TUESDAY MINORS FINAL 7/9/19; Inciarte strong day in rehab

[rico43]

TUESDAY SCOREBOARD
All Times Eastern

CLASS AAA

Gwinnett, idle

CLASS AA

Mississippi 7, Biloxi 4

SP: Muller 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
WP: Hursh (2-2) 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
Creasy 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Pache 1-2, 2B
Inciarte 2-2, R, SB
Waters 2-3, 2 R, RBI, SF
Neslony 2-4, 2B, HR (5th), 2 R, 4 RBI
Unroe 3-3, R, SB

ADVANCED CLASS A

Game One
Charlotte 5, Florida 2 (7)
(game started after 3:17 delay)

LP: Deal (3-8) 4.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Borkovich 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Bacon 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Lugbauer 2-3, 2B, RBI
Harris 1-3
Moritz 2-4, RBI, SB

Game Two
Charlotte 4, Florida 0 (7)

LP: Hartman (0-4) 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Young 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Lugbauer 1-3
Delgado 1-3

CLASS A

Charleston 9, Rome 6

LP: Rangel (7-5) 5.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Shetter 1.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Kalich 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K

Dean 2-5, 3B, R, 2 RBI
Benson 2-5, RBI
Langelier 1-4, 2 R
Shewmake 0-5
Campbell 1-5, RBI

SHORT-SEASON

Danville, idle
--------
Game One
GCL Orioles @ GCL Braves (2), ppd.
-----------
DSL Braves 7, DSL Marlins 5

SP: Sierra 1.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
Salinas 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K
WP: Solano (2-0) 3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Dilone 3-4, 2B, R, RBI
Deivi Estrada 3-4, 2B, R, RBI (.313)

[bravesfanMatt]

Did the G Braves have any all stars? I can’t remember.

[CJ9]

Did the G Braves have any all stars? I can’t remember.

Demeritte and an older reliever -- Ben Rowen, maybe?

[CJ9]

Today's GCL doubleheader postponed again.

[ball4life32]

1. Joey Wentz, LHP, Braves
Team: Double-A Mississippi (Southern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 0-1, 1.42, 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 R, 5 BB, 19 SO.

The scoop: While his Mississippi rotation mates have soared, Wentz has found Double-A to be a little more difficult. But lately there have been some very positive signs. His velocity has ticked back up to the 91-94 mph he’s shown when he’s rolling, which helps his changeup play as the above-average and even plus pitch it can be at its best. Wentz tied his career high in strikeouts with nine on July 1 and then set a new career high with 10 on July 6. (JJ)

17. Patrick Weigel, RHP, Braves
Team: Triple-A Gwinnett (International)
Age: 25
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO

The scoop: Wiegel had his swing and miss stuff working against Norfolk, whiffing nine batters in just 4 1/3 innings. Weigel’s fastball-slider combo is especially effective because he can work the slider on both sides of the dish. His second outing saw more base runners, but he managed to get through five innings with just one run coming across. (JC)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ot-sheet-7919/

[Southcack77]

1. Joey Wentz, LHP, Braves
Team: Double-A Mississippi (Southern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 0-1, 1.42, 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 R, 5 BB, 19 SO.

The scoop: While his Mississippi rotation mates have soared, Wentz has found Double-A to be a little more difficult. But lately there have been some very positive signs. His velocity has ticked back up to the 91-94 mph he’s shown when he’s rolling, which helps his changeup play as the above-average and even plus pitch it can be at its best. Wentz tied his career high in strikeouts with nine on July 1 and then set a new career high with 10 on July 6. (JJ)

17. Patrick Weigel, RHP, Braves
Team: Triple-A Gwinnett (International)
Age: 25
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO

The scoop: Wiegel had his swing and miss stuff working against Norfolk, whiffing nine batters in just 4 1/3 innings. Weigel’s fastball-slider combo is especially effective because he can work the slider on both sides of the dish. His second outing saw more base runners, but he managed to get through five innings with just one run coming across. (JC)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ot-sheet-7919/

Best thing about prospects is sometimes they drag you back in.

[Nerfherders]

Duvall hits 26 HR in AAA and doesnt make the all star team? Is it a contractual thing (he's on a ML contract)?

