Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 54

Thread: Inciarte is back: what to look for

  1. #1
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts

    Inciarte is back: what to look for

    After a stint on the IL, Inciarte is back in action. Prior to this season, he had been a reliable ~3 win guy by contributing elite defense in CF and an average or slightly below average bat. The Braves have ~2 weeks to decide if Inciarte is "back", which isn't a lot of time. Luckily, there are some bits of data that stabilize relatively quickly, and showed us signs that he was injured even before he hit the IL officially.

    1. Average FB/LD exit velocity:

    2015: 87.8 mph
    2016: 87.7 mph
    2017: 87.5 mph
    2018: 87.9 mph
    2019: 84.7 mph

    Inciarte was a very consistent ball striker until suddenly losing 3 mph of exit velocity in 2019. This screamed injury, and now that he's supposedly healthy I expect to see his exit velocity increase significantly over the next 2 weeks.

    2. Average Sprint Speed:

    2015: 28.0 ft/s
    2016: 27.9 ft/s
    2017: 27.2 ft/s
    2018: 27.9 ft/s
    2019: 26.2 ft/s

    Inciarte was never a burner, but he was consistently around 28 ft/s (pretty sure he dealt with nagging injuries in 2017). Suddenly in 2019 his sprint speed tanked. Unfortunately, there is no way to set a date range on the sprint speed leader boards, but since this metric is calculated using the fastest two-thirds of a player's competitive runs, his overall value should start to increase relatively quickly. A healthy Inciarte for 2 weeks should get that mark over or near 27 ft/s.

    3. FB%

    2014: 24.6%
    2015: 25.9%
    2016: 26.8%
    2017: 29.1%
    2018: 30.9%
    2019: 18.1%

    Inciarte obviously isn't a power hitter, but whatever was wrong with him caused his launch angle to suffer, and lots of fly balls became grounders. We don't want to see Inciarte grounding out weakly to the right side, and a FB rate of 25%-30% will be a good proxy as to whether or not that's happening.

    4. Z-Contact%

    2014: 95.5%
    2015: 94.2%
    2016: 94.9%
    2017: 92.4%
    2018: 90.4%
    2019: 84.5%

    Inciarte went from excellent bat control that was declining, to a sudden and sharp drop off in 2019. It's not hard to imagine how a back injury could affect contact rate. I expect a healthy Inciarte to post a Z-Contact of 90% or better.

    Regardless of the results over the next 2 weeks, if Ender's exit velocity is up around 87-88 mph, his sprint speed creeps up towards 27 ft/s, his FB% gets back to 25%+, and he makes contact with ~90% of balls he swings at in the zone, I think the FO will determine Inciarte is "back". If those rates do not improve, I think they will look to add an OFer at the deadline.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 07-18-2019 at 06:20 PM.

  2. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    Jaw (07-18-2019), JohnAdcox (07-19-2019), jpx7 (07-18-2019), salmagundy (07-18-2019), Skeeter31 (07-18-2019)

  3. #2
    It's OVER 5,000! Jaw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,202
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,344
    Thanked in
    1,625 Posts
    That's some really cool work Enscheff.
    Go get him!

    Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Jaw For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (07-19-2019)

  5. #3
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    After 1 time on base last night his sprint speed has ticked up to 26.3.

    Grasping at straws that Ender is back and the Braves don’t have to go shopping for an OFer.

  6. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (07-21-2019), jpx7 (07-29-2019)

  7. #4
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    4,515
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    190
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    843
    Thanked in
    599 Posts
    This is great Cheff !

  8. #5
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    The trade deadline is fast approaching, and with the Braves facing Corbin tonight, Ender is unlikely to add any more data to be evaluated.

    1. Average FB/LD exit velocity:

    Sitting at 88.2 mph since he came back, up from 84.7 mph pre-IL, and exactly in line with his career norms. Inciarte is once again striking the ball as well as he always has.

    2. Average Sprint Speed:

    Up to 26.5 ft/s from 26.2 ft/s prior to the IL trip. There's no way to set a date range on this metric, but the average is climbing rapidly, so it's very likely his recent sprints have been in his typical range of just under 28 ft/s.

    3. FB%

    37.5% since coming back, up from 18.1%. It hasn't been the best contact, but he is once again getting the ball in the air.

    4. Z-Contact%

    Another stat I can't split based on a date range, but it is up to 85.3% from 84.5%. This means his contact rate has been much better and is slowly pulling his season average up.

    Conclusion:

    The Braves didn't have much time to evaluate Inciarte, but he appears to be "back". The need for an OFer certainly still exists, but the need for a CFer specifically doesn't.

    Inciarte should be pretty much what we expect from him moving forward: 2-3 win CFer with excellent defense, a slightly below average bat, and needs to see his PAs vs LHP limited.

  9. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    Carp (07-29-2019), Jaw (07-29-2019), JohnAdcox (07-29-2019), jpx7 (07-29-2019), salmagundy (07-29-2019), UNCBlue012 (07-29-2019)

  10. #6
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,337
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,593
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,752
    Thanked in
    5,746 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The trade deadline is fast approaching, and with the Braves facing Corbin tonight, Ender is unlikely to add any more data to be evaluated.

    1. Average FB/LD exit velocity:

    Sitting at 88.2 mph since he came back, up from 84.7 mph pre-IL, and exactly in line with his career norms. Inciarte is once again striking the ball as well as he always has.

    2. Average Sprint Speed:

    Up to 26.5 ft/s from 26.2 ft/s prior to the IL trip. There's no way to set a date range on this metric, but the average is climbing rapidly, so it's very likely his recent sprints have been in his typical range of just under 28 ft/s.

