If We Can Sign Only 1 Current Brave to a Long-Term Deal...

[nsacpi]

which one would you choose and why?

My choice would be Simba.

Reasons:

1) Players whose defense is a big part of their value tend to be underpaid relative to overall value.

2) The aging curve when it comes to defense at short seems favorable. See Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, Belanger, Trammell for a few examples.

3) Simba still has some offensive upside. The question is which direction his bat will take. Will the power seen last year continue to develop? Or will he figure out he is more valuable by focusing more on line drives than home runs? His hand-eye coordination is off the charts. What will determine how he develops will be his mental evolution as a hitter.

4) He will be more difficult to replace than the other candidates for a long-term deal: Heyward, Freeman and Justin Upton. There are always a decent selection of corner outfielders and corner infielders to sign or trade for at reasonable cost. An exceptional defensive shortstop with some pop is much harder to find. We do have Peraza in our system. But we also have a fair number of guys who can play the corners in the system as well: Terdoslavich, Salcedo, Elander, Kubitza, Victor Reyes, Caratini if he doesn't go back to catching.

5) As great as Simba is and as favorable the defensive metrics have been, I suspect that his true value is even greater than the stats suggest. We have a solid group of starting pitchers, but for the most part they are not elite strikeout pitchers. They induce weak contact and rely on the defense behind them. Simmons is extremely important for those types of pitchers.

6) He is further away from free agency than the other candidates, leaving more scope for a deal that trades off average annual value for risk reduction.

[zitothebrave]

Heyward.

Because I believe he is the best player of that group and will have the best career. Simmons and Freeman aren't as complete of players as Jason is

[thethe]

Freeman will be the best hitter. We need a bopper in the middle the lineup.

[skillet]

By a very, very close margin:

1. Simmons
2. Freeman
3. Heyward

[zitothebrave]

Freeman will be the best hitter. We need a bopper in the middle the lineup.

I don't think Freeman being the best hitter is a given. Obviously Freeman killed it last year. But that said we need to see if he can keep it up. Heyward had a very good offensive season (tied with Freeman's second best) despite posting a below average BABIP.

FWIW to compare Freeman's BABIP by season

2011 - .339
2012 - .295
2013 - .371

Compared to Heyward

2010 - .335
2011 - .260
2012 - .319
2013 - .281

Obviously 2011 for Jason was hurt in 2011 and that should largely be thrown out. The question is who do you think should have the higher BABIP?

Freeman certainly hits more line drives, which traditionally leads to a higher BABIP. On their Career's their LD/FB/GB percentages are

Heyward 18.0/32.9/49.1
Freeman 25.1/35.6/39.3

2 notable facts. First I think Freddie should be higher, mainly because Freddie has a much lower IFFB%. But I think that when we have a larger sample the 2 will be pretty closer. Heyward hits more GB and less FB which leads to more hits. Especially considering that Jason is very fast so he'll beat out a few with his legs a season as well. Freeman hits more liners which leads to more hits.

But what I think is almost a lock, is that Jason has more power than Freddie. So when you look at the 2 you have Freddie who should hit for a higher average and Jason who should hit for more power. Both Walk well (Jason with a slight edge) and both need to lower their Ks to go to the next level.

That said both of them look good going forward. The area where Freddie has the advantage is health. Where Jason has the advantage is ceiling. More power, more walks, much better defense and baserunning. Heyward's ceiling is that of an MVP, Freddie needs to cut Ks and add pop to get there, and it's not easy to do both of them.

[thethe]

I think Freddie also has a much higher floor. There are just so many moving parts to Jasons swing and he looks awful a lot. I think he will be a good hitter of course but I just think its a given for Freeman.

[NinersSBChamps]

Uggla would be my top priority followed closely by BJ Upton.

[mossy]

Freeman.

[bravesnumberone]

Freeman. Need to see Heyward put together a couple of strong seasons in a row WHILE staying healthy. Hope we lock them both down.

Simmons would be third on the list.

[gtcway]

I say Freeman because IMO (no facts or stats to support this) a good to great hitting 1st baseman will have a longer productive career than an outfielder.

Plus, I just don't see Heyward being here long term. I think he's just waiting to go to the highest bidder and I know there will be at least a couple teams willing to go higher than the Braves.

[Heyward]

Freeman then Heyward/Simmons.

Love Heyward but as thethe said, he has a lot of moving parts to his swing.

Yes,his defense/base running is elite, but hes not as good of a pure hitter as Freeman.

Simmons is further away from FA.

Heyward i dont know if he will sign a longterm deal.

Freeman just makes it look so easy when he hits.

[nsacpi]

Freeman is a beautiful hitter to watch. One of the top 10 in the majors imo. But virtually all of his value is wrapped up in his bat and those players tend to get paid more relative to those who add more value on defense or with baserunning.

Here's a thought experiment to try: How man wins do we lose if we replace Heyward with Joey T in right? And how many wins do we lose if we replace Freeman with Joey T at first?

[Heyward]

Freeman is a beautiful hitter to watch. One of the top 10 in the majors imo. But virtually all of his value is wrapped up in his bat and those players tend to get paid more relative to those who add more value on defense or with baserunning.

He's not an elite defender, but hardly awful.

And what 1B is a great base runner with tons of speed.

[nsacpi]

He's not an elite defender, but hardly awful.

And what 1B is a great base runner with tons of speed.

That's sort of the point about first basemen in general. They play the least demanding position in the game. Most of them are slow. It is the nature of the beast and has to be taken into account when trying to judge how valuable a player is or how difficult he is to replace. If Freddie had more range he'd be playing a different position. He does have a very good arm (was highly regarded as a HS pitcher), so I assume range is the reason he is not playing some other position. I believe he played a handful of games at third in the low minors.

[Perfect Cell]

Heyward and its not even close.

[cajunrevenge]

Easily Freeman in my opinion. I think he is on his way to being one of the best hitters in the game and although he doesnt have a lot of range at 1B he is great at scooping the ball which is the most important part of 1B defense. Not only is he good with the bat but he is also consistent which is not something we have a lot of.

[Jay212033]

Heyward and its not even close.

It's close but I believe Hayward is gonna breakout big time this season.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Teheran.

[goosecreekbrave]

Teheran.

I think we still need to see more from him. If he has another good season, it'll be interesting to see how this discussion goes in December 2014.

[Heyward]

Heyward and its not even close.

Thanks.