Generic minor league thread - Until the Great Rico returns

[Tapate50]

Gwinnett W 4-2
Wright 6IP 6k 1ER OBB 5H
Pache 0-2 2BBs 2Ks
Waters 0-4 2k
Minter SV (3)

FG chat:



pelkey: not trying to suggest that they are terribly similar players or anything, but could drew waters be on that moncada-like spectrum of players who don’t get exposed until they reach the highest level of competition? or is it more like his approach is too geared toward contact (which is why he isn’t getting to power)?




12:32

Kiley McDaniel: staying on the same topic…




12:36

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some thought that Waters is talented enough that he won’t adjust until he’s challenged and thus falls into Brinson/Robert/Acuna vortex where you need a slew of 6 and 7 tools to continue as is and succeed in MLB. He may also be hunting pitches and has enough hitter IQ to adapt his approach at each level and just always put up plate discipline numbers close to these. Being an up-the-middle guy with a history of hitting for years and young for the level allows you to believe more than this can continue as-is. But yes, Waters is in this general area where the pitch selection will dictate his offensive output.

Also- note FG made on Ian Andersons breaking stuff-



Nick: Ian Anderson’s numbers are insane, and I keep reading his breaking ball is really good. But the spin rate you guys have on it is really low. What am I missing?




1:16

Kiley McDaniel: It flashed 60 as an amateur but is a 50 pitch now. The spin rate is very low, but it’s spin efficient so that sorta overstates the issue. The CH has improved as the CB regressed a bit.

[Super]

6 Ks for Wright as well. his BB numbers have been so good. wish he could find himself in the majors.

[Tapate50]

Mississippi 8 Jacksonville 2
Jenista 2-5 1k
CJ Alexander 2-5 2HR 3RBI
Casteel 3-5 2hr 4RBI
Trey Harris 1-5

Pen combined for 4IP 8k 0R on 4 hits (Aro, Roney, Harrison)
Johnstone 5IP 2ER 1BB 5H 3k

[BeanieAntics]

Mississippi 8 Jacksonville 2
Jenista 2-5 1k
CJ Alexander 2-5 2HR 3RBI
Casteel 3-5 2hr 4RBI
Trey Harris 1-5

Pen combined for 4IP 8k 0R on 4 hits (Aro, Roney, Harrison)
Johnstone 5IP 2ER 1BB 5H 3k

Good to see that from CJ Alexander.

[Tapate50]

Florida 2 Daytona 3

Lugbauer 2-4
Ramos 2-4
Dirks 2.2 IP 1h 1k 1bb
Borkovich 4IP 3H 1k 1Bb 1R

[Tapate50]

Rome 8 West Va 6

Dean 2-5 HR (8) .283
Shewmake 1-5 .320
Vasquez 3-5 HR (1)
Langeliers 1-4 2RBI .206

Kalich 2IP 1bb 1k .73 ERA
Lawson (SV) 2IP 2H 1R 0ER 2k 1.94

[50PoundHead]

Rome 8 West Va 6

Dean 2-5 HR (8) .283
Shewmake 1-5 .320
Vasquez 3-5 HR (1)
Langeliers 1-4 2RBI .206

Kalich 2IP 1bb 1k .73 ERA
Lawson (SV) 2IP 2H 1R 0ER 2k 1.94

Interesting season for Lawson.

This is Vazquez' fourth season in pro ball, but he's still only 20. There may be something there although this season looks to be a bit of a washout.

[Tapate50]

Interesting season for Lawson.

This is Vazquez' fourth season in pro ball, but he's still only 20. There may be something there although this season looks to be a bit of a washout.

Nice season for Dean. Don't remember much about him. 8 Homers in A ball from your leadoff guy isn't half bad.

[50PoundHead]

I've been checking the DSL box scores/stats on a regular basis. The thing that's surprising is that they are sitting at .500 with a bunch of low-budget guys (many of whom are repeaters). OF Deivi Estrada is the only guy who shows up near the top in the league stat leaders. Does anyone here have any idea on what happened to Asmin Bautista, the team's top-signee from a couple years back? He played in the DSL last season (not particularly well, but showed some power potential), but he's not on any roster that I can see in 2019.

CJ Alexander hits his first 2 AA HRs in Mississippi's 8-2 win. Big night for Casteel (3/5, 2 HR, 4 RBI) and multi-hit games from Contreras (3/5), Jenista (2/5) and Didder (2/5). Bradley Roney strikes out the side in the 9th. He's had a pretty decent bounce-back season after sitting out 2018 with an injury. He's always had a big-time K-rate, but his control seems to have improved this year. At 26, things may have to happen pretty fast for him, but it's nice to see his recovery.

