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Thread: Starting Pitching

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Brings a smile to my face knowing the board finally realizes just how good Fried is....
    They are being assimilated.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The Mormon church no longer frowns on advanced analytics.

    #changingwiththetimes
    Good to know Dale Murphy is keeping up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Good to know Dale Murphy is keeping up.
    Dale has been spotted eating coffee ice cream.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    With the off days built into the NLDS schedule, whoever starts game 1 or 2 will be available to start game 5 on 4 or 5 days of rest.

    Keeping that in mind, we also know Fried can be a weapon out of the BP in games he isn’t starting.

    I would open with Fried in game 1, which makes him available from the BP in games 3 and 4.

    Soroka gets game 2 and 5.

    DK gets game 3, with Folty, Fried and Teheran ready.

    Folty, Fried and Teheran tag team game 4, none of them taking a PA.

    Soroka gets game 5.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    With the off days built into the NLDS schedule, whoever starts game 1 or 2 will be available to start game 5 on 4 or 5 days of rest.

    Keeping that in mind, we also know Fried can be a weapon out of the BP in games he isn’t starting.

    I would open with Fried in game 1, which makes him available from the BP in games 3 and 4.

    Soroka gets game 2 and 5.

    DK gets game 3, with Folty, Fried and Teheran ready.

    Folty, Fried and Teheran tag team game 4, none of them taking a PA.

    Soroka gets game 5.
    Works for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Dale has been spotted eating coffee ice cream.
    Was it soft-serve
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    With the off days built into the NLDS schedule, whoever starts game 1 or 2 will be available to start game 5 on 4 or 5 days of rest.

    Keeping that in mind, we also know Fried can be a weapon out of the BP in games he isn’t starting.

    I would open with Fried in game 1, which makes him available from the BP in games 3 and 4.

    Soroka gets game 2 and 5.

    DK gets game 3, with Folty, Fried and Teheran ready.

    Folty, Fried and Teheran tag team game 4, none of them taking a PA.

    Soroka gets game 5.
    Love it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
    Was it soft-serve
    Is the pope italian
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Being a homer and looking ahead to the NLCS, we know the Dodgers are going to platoon heavily against the opposing SP.

    xwOBA values since the deadline...

    Keuchel vs RHH: .298
    Fried vs RHH: .322
    Folty vs LHH: .294
    Teheran vs LHH: .320
    Soroka vs LHH: .391

    If rest doesn't "fix" Soroka, he probably should not face a Dodger lineup full of LHH in the NLCS. It's probably OK to let DK face the RHH lineup twice, and Folty to face the LHH lineup twice, but Fried and Julio probably shouldn't face the LHH lineup more than once.

    The most effective deployment once again likely uses Fried early in the series as a SP backed up by the RHP in the BP and Soroka, and then have him come out of the BP to back up a RH SP like Julio or Soroka against a Dodger lineup stacked with LHH. Something like:

    Oct. 11 - Fried backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 12 - DK backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 13 OFF
    Oct. 14 - Folty backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 15 - Julio backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 16 - Soroka/BP game, DK again if elimination game
    Oct. 17 OFF
    Oct. 18 - DK or Fried/BP game if DK was used the 16th
    Oct. 19 - Fried/Folty/BP/Everyone on the roster

    If you flip Fried and DK that makes DK available to start on the 16th on regular rest, but it doesn't allow Fried to be used out of the BP until the 16th. That might be preferable.

    It's basically all hands on deck after Game 4 hoping to piggyback LHP and RHP against the platoon heavy Dodgers lineup. Ideally no SP bats in those games so PH opportunities are maximized.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Being a homer and looking ahead to the NLCS, we know the Dodgers are going to platoon heavily against the opposing SP.

    xwOBA values since the deadline...

    Keuchel vs RHH: .298
    Fried vs RHH: .322
    Folty vs LHH: .294
    Teheran vs LHH: .320
    Soroka vs LHH: .391

    If rest doesn't "fix" Soroka, he probably should not face a Dodger lineup full of LHH in the NLCS. It's probably OK to let DK face the RHH lineup twice, and Folty to face the LHH lineup twice, but Fried and Julio probably shouldn't face the LHH lineup more than once.

