Page 8 of 9 FirstFirst ... 6789 LastLast
Results 141 to 160 of 166

Thread: GDT 9/2/19: Happy Labor Day!!!

  1. #141
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    You said the same last time but it was our righties that hit him best and that has been a trend against him lately in his struggles.
    Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.

    Eric Hinske once had a season where he hit lefty pitching better than righty pitching. Didn't change the fact that the right play against him was to bring in the lefty when he was up.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-02-2019 at 07:02 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (09-02-2019)

  3. #142
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.
    Markakis has struggled against him and lefties in general and shouldn't start against him or Kershaw. Now against Walker Buehler, now that is a match-up that favors Markakis and a game I support starting him if he is healthy and sharp. The sample is obviously smaller head-to-head but it is clear Markakis has issues with lefties and that sample should rule here. Just as it should with Joyce despite his small sample of success this year against lefties.
    Last edited by Braves1976; 09-02-2019 at 07:10 PM.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Braves1976 For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (09-02-2019)

  5. #143
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Sure. I'm willing to stick with my take. I am a firm believer in giving more weight to bigger sample sizes over smaller ones. If Ryu had somehow become a significantly different pitcher this year I'd reconsider. But he is still relying heavily on that changeup.

    Eric Hinske once had a season where he hit lefty pitching better than righty pitching. Didn't change the fact that the right play against him was to bring in the lefty when he was up.
    The Hinske example fits the Joyce example this year, no disagreement there. But expecting Markakis who has struggled a lot vs lefties this year to be a better match-up vs Ryu than a lefty masher righty who has homered off him a few times already in the past is where we disagree.

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Braves1976 For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (09-02-2019)

  7. #144
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,337
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,593
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,752
    Thanked in
    5,746 Posts
    Lost in all of this, I am happy for Soroka that he got a win.
    Forever Fredi


  8. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to The Chosen One For This Useful Post:

    Braves1976 (09-02-2019), JohnAdcox (09-02-2019), jpx7 (09-02-2019)

  9. #145
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
    Lost in all of this, I am happy for Soroka that he got a win.
    Me too as he has had a ton of ND in games he dominated. He even got a loss in his last good game too.

  10. #146
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    The Hinske example fits the Joyce example this year, no disagreement there. But expecting Markakis who has struggled a lot vs lefties this year to be a better match-up vs Ryu than a lefty masher righty who has homered off him a few times already in the past is where we disagree.
    Just a general observation about players with reverse splits. Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters and pitchers have conventional splits. So when a pitcher generates reverse splits over his career he is doing this for the most part against hitters with conventional splits. In other words, Ryu has mainly faced RHH with conventional splits and LHH with conventional splits in his career. There is something specific to his way of pitching that induces LHHs with conventional splits (of which McCann, Markakis, Joyce and Inciarte would be examples) to do better against him than RHHs with conventional splits (of which Duvall, Riley and Flowers are examples).

    One additional observation about his having conventional splits in 2019. He has done very well against LHHs this year. But that's over the equivalent of 42 innings. Think of how volatile reliever data are from year to year. Ryu has faced LHHs this year in the equivalent of two-thirds the sample size for a regularly used reliever in a full season. He's been helped over this small sample by lefties having a BABIP of .214 against him. This is why splits data in a single season can be misleading. With small samples you can get crazy results due to BABIP or HR/FB fluctuating wildly.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-02-2019 at 07:53 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  11. #147
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Against Ryu it’s a matter of batter platoon split vs pitcher platoon split. I have a hard time believing Markakis is the correct play vs Ryu, but I haven’t dug into the batter/pitcher platoon topic much.

  12. #148
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Against Ryu it’s a matter of batter platoon split vs pitcher platoon split. I have a hard time believing Markakis is the correct play vs Ryu, but I haven’t dug into the batter/pitcher platoon topic much.
    Just keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters have conventional splits. A pitcher like Ryu over his career has something about the way he pitches that allows lefties with conventional splits to outperform righties with conventional splits. With Ryu there is no mystery as to why that is the case. He has elite control which allows him to hit the lower outside corner or pitch just outside the strike zone when ahead in the count. And his best pitch is his change. This is the classic profile for lefty pitchers who generate reverse splits.

    If there is some additional digging to do it would be along the lines of looking for right handed hitters who hit the change well. If say Flowers or Duvall is a good changeup hitter then sure put them in the lineup against him.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  13. #149
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    24,244
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,032
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,990
    Thanked in
    5,481 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Got to use the stat that supports your arguement the most.
    That's all I'm saying.

  14. #150
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Just a general observation about players with reverse splits. Keep in mind the overwhelming majority of hitters and pitchers have conventional splits. So when a pitcher generates reverse splits over his career he is doing this for the most part against hitters with conventional splits. In other words, Ryu has mainly faced RHH with conventional splits and LHH with conventional splits in his career. There is something specific to his way of pitching that induces LHHs with conventional splits (of which McCann, Markakis, Joyce and Inciarte would be examples) to do better against him than RHHs with conventional splits (of which Duvall, Riley and Flowers are examples).