[Super]

1. Joey Wentz, LHP, Braves
Team: Double-A Mississippi (Southern)
Age: 21
Why He’s Here: 0-1, 1.42, 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 R, 5 BB, 19 SO.

The scoop: While his Mississippi rotation mates have soared, Wentz has found Double-A to be a little more difficult. But lately there have been some very positive signs. His velocity has ticked back up to the 91-94 mph he’s shown when he’s rolling, which helps his changeup play as the above-average and even plus pitch it can be at its best. Wentz tied his career high in strikeouts with nine on July 1 and then set a new career high with 10 on July 6. (JJ)

didn't even get a win yet he's a top performer? i guess wins don't matter to some folks.

[goldfly]

they do the AAA all star game the same day as mlb all star? thats stupid af

seems tomorrow would be a good day to do that

[50PoundHead]

Mississippi is playing today. Tied 2-2 in the 4th. Braves' runs came on 2-run HR by Tyler Neslony.

[CJ9]

Interesting in the Mississippi game today. Their Twitter account indicated before the game that Ender would be playing but he'd be coming off the bench. Sure enough, start of the fifth inning and he replaces Pache in center.

I wonder if they're preparing him to be a bench player in Atlanta?

[msstate7]

Something I just noticed about waters is his "spray chart" if you will...

A: 43.6 pull, 21.4 center, 35.0 oppo
A+: 39.6 pull, 23.1 center, 37.4 oppo
AA: 42.4 pull, 21.0 center, 36.6 oppo

That seems impressive to me

He's clearly been helped by BABIP, but his hr/fb at 6.8% seems a little unlucky with his pop

[BeanieAntics]

Something I just noticed about waters is his "spray chart" if you will...

A: 43.6 pull, 21.4 center, 35.0 oppo
A+: 39.6 pull, 23.1 center, 37.4 oppo
AA: 42.4 pull, 21.0 center, 36.6 oppo

That seems impressive to me

He's clearly been helped by BABIP, but his hr/fb at 6.8% seems a little unlucky with his pop

Seeing that spray chart makes me wonder if his BABIP could be due to him being poorly scouted by other teams. Maybe they are consistently shifting on him and he's beating it by going oppo 1/3rd of the time? I've only seen him play once so I don't know if this is it for sure, but it seems plausible.

[Enscheff]

Guys are able to sustain pretty high BABIPs in the minors because defenses suck and scouting reports don't really exist.

Top end sustainable MLB BABIP over ~1000 PAs is about .350-360.

It's plausible Waters is one of those guys, but not exactly probable.

[Southcack77]

Guys are able to sustain pretty high BABIPs in the minors because defenses suck and scouting reports don't really exist.

Top end sustainable MLB BABIP over ~1000 PAs is about .350-360.

It's plausible Waters is one of those guys, but not exactly probable.

Profile isn't terrible for it, but always best not to assume the outlier.

[Enscheff]

Plugging in expected K%, BB%, and ISO numbers for Waters gives 2 matches in 2018:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/sp...,PA%7Cgt%7C400

Derek Dietrich: .265/.330/.421 with a .336 BABIP
Gorkys Hernandez: .234/.285/.391 with a .285 BABIP

I think one line shows Water's likely production with good BABIP luck, while the other shows his likely production with poor BABIP luck.

[msstate7]

On his babip, he has 999 milb AB with a .405 babip. At what point is it not just luck? Clearly he won't be a .450 babip guy, but maybe he really is a high .300s

[msstate7]

Acuna BABIPed over .400 in the minors in 2017. Keep that in mind in projecting Waters' BABIP once he reaches the majors.

Acuna milb babip (1002 AB) = .368
Acuna mlb babip (793 AB) = .349

[nsacpi]

Acuna milb babip (1002 AB) = .368
Acuna mlb babip (793 AB) = .349

I'm happy to take under .340 on Waters' BABIP in the majors. You can name the years and any other terms.

[msstate7]

I'm happy to take under .340 on Waters' BABIP in the majors. You can name the years and any other terms.

I'm not betting on a guy's babip that I don't even know when he'll be up. Steamer will bet you though... they say .351