[Enscheff]

Nick: Ian Anderson’s numbers are insane, and I keep reading his breaking ball is really good. But the spin rate you guys have on it is really low. What am I missing?

1:16
Kiley McDaniel: It flashed 60 as an amateur but is a 50 pitch now. The spin rate is very low, but it’s spin efficient so that sorta overstates the issue. The CH has improved as the CB regressed a bit.

Since the CH is used vs LHH, and the CU is used against RHH, I would expect Anderson to show better K numbers vs LHH than RHH if the CH is significantly better than the CU.

2019 (AA)
K% vs RHH: 29.7%
K% vs LHH: 33.9%

2018 (A+/AA)
K% vs RHH: 26.2%
K% vs LHH: 31.1%

2017 (A)
K% vs RHH: 27.3%
K% vs LHH: 30.1%

So, yeah, there's something to the notion that he is using good FA velocity and a good CH to slay inexperienced LHH at the MiLB level.

Is this because MiLB hitters haven't seen enough CHs to adjust? Will AAA hitters expose this?

I could foresee a scenario where Anderson comes up to make his MLB debut, the opposing team stacks their lineup with LHH, and Anderson mows them down with his good CH until word gets out that he has reverse splits.

Or...he is Kevin Gausman without a breaking ball.

[Tapate50]

Since the CH is used vs LHH, and the CU is used against RHH, I would expect Anderson to show better K numbers vs LHH than RHH if the CH is significantly better than the CU.

2019 (AA)
K% vs RHH: 29.7%
K% vs LHH: 33.9%

2018 (A+/AA)
K% vs RHH: 26.2%
K% vs LHH: 31.1%

2017 (A)
K% vs RHH: 27.3%
K% vs LHH: 30.1%

So, yeah, there's something to the notion that he is using good FA velocity and a good CH to slay inexperienced LHH at the MiLB level.

Is this because MiLB hitters haven't seen enough CHs to adjust? Will AAA hitters expose this?

I could foresee a scenario where Anderson comes up to make his MLB debut, the opposing team stacks their lineup with LHH, and Anderson mows them down with his good CH until word gets out that he has reverse splits.

Or...he is Kevin Gausman without a breaking ball.

What about that ELITE extension though?

[thewupk]

What about that ELITE extension though?

I thought we were talking about Anderson and not Stroman

[Tapate50]

I thought we were talking about Anderson and not Stroman

Anderson could be elite. thethe is investigating.

[Enscheff]

What about that ELITE extension though?

I'm sure extension necessarily causes fastballs to be "perceived" as having higher velocity or not (in all or most cases), but it could certainly be a contributing factor to his success.

Folks are assuming batters don't start tracking a ball until it leaves the pitcher's hand, which is probably not completely accurate in all (or most) cases. What if batters track/time a pitch much earlier than the time of release? If that's the case, then where the pitcher releases the ball would have very little impact on "perceived" velocity.

Does work exist that shows the effects of perceived velocity vs actual velocity?

[bravesfanMatt]

4 mlb starts. He is still maturing as a pitcher. I have no problems with him coming up and getting exposed and then taking that knowledge to improve against weaker opponents. I am always interested in his minor league starts.

[The Chosen One]

4 mlb starts. He is still maturing as a pitcher. I have no problems with him coming up and getting exposed and then taking that knowledge to improve against weaker opponents. I am always interested in his minor league starts.

The issue is, when he was drafted as a polished college starter he was already considered a matured pitcher.

This isn't him getting drafted out of high school like Soroka. Someone like Strasburg made an immediate impact. Wright was drafted pretty high so he should be making an impact soon.

It took Minor a few years to be above average. He was drafted around the same situation as Wright.

[Tapate50]

Does work exist that shows the effects of perceived velocity vs actual velocity?

Hey man I just work here.

[Slippyjms]

I’m at the point where I’ve stopped caring about Wright’s minor league stats. He needs to prove it at the big league level.

[bravesfanMatt]

I’m at the point where I’ve stopped caring about Wright’s minor league stats. He needs to prove it at the big league level.

Why

[Enscheff]

Why

Because poor execution is more likely to be exposed at the MLB level than the AAA level.

Of course, the Braves have a lot more data about his AAA performances than we do, so I have to assume they can make a determination based on AAA performance.