    The most effective deployment once again likely uses Fried early in the series as a SP backed up by the RHP in the BP and Soroka, and then have him come out of the BP to back up a RH SP like Julio or Soroka against a Dodger lineup stacked with LHH. Something like:

    Oct. 11 - Fried backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 12 - DK backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 13 OFF
    Oct. 14 - Folty backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 15 - Julio backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 16 - Soroka/BP game, DK again if elimination game
    Oct. 17 OFF
    Oct. 18 - DK or Fried/BP game if DK was used the 16th
    Oct. 19 - Fried/Folty/BP/Everyone on the roster

    If you flip Fried and DK that makes DK available to start on the 16th on regular rest, but it doesn't allow Fried to be used out of the BP until the 16th. That might be preferable.

    It's basically all hands on deck after Game 4 hoping to piggyback LHP and RHP against the platoon heavy Dodgers lineup. Ideally no SP bats in those games so PH opportunities are maximized.
    I think Folty and Fried by virtue of "stuff" and past experience will work better out of the pen than the other three starters. In some ways being consigned to pen duty might be more important than being a starter in the playoffs.

    Thinking about a Cardinals series I would go like this:

    Game 1 Soroka backed up by Fried then the big 4 in the pen
    Game 2 Keuchel backed up up by Folty then the big 4
    Game 3 Teheran backed up by everyone
    Game 4 Whichever of Folty/Fried is most rested backed up by everyone
    Game 5 Start whichever of Soroka/Keuchel pitched best in games 1 and 2

    I go with Soroka first because it would give him the extra day rest if he comes back in game 5. Keuchel would go on regular rest in a game 5. At this point in the season extra rest will probably help Soroka and Fried more than the others. Soroka's final regular season start if they keep on their regular schedule is game 2 in the KC series. I'd have him go 2 innings in that game and then come back on 7 days rest in game 1 of the divisional series. Fried's final regular season start is game 2 of the Mets series. Also just give him 1-2 innings. Keuchel is scheduled to pitch game 3 against the Mets. This would give him 4 days rest before game 2 of the divisional series. So keep his innings short against the Mets.

    A key will be getting the younger guys (Soroka and Fried) some rest while keeping them sharp.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think Folty and Fried by virtue of "stuff" and past experience will work better out of the pen than the other three starters. In some ways being consigned to pen duty might be more important than being a starter in the playoffs.

    Thinking about a Cardinals series I would go like this:

    Game 1 Soroka backed up by Fried then the big 4 in the pen
    Game 2 Keuchel backed up up by Folty then the big 4
    Game 3 Teheran backed up by everyone
    Game 4 Whichever of Folty/Fried is most rested backed up by everyone
    Game 5 Start whichever of Soroka/Keuchel pitched best in games 1 and 2

    I go with Soroka first because it would give him the extra day rest if he comes back in game 5. Keuchel would go on regular rest in a game 5. At this point in the season extra rest will probably help Soroka and Fried more than the others. Soroka's final regular season start if they keep on their regular schedule is game 2 in the KC series. I'd have him go 2 innings in that game and then come back on 7 days rest in game 1 of the divisional series. Fried's final regular season start is game 2 of the Mets series. Also just give him 1-2 innings. Keuchel is scheduled to pitch game 3 against the Mets. This would give him 4 days rest before game 2 of the divisional series. So keep his innings short against the Mets.

    A key will be getting the younger guys (Soroka and Fried) some rest while keeping them sharp.
    If the Cardinals don't platoon a lot (it doesn't appear they do), then it doesn't make sense to back up the SP with a pitcher of the opposite handedness. The benefit of bringing in Fried to face a bunch of LHH that were used to start against Julio doesn't exist vs the Cards like it does vs the Dodgers.

    Go with the best overall SPs vs the Cards. The only reason I want Fried to be available from the BP is because the Braves lack LHP.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If the Cardinals don't platoon a lot (it doesn't appear they do), then it doesn't make sense to back up the SP with a pitcher of the opposite handedness. The benefit of bringing in Fried to face a bunch of LHH that were used to start against Julio doesn't exist vs the Cards like it does vs the Dodgers.