    One additional observation about his having conventional splits in 2019. He has done very well against LHHs this year. But that's over the equivalent of 42 innings. Think of how volatile reliever data are from year to year. Ryu has faced LHHs this year in the equivalent of two-thirds the sample size for a regularly used reliever in a full season. He's been helped over this small sample by lefties having a BABIP of .214 against him. This is why splits data in a single season can be misleading. With small samples you can get crazy results due to BABIP or HR/FB fluctuating wildly.
    If this was 2017 I'd agree with you as back then Ryu sucked vs lefties and Markakis hit them. Now Markakis doesn't hit lefties (OPS just over .600) and Ryu no longer sucks vs lefties (.326 BAA vs lefties in 2017, .190 BAA vs lefties in 2019).
    Last edited by Braves1976; 09-02-2019 at 08:23 PM.

  15. #151
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    If this was 2017 I'd agree with you as back then Ryu sucked vs lefties and Markakis hit them. Now Markakis doesn't hit lefties (OPS just over .600) and Ryu no longer sucks vs lefties (.326 BAA vs lefties in 2017, .190 BAA vs lefties in 2019).
    Ryu has not really improved against lefties. He's just gotten very lucky against them in a small sample. A .214 BABIP against will mask a lot of things.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  16. #152
    Arbitration Eligible NYCBrave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    3,271
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    720
    Thanked in
    526 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    Markakis has struggled against him and lefties in general and shouldn't start against him or Kershaw. Now against Walker Buehler, now that is a match-up that favors Markakis and a game I support starting him if he is healthy and sharp. The sample is obviously smaller head-to-head but it is clear Markakis has issues with lefties and that sample should rule here. Just as it should with Joyce despite his small sample of success this year against lefties.
    We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....

  17. #153
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,903
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    47,596
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    6,441
    Thanked in
    3,830 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....
    Wild Card team will have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS, so it makes sense to consider those matchups.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  18. #154
    Arbitration Eligible NYCBrave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    3,271
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    720
    Thanked in
    526 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Wild Card team will have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS, so it makes sense to consider those matchups.
    Our chances of winning the division are 92%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...b-predictions/

  19. #155
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    We haven't won a playoff series in nearly 2 decades, yet we're already trying to figure out the best lineup to use vs the Dodgers in the NLCS. Hmmm....
    You have a point.

    I think we should be rooting pretty strongly for the Cards over the Cubs. I have concerns about seeing Muk and Ender in the lineup against the lefty starters the Cubs have.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  20. #156
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Ryu has not really improved against lefties. He's just gotten very lucky against them in a small sample. A .214 BABIP against will mask a lot of things.
    A pitcher can improve and also be very lucky, his 2017 numbers were terrible against them. So he isn't as great as the .190 BAA suggests. OK I can buy that but I don't buy that he hasn't improved vs lefties since 2017.

  21. #157
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    You have a point.

    I think we should be rooting pretty strongly for the Cards over the Cubs. I have concerns about seeing Muk and Ender in the lineup against the lefty starters the Cubs have.
    We should have the same concerns vs the Dodgers, even Freeman hasn't hit lefties as good this year but he's hit righties a ton.

  22. #158
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    We should have the same concerns vs the Dodgers, even Freeman hasn't hit lefties as good this year but he's hit righties a ton.
    with Freeman (as with any player) I would look more at his career splits or splits over a 3 year period than splits over the current season to predict how he does the rest of the way in

    you know Muk had a period last year where he hit lefties very well...very misleading due to small sample

    Ender had one season a few years ago where he hit lefties very well...again misleading and not useful for prediction due to small sample

    with splits a single season of data has a lot of noise in it
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  23. #159
    It's OVER 5,000! Braves1976's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    15,027
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    7,679
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,207
    Thanked in
    1,642 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    with Freeman (as with any player) I would look more at his career splits or splits over a 3 year period than splits over the current season to predict how he does the rest of the way in
    I would too if facing lefties he has past success against.

  24. #160
    It's OVER 5,000! Hudson2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,679
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    956
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,455
    Thanked in
    1,123 Posts
    I wanna see the Dodgers and Nats face off in the playoffs bc I think they have the best chance to knock them out.

Similar Threads

  1. College Football You Pick: Labor Day Weekend
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum Fulton County Fire & BBQ
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 09-01-2017, 06:59 PM
  2. 9/5 LABOR DAY MINORS THREAD ... Day Games Galore
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 09-06-2016, 03:14 PM
  3. College Football You Pick: Labor Day Weekend
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum Fulton County Fire & BBQ
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 09-01-2016, 09:00 AM
  4. Some pictures from the labor day no hitter....
    By goldfly in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 09-09-2014, 04:56 PM
  5. College Football You Pick: Labor Day Weekend
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum Fulton County Fire & BBQ
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 08-28-2013, 08:11 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •