievers off of the bad teams.

There is not a lot of time in the month to evaluate how to get 4 quality starters. Right now it would be Soroka, the beard and two bullpen games for me. I think we have a lot of arms who would be good 1x through the order and we should go with that.

[Russ2dollas]

we have already used options on Folty, Wright, Wilson, and Ynoa. I think we should use those options going forward and go with a 6 man rotation after the break.

We aren't getting amazing results from most of our starters anyway. Cycle a couple of guys through that 6th spot for a couple of months. I'd even handcuff them if I could.

[Slippyjms]

Thought it was interesting that AA essentially said Teheran was not a playoff pitcher. Not saying I disagree just surprised he’d even hint at it.

[The Chosen One]

I loved the answers. I think we will get two of Watson, Smith and MadBum from the giants for 4 guys outside out top 10. I got all 3 on the trade site for Muller, Beck, Jenista and Ynoa. With the money in that deal we might get away with swapping Muller for Wentz.

Invest in the position guys. Draft quality arm depth. Look for controllable starters. Collect high upside arms. Each year option and move arms around and use depth to get the hot relievers off of the bad teams.

There is not a lot of time in the month to evaluate how to get 4 quality starters. Right now it would be Soroka, the beard and two bullpen games for me. I think we have a lot of arms who would be good 1x through the order and we should go with that.

Unfortunately, the Giants actually have someone smart leading their front office. Zaidi like AA, spent a few years in the Dodgers system (as well as in the A's). I don't think he's going to simply take some of our non impact guys for his best trade assets.

[clvclv]

Unfortunately, the Giants actually have someone smart leading their front office. Zaidi like AA, spent a few years in the Dodgers system (as well as in the A's). I don't think he's going to simply take some of our non impact guys for his best trade assets.

This is where the value model is going to be challenged unfortunately. If you want your ideal fit, you're likely going to have to overpay - even if it's just a little - with so many current buyers. Just look at the other contenders...

Dodgers (60 wins) - looking for setup guy, preferably LH.
Yankees (57 wins) - likely targeting a SP.
Astros (55 wins) - don't really need anything, possibly a controllable SP.
Twins (55 wins) - a toss up between the rotation and back end help, no one with much closing experience.
Braves (53 wins) - obviously the back end, preferably LH.
Rays (50 wins) - rotation and pen, might be someone to make a play for Vazquez or Hand if they're made available.
Athletics (49 wins) - possibly a rental SP.
Indians (48 wins) - OF.
Red Sox - back end, preferably LH.
Rangers (47 wins) - SP.
Brewers (47 wins) - SP.
Cubs (46 wins) - back end, preferably LH.
Phillies (46 wins) - back end, preferably LH.
Gnats (45 wins) - back end, either side.


That's 8 teams likely looking for pen help, most of them looking for lefties. Whichever team that winds up with Smith will have overpaid or they won't get him. I think most people completely understand if AA chooses not to do so, but there are going to be tons of disappointed fans if he could've stepped up and gotten him with a better lower-tier prospect and chooses to go get someone else that's not likely to have as big an impact because the charts said that's what he should do. If he's going to bargain shop, he might be better off holding onto everyone and using more SPs in the pen down the stretch.

[Southcack77]

Civ’s whole obswssion to overpay for relievers or other acquisitions is a little odd. It’s like the overpay is the goal for him.

[nsacpi]

Better to underpay for Diekman than overpay for Smith.

----John Milton

[Slippyjms]

I’m not sure BP is the Braves top priority. I think a SP does a lot more to shore us up for a long playoff run than 1 reliever especially considering all the arms we have at our disposal already.

[nsacpi]

I’m not sure BP is the Braves top priority. I think a SP does a lot more to shore us up for a long playoff run than 1 reliever especially considering all the arms we have at our disposal already.

The StroMan cometh.

[clvclv]

Civ’s whole obswssion to overpay for relievers or other acquisitions is a little odd. It’s like the overpay is the goal for him.

The "obsession" is with improving the team.

I'm fine if he doesn't overpay for a single piece - I'll have no problem being someone who says "I told you so" when this pen is the reason the Braves don't advance in October. Just think they're going to have one *elluva time finding innings for everyone at AAA next year after you add Anderson, Davidson, Wentz, and Muller to the mix.