MiLB Pitcher Spin Rates

[Enscheff]

There has been a lot of recent discussion about how good a pitcher like Anderson is when his excellent results don't quite match some of the reports we have on things like spin rates and velocity. Since we don't have "real data" on those values, most folks have taken a wait and see approach.

FG's prospect board lists spin rates for pitchers, but only list "FB" and "Break". We don't know if "FB" is a SI or FA (low spin rate on SI is ok, low spin rate on a FA is bad), so it isn't as precise as we'd like it. However, we can check it's accuracy by comparing the value listed on the prospect boards to what statcast says about guys who actually have MLB data.

FG board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...ype=3&team=atl
and: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...ype=3&team=atl

Statcast data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc..._pas=0#results

Guys who appear on both for 2019 (FG vs Real):

Soroka: 2280 vs 2364 on FB, 2725 vs 2750 on breaking
Wright: 2400 vs 2410 on FB, 2600 vs 2678 on breaking
Touki: 2225 vs 2178 on FB, 2700 vs 2469 on breaking (something is wrong with Touki in 2019)
Ynoa: 2350 vs 2287 on FB, 2700 vs 2613 on breaking
Wilson: 2200 vs 2231 on FB, 2450 vs 2299 on breaking
Sobotka: 2425 vs 2509 on FB, 2800 vs 2946 on breaking (this is why he will get infinite chances)

The secondhand values on FG seem to track fairly well with what we see actually measured by MLB statcast systems.

This brings us to Ian Anderson: 2175 RPM on the FB, 1700 RPM on the breaking ball.

The FB spin rate would be worse than everyone other than DK and Fried, both of whom have a known flat FA. If Anderson throws a SI the low spin rate may not be such an issue because a lower spin rate will actually lead to more sink (Soroka's SI spins at 2189 RPM). Do we know what type of heater Anderson throws?

The breaking ball spin rate is much more concerning. That 1700 RPM value is shockingly low. The lowest RPM for any Braves SL is 2206, and the lowest RPM for any Braves CU is 2313. A value of 1700 is sooo bad...like among the worst in all MLB bad. If accurate, I'm not sure how a breaking ball with such low RPM could result in a usable pitch.

So does that mean Anderson is dominating MiLB hitters with velocity and elite extension? Do we expect that to work at the MLB level?

I'm hesitant to doom a SP before he even throws a pitch at the MLB level, but I have a hard time imagining how a SP is going to produce without a viable breaking ball. We have to hope that 1700 value is wrong, and when we get real data on Anderson's breaking ball it ends up being a viable pitch.

[Southcack77]

There has been a lot of recent discussion about how good a pitcher like Anderson is when his excellent results don't quite match some of the reports we have on things like spin rates and velocity. Since we don't have "real data" on those values, most folks have taken a wait and see approach.

FG's prospect board lists spin rates for pitchers, but only list "FB" and "Break". We don't know if "FB" is a SI or FA (low spin rate on SI is ok, low spin rate on a FA is bad), so it isn't as precise as we'd like it. However, we can check it's accuracy by comparing the value listed on the prospect boards to what statcast says about guys who actually have MLB data.

FG board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...ype=3&team=atl
and: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...ype=3&team=atl

Statcast data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statc..._pas=0#results

Guys who appear on both for 2019 (FG vs Real):

Soroka: 2280 vs 2364 on FB, 2725 vs 2750 on breaking
Wright: 2400 vs 2410 on FB, 2600 vs 2678 on breaking
Touki: 2225 vs 2178 on FB, 2700 vs 2469 on breaking (something is wrong with Touki in 2019)
Ynoa: 2350 vs 2287 on FB, 2700 vs 2613 on breaking
Wilson: 2200 vs 2231 on FB, 2450 vs 2299 on breaking
Sobotka: 2425 vs 2509 on FB, 2800 vs 2946 on breaking (this is why he will get infinite chances)

The secondhand values on FG seem to track fairly well with what we see actually measured by MLB statcast systems.

This brings us to Ian Anderson: 2175 RPM on the FB, 1700 RPM on the breaking ball.

The FB spin rate would be worse than everyone other than DK and Fried, both of whom have a known flat FA. If Anderson throws a SI the low spin rate may not be such an issue because a lower spin rate will actually lead to more sink (Soroka's SI spins at 2189 RPM). Do we know what type of heater Anderson throws?

The breaking ball spin rate is much more concerning. That 1700 RPM value is shockingly low. The lowest RPM for any Braves SL is 2206, and the lowest RPM for any Braves CU is 2313. A value of 1700 is sooo bad...like among the worst in all MLB bad. If accurate, I'm not sure how a breaking ball with such low RPM could result in a usable pitch.

So does that mean Anderson is dominating MiLB hitters with velocity and elite extension? Do we expect that to work at the MLB level?

I'm hesitant to doom a SP before he even throws a pitch at the MLB level, but I have a hard time imagining how a SP is going to produce without a viable breaking ball. We have to hope that 1700 value is wrong, and when we get real data on Anderson's breaking ball it ends up being a viable pitch.

We'll never know until we know is how I have resigned myself to it.

Everything I read about his fastball suggests it has strong downward action, but no one seems to describe it as a two seamer.

I suspect he spots his pitches pretty well down and away, erring out of the zone, and that helps explain his BBs and low HR rate. I'm not sure how to explain the Ks if he doesn't have a good breaking ball. I think he sits 92-94, so it's not like AA hitters should be blown away by that to the extent that he leads AA in Ks. That doesn't really make a lot of sense.

Just have to see what he is when he advances. It's a mystery.

[Bravesfannchar]

This is a. most excellent reading. Frightening wrt the number on Anderson, but an excellent read.

[weso1]

How much of an outlier is it to have a pitcher with such a significant differential in their fastball spin rate and their breaking ball spin rate in the way that it is for Anderson? The answer to that question could give us a hint about whether or not the spin rate data is off.

[Jaw]

When I saw Anderson in Rome he definitely was not throwing a sinker. He primarily worked off of a mid 90s fastball up in the zone. I remember one inning where he walked 2 or 3 guys straight, all on high fastballs. He was visibly angry with himself, presumably because he couldn't get the ball down.

[Enscheff]

How much of an outlier is it to have a pitcher with such a significant differential in their fastball spin rate and their breaking ball spin rate in the way that it is for Anderson? The answer to that question could give us a hint about whether or not the spin rate data is off.

Good point. Almost every pitcher I’ve looked at has higher RPM on the breaking ball than the fastball.

Like many others, I have a hard time believing that 1700 value.

[rico43]

If you make advanced studies on this, does that make you a spin doctor?

[Tapate50]

From FG chat:


Nick: I’m having trouble putting together Ian Anderson‘s performance on the field with his incredibly poor spin rate on the curveball. Is that spin rate cause for concern in the big leagues that makes him a sell high candidate for Atlanta, or how else is he getting these results with a breaking ball that has such a bad spin rate?




12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s spin efficient. He has an over the top slot so all that tumble is occurring straight down and the pitch has workable movement despite lackluster raw spin. Same for MacKenzie Gore.