    Go with the best overall SPs vs the Cards. The only reason I want Fried to be available from the BP is because the Braves lack LHP.
    Good point about lack of platooning by the Cards. They don't even seem to care about spreading out their few hitters who do better against righties. Fowler and Wong have been batting 1-2 and they are just about the only guys in the lineup who do better against righties. Carpenter does too but he's had an awful season and has been benched lately.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Good point about lack of platooning by the Cards. They don't even seem to care about spreading out their few hitters who do better against righties. Fowler and Wong have been batting 1-2 and they are just about the only guys in the lineup who do better against righties. Carpenter does too but he's had an awful season and has been benched lately.
    Batting Fowler and Wong 1/2 makes them a perfect candidate for a LHP to be used as an opener on games not started by Fried or DK.

    I would actually be in favor of Newk starting 2-3 games in the NLDS and only facing 2-3 batters.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Being a homer and looking ahead to the NLCS, we know the Dodgers are going to platoon heavily against the opposing SP.

    xwOBA values since the deadline...

    Keuchel vs RHH: .298
    Fried vs RHH: .322
    Folty vs LHH: .294
    Teheran vs LHH: .320
    Soroka vs LHH: .391

    If rest doesn't "fix" Soroka, he probably should not face a Dodger lineup full of LHH in the NLCS. It's probably OK to let DK face the RHH lineup twice, and Folty to face the LHH lineup twice, but Fried and Julio probably shouldn't face the LHH lineup more than once.

    The most effective deployment once again likely uses Fried early in the series as a SP backed up by the RHP in the BP and Soroka, and then have him come out of the BP to back up a RH SP like Julio or Soroka against a Dodger lineup stacked with LHH. Something like:

    Oct. 11 - Fried backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 12 - DK backed up by Soroka and the RHP in the BP
    Oct. 13 OFF
    Oct. 14 - Folty backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 15 - Julio backed up by Fried and Newk
    Oct. 16 - Soroka/BP game, DK again if elimination game
    Oct. 17 OFF
    Oct. 18 - DK or Fried/BP game if DK was used the 16th
    Oct. 19 - Fried/Folty/BP/Everyone on the roster

    If you flip Fried and DK that makes DK available to start on the 16th on regular rest, but it doesn't allow Fried to be used out of the BP until the 16th. That might be preferable.

    It's basically all hands on deck after Game 4 hoping to piggyback LHP and RHP against the platoon heavy Dodgers lineup. Ideally no SP bats in those games so PH opportunities are maximized.
    “Looking ahead to the NLCS” lmfao

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    I don't want AA/Snit to read Enscheff's idea to start Fried game1. I'm actually leaning towards not wanting to start him at all unless we are already up and then it's somewhat to get him some playoff experience. But I do love the idea of Newcomb or Jackson ,etc opening the game. Hopefully Snit reads that and we test it a few games pre playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eyeman View Post
    I don't want AA/Snit to read Enscheff's idea to start Fried game1. I'm actually leaning towards not wanting to start him at all unless we are already up and then it's somewhat to get him some playoff experience. But I do love the idea of Newcomb or Jackson ,etc opening the game. Hopefully Snit reads that and we test it a few games pre playoffs.
    It only makes sense to use a LHP opener vs the Cards, but I agree 100% of the time that it’s something the team needs to practice a few times before the playoffs begin. That’s not the type of tactic you want to spring on guys for the first time in the most stressful games of the season.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/25/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Cards have 1 LHP. Do we need more than 1 righty bench bat against them?
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Before last night, Keuchel had given the team six consecutive quality starts and four straight starts without giving up a home run.

    He's always been vulnerable to the long ball in his career. And being a groundball pitcher, there will be games when the BABIP luck works against him.

    Still, he's been very good down the stretch. In his last 5 starts, 9 BB and 23 K in 30 IP. I'd pencil him in as my game 2 starter against the Cards.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Before last night, Keuchel had given the team six consecutive quality starts and four straight starts without giving up a home run.

    He's always been vulnerable to the long ball in his career. And being a groundball pitcher, there will be games when the BABIP luck works against him.

    Still, he's been very good down the stretch. In his last 5 starts, 9 BB and 23 K in 30 IP. I'd pencil him in as my game 2 starter against the Cards.
    I would start him in the wild card game personally
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I would start him in the wild card game personally
    he doesn't match up well against DeGrom
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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