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Thread: Starting Pitching

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    Starting Pitching

    I'll start by looking at our starting pitchers' results in the second half:

    Pitcher A: 8.7 K rate, 3.3 BB rate, 4.25 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, .306 BABIP against, 25.0 HR/FB

    Pitcher B: 8.6 K rate, 3.9 BB rate, 4.48 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, .256 BABIP against, 11.4 HR/FB

    Pitcher C: 8.6 K rate, 3.2 BB rate, 3.99 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, .278 BABIP against, 12.5 HR/FB

    Pitcher D: 10.8 K rate, 2.3 BB rate, 3.53 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, .317 BABIP against, 21.2 HR/FB

    Pitcher E: 6.9 K rate, 2.0 BB rate, 4.02 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, .294 BABIP against, 15.3 HR/FB

    I include the BABIP and HR/FB numbers as indicators of whether the pitcher has been getting lucky or unlucky. We have all been watching these guys and it is perfectly ok to go with what our eyes tell us to some extent. But we should also be aware of the ways a particular pitcher might be getting lucky or unlucky.

    In terms of picking who pitches in what role in the post-season a few observations:

    1) Once the regular season ends, I would look at some shorter data series on each pitcher as well. Last 5 starts makes a certain amount of sense.

    2) Obviously you want to look at whether the opposing team is stronger against left handed or right handed pitching.

    3) In a five game series the choice of the game 1 starter matters more than in a seven game series since the game 1 starter is the one likely to come back in game 5 if necessary.

    4) The data above indicates that Pitcher D is our man for game 1 starter...unless...he falters down the stretch...or there is something in the platoon splits data that works against him against a particular team.

    5) I have not revealed the names because I think it makes sense to try and look at this dispassionately. We all have our favorites. I'm sure we can all figure out who the individuals are. But it really is better to look at them as Pitcher A, etc., than a guy we know.

    6) It appears that Pitchers B and C have been a bit more lucky than the other 3 in the second half, and also they are the logical candidates to leave out of the rotation. The decision on which one to leave out of the post-season rotation should among other things be informed by which one might work better in the pen if we decide to keep them on the roster.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-13-2019 at 08:50 AM.
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    Freaking nerds taking over all of baseball. Way to suck the fun out of the whole game, DORK
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    D
    E
    A
    C
    B

    Now tell us who is who.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozzie Swanson View Post
    D
    E
    A
    C
    B

    Now tell us who is who.
    Agree with the order. Too early for the great reveal. Gotta maintain suspense.
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    DAECB

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    I don't think not identifying the pitchers really helped much. We know who these guys are.


    xwoba 2nd/half

    A .309
    B .299
    C .305
    D .285
    E .327

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I don't think not identifying the pitchers really helped much. We know who these guys are.


    xwoba 2nd/half

    A .309
    B .299
    C .305
    D .285
    E .327
    Again D stands out as our best pitcher in the second half. Interesting xwOBA likes B and hates E. That scrambles things up a bit.
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    Very interesting analysis, thanks for writing this up. I managed to put together who is who based on K and BB rates. Should be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Would never have imagined the concensus first choice would be our game 1 starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Again D stands out as our best pitcher in the second half. Interesting xwOBA likes B and hates E. That scrambles things up a bit.

    E might be out of gas. His first half xwoba was .253.


    First Half Second Half

    A .332 .309
    B .314 .299
    C .369 .305
    D .333 .285
    E .253 .327


    I have a hard time with B.

    I usually don't have trouble admitting defeat, but I still don't want to believe in him no matter what the numbers say. xwOBA likes him, FIP does not. But FIP is always wrong with him. Dunno.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    E might be out of gas. His first half xwoba was .253.


    First Half Second Half

    A .332 .309
    B .314 .299
    C .369 .305
    D .333 .285
    E .253 .327


    I have a hard time with B.

    I usually don't have trouble admitting defeat, but I still don't want to believe in him no matter what the numbers say. xwOBA likes him, FIP does not. But FIP is always wrong with him. Dunno.
    E has to be watched carefully the next few starts. Hopefully he catches a second wind.

    I'm glad you brought up B's xwOBA numbers. He has a long track record of outperforming his peripherals. Can't be a fluke at this point.
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    I don't have a strong feeling about the postseason rotation.

    D has been the best in the second half, so I guess you have to roll with that.

    I'm pretty sure that A and C have been the best guys lately.

    B and E have been fading, and to some extend D has been too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
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    LMAOOOO. This is my favorite thing that I've seen today.
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    You people are weird and I'm just going to use names.

    Snitker being Snitker, he could very well place an out-sized importance on experience going into the LDS. So I could easily see him going Keuchel-Teheran in the first two games. Sorting out the Soroka-Fried-Foltynewicz trio...well, I imagine (and hope) AA's going to play a significant role in the planning there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    You people are weird and I'm just going to use names.

    Snitker being Snitker, he could very well place an out-sized importance on experience going into the LDS. So I could easily see him going Keuchel-Teheran in the first two games. Sorting out the Soroka-Fried-Foltynewicz trio...well, I imagine (and hope) AA's going to play a significant role in the planning there.
    DK I could see but I sure hope AA doesn’t let Teheran start any of the first 3 games. AA is gonna analyze whatever team we meet and go from there but I’m gonna guess Soroka, DK, and one of Fried/Folty will be the order.

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    I'm gonna guess without looking:

    I'm very confident B is JT and D is Folty. Folty's K Rate was over 11 in the 2nd half like 2 weeks ago and his wOBA I know is under .300 after his last start because I posted about it. JT has had the highest BB rate on the staff basically all year, so I'm confident in that one too.
    .
    A and C is a bit harder since they are so close.

    Imma say A is Fried

    I think C is probably DK

    E has got to be Soroka with the lower K rate but elite BB rate.
    Last edited by Carp; 09-13-2019 at 02:11 PM.

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    Well I got 2 right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Well I got 2 right.
    Interesting isn't it. Pitcher D has been very good and somewhat unlucky.

    I was looking at the Cardinals as a possible opponent in the divisional series. Their lineup skews righty. But their data do not reveal a strong split.

    wOBA against lefty pitching of .318, 10th in the NL. wOBA against righties of .312, 11th in the NL. Given that, I would not give much weight to whether a particular starting pitcher is a lefty or righty against the Cards.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-13-2019 at 02:26 PM.
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    No need to look up who’s who.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that Fried is the best SP in the organization now that he has added pitches to his arsenal.

    It’s also very clear that Soroka is excellent and needs to be rested leading up to the playoffs.

    Teheran has consistently outperformed his peripherals, and I think it has to do with his outstanding pickoff move. It eliminates several base runners per season, and probably affects the running game overall.

    We know what DK is, but Folty is still a mystery.

    Fried, DK and a rested Soroka are locks for the playoff rotation. Who starts between Folty and Julio is the only real question, and I’m going to assume Julio gets the nod.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    No need to look up who’s who.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that Fried is the best SP in the organization now that he has added pitches to his arsenal.

    It’s also very clear that Soroka is excellent and needs to be rested leading up to the playoffs.

    Teheran has consistently outperformed his peripherals, and I think it has to do with his outstanding pickoff move. It eliminates several base runners per season, and probably affects the running game overall.

    We know what DK is, but Folty is still a mystery.

    Fried, DK and a rested Soroka are locks for the playoff rotation. Who starts between Folty and Julio is the only real question, and I’m going to assume Julio gets the nod.
    I think that's how it will play out. I also think Fried should pitch game 1 with the potential to come back in game 5 of the divisional series.
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