    3. FB%

    37.5% since coming back, up from 18.1%. It hasn't been the best contact, but he is once again getting the ball in the air.

    4. Z-Contact%

    Another stat I can't split based on a date range, but it is up to 85.3% from 84.5%. This means his contact rate has been much better and is slowly pulling his season average up.

    Conclusion:

    The Braves didn't have much time to evaluate Inciarte, but he appears to be "back". The need for an OFer certainly still exists, but the need for a CFer specifically doesn't.

    Inciarte should be pretty much what we expect from him moving forward: 2-3 win CFer with excellent defense, a slightly below average bat, and needs to see his PAs vs LHP limited.
    If Snitker is going to play Markakis against lefties, I have no doubt he'll start ender and put him in 8th. Don't think he wants Riley-Acuna-Duvall in same OF.
    Forever Fredi


  11. #7
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Great news. A healthy ender is our 2nd best OF. Adding A healthy Duvall also makes our OF situation that much better.

  12. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (07-29-2019), jpx7 (07-29-2019)

  13. #8
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Great news. A healthy ender is our 2nd best OF. Adding A healthy Duvall also makes our OF situation that much better.
    I really can't wait to see if Duvall can keep this up. I think he has a chance to be a really solid contributor this year and next year.

  14. #9
    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    37,263
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    404
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,293
    Thanked in
    3,675 Posts
    Ready to see lineup tonight. Will snit stick with platoon options with markakis hurt? I think we see duvall, Riley, and Acuna (if healthy).

  15. #10
    Voted Worst Poster
    '13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner)
    Heyward's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    22,572
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,251
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,257
    Thanked in
    1,831 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Ready to see lineup tonight. Will snit stick with platoon options with markakis hurt? I think we see duvall, Riley, and Acuna (if healthy).
    Acuna/Ozzie/FF/JD/Riley/Duvall/Camargo/Flowers/DK?

  16. #11
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,337
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,593
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,752
    Thanked in
    5,746 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Ready to see lineup tonight. Will snit stick with platoon options with markakis hurt? I think we see duvall, Riley, and Acuna (if healthy).
    Snitkers rarely benched Neck for platoon.

    Ender is swinging well and playing great defense.

    He may go with hot hand.
    Forever Fredi


  17. #12
    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    37,263
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    404
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,293
    Thanked in
    3,675 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Individual-1 View Post
    Snitkers rarely benched Neck for platoon.

    Ender is swinging well and playing great defense.

    He may go with hot hand.
    Could do it. Wasn't Riley's last good game vs Corbin?

  18. #13
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    If Riley isn't going to start tonight, why is he on the roster at all?

  19. The Following User Says Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (07-29-2019)

  20. #14
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    24,244
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,032
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,990
    Thanked in
    5,481 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If Riley isn't going to start tonight, why is he on the roster at all?

  21. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to CyYoung31 For This Useful Post:

    Carp (07-29-2019), CJ9 (07-29-2019), jpx7 (07-29-2019), UNCBlue012 (07-29-2019)

  22. #15
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    This does make me feel a bit better about Inciarte.

  23. #16
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,385
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,745
    Thanked in
    1,974 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I really can't wait to see if Duvall can keep this up. I think he has a chance to be a really solid contributor this year and next year.
    And the year after. Gained an extra year of control keeping him down as long as we did.

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Carp For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (07-29-2019)

  25. #17
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If Riley isn't going to start tonight, why is he on the roster at all?
    He should have been sent down to get regular plate appearances a week ago at the latest. At this point I'd be more interested in seeing what Demeritte might do if given a shot at a bench role. I'm not sure he'd be better than Riley, but Riley needs some plate appearances to work through whatever is going on with him. We have a lot invested in that guy. Not so much with Demeritte.

  26. #18
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    He should have been sent down to get regular plate appearances a week ago at the latest. At this point I'd be more interested in seeing what Demeritte might do if given a shot at a bench role. I'm not sure he'd be better than Riley, but Riley needs some plate appearances to work through whatever is going on with him. We have a lot invested in that guy. Not so much with Demeritte.

    I don't think a team that sees Duvall as an every day player over Riley has much use for Riley being up. I'd send him down for awhile to work on things at least until you concluded that Duvall was not the answer.

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to Southcack77 For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (07-29-2019)

  28. #19
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Enders sprint speed and z-contact continue to rise. He's been worth 0.5 fWAR since coming back as well. I'd say we have healthy Ender which is very much needed.

  29. The Following User Says Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (08-08-2019)

  30. #20
    Voted Worst Poster
    '13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner)
    Heyward's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    22,572
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,251
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,257
    Thanked in
    1,831 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Enders sprint speed and z-contact continue to rise. He's been worth 0.5 fWAR since coming back as well. I'd say we have healthy Ender which is very much needed.
    I wonder what AA does with Ender once Pache comes up whenever that is, either end of year or early next year to protect his clock.

    I guess it also depends what he does with the other OF spot.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 06-12-2016, 12:17 AM
  2. 6/11 Saturday's Minors Final ...M-Braves split back-to-back marathons
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 06-12-2016, 12:17 AM
  3. GDT 5/21 BRAVES vs PHILLIES Seeking back-to-back wins?
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 52
    Last Post: 05-22-2016, 09:29 AM
  4. MINORS FINAL 6/27: BACK-TO-BACK NO HITTERS!!!
    By rico43 in forum Rico's Reports 2014
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 06-28-2014, 09:21 AM
  5. Back-to-back shutouts cap Danville's 7-game winning streak
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 07-16-2013, 06:12 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •