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    Starting Pitching

    I'll start by looking at our starting pitchers' results in the second half:

    Pitcher A: 8.7 K rate, 3.3 BB rate, 4.25 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, .306 BABIP against, 25.0 HR/FB

    Pitcher B: 8.6 K rate, 3.9 BB rate, 4.48 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, .256 BABIP against, 11.4 HR/FB

    Pitcher C: 8.6 K rate, 3.2 BB rate, 3.99 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, .278 BABIP against, 12.5 HR/FB

    Pitcher D: 10.8 K rate, 2.3 BB rate, 3.53 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, .317 BABIP against, 21.2 HR/FB

    Pitcher E: 6.9 K rate, 2.0 BB rate, 4.02 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, .294 BABIP against, 15.3 HR/FB

    I include the BABIP and HR/FB numbers as indicators of whether the pitcher has been getting lucky or unlucky. We have all been watching these guys and it is perfectly ok to go with what our eyes tell us to some extent. But we should also be aware of the ways a particular pitcher might be getting lucky or unlucky.

    In terms of picking who pitches in what role in the post-season a few observations:

    1) Once the regular season ends, I would look at some shorter data series on each pitcher as well. Last 5 starts makes a certain amount of sense.

    2) Obviously you want to look at whether the opposing team is stronger against left handed or right handed pitching.

    3) In a five game series the choice of the game 1 starter matters more than in a seven game series since the game 1 starter is the one likely to come back in game 5 if necessary.

    4) The data above indicates that Pitcher D is our man for game 1 starter...unless...he falters down the stretch...or there is something in the platoon splits data that works against him against a particular team.

    5) I have not revealed the names because I think it makes sense to try and look at this dispassionately. We all have our favorites. I'm sure we can all figure out who the individuals are. But it really is better to look at them as Pitcher A, etc., than a guy we know.

    6) It appears that Pitchers B and C have been a bit more lucky than the other 3 in the second half, and also they are the logical candidates to leave out of the rotation. The decision on which one to leave out of the post-season rotation should among other things be informed by which one might work better in the pen if we decide to keep them on the roster.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-13-2019 at 08:50 AM.
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    Freaking nerds taking over all of baseball. Way to suck the fun out of the whole game, DORK
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    D
    E
    A
    C
    B

    Now tell us who is who.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozzie Swanson View Post
    D
    E
    A
    C
    B

    Now tell us who is who.
    Agree with the order. Too early for the great reveal. Gotta maintain suspense.
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    F
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    Forever Fredi


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    I don't think not identifying the pitchers really helped much. We know who these guys are.


    xwoba 2nd/half

    A .309
    B .299
    C .305
    D .285
    E .327

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    I'm gonna guess without looking:

    I'm very confident B is JT and D is Folty. Folty's K Rate was over 11 in the 2nd half like 2 weeks ago and his wOBA I know is under .300 after his last start because I posted about it. JT has had the highest BB rate on the staff basically all year, so I'm confident in that one too.
    .
    A and C is a bit harder since they are so close.

    Imma say A is Fried

    I think C is probably DK

    E has got to be Soroka with the lower K rate but elite BB rate.
    Last edited by Carp; 09-13-2019 at 02:11 PM.

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    Well I got 2 right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Well I got 2 right.
    Interesting isn't it. Pitcher D has been very good and somewhat unlucky.

    I was looking at the Cardinals as a possible opponent in the divisional series. Their lineup skews righty. But their data do not reveal a strong split.

    wOBA against lefty pitching of .318, 10th in the NL. wOBA against righties of .312, 11th in the NL. Given that, I would not give much weight to whether a particular starting pitcher is a lefty or righty against the Cards.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-13-2019 at 02:26 PM.
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    No need to look up who’s who.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that Fried is the best SP in the organization now that he has added pitches to his arsenal.

    It’s also very clear that Soroka is excellent and needs to be rested leading up to the playoffs.

    Teheran has consistently outperformed his peripherals, and I think it has to do with his outstanding pickoff move. It eliminates several base runners per season, and probably affects the running game overall.

    We know what DK is, but Folty is still a mystery.

    Fried, DK and a rested Soroka are locks for the playoff rotation. Who starts between Folty and Julio is the only real question, and I’m going to assume Julio gets the nod.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    No need to look up who’s who.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that Fried is the best SP in the organization now that he has added pitches to his arsenal.

    It’s also very clear that Soroka is excellent and needs to be rested leading up to the playoffs.

    Teheran has consistently outperformed his peripherals, and I think it has to do with his outstanding pickoff move. It eliminates several base runners per season, and probably affects the running game overall.

    We know what DK is, but Folty is still a mystery.

    Fried, DK and a rested Soroka are locks for the playoff rotation. Who starts between Folty and Julio is the only real question, and I’m going to assume Julio gets the nod.
    I think that's how it will play out. I also think Fried should pitch game 1 with the potential to come back in game 5 of the divisional series.
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    Folty doesn't look like 2018 Folty yet. But he has been very very encouraging lately.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    No need to look up who’s who.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that Fried is the best SP in the organization now that he has added pitches to his arsenal.

    It’s also very clear that Soroka is excellent and needs to be rested leading up to the playoffs.

    Teheran has consistently outperformed his peripherals, and I think it has to do with his outstanding pickoff move. It eliminates several base runners per season, and probably affects the running game overall.

    We know what DK is, but Folty is still a mystery.

    Fried, DK and a rested Soroka are locks for the playoff rotation. Who starts between Folty and Julio is the only real question, and I’m going to assume Julio gets the nod.
    nothing is clear except without statcast data you are nothing.

    also, this thread proves how wrong your guys usually are about everything.

    using predictive stats to determine the past performance of pitchers is not exactly seeing the whole picture is it?

    the computers spit out some preseason bull**** you all gladly stuck your names to and said the braves had no chance to win the division. because the computers are smarter than the mouth breathers! blah blah.

    ya'll understand stats that bizarrely eliminate key parts of the game, but it's beyond clear that many of you don't understand people at all.

    predicting the future is not the same as evaluating the present and past. yall really don't get this...

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    .748 OPS for Cardinals vs lefties and .733 OPS vs righties

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bj1133 View Post
    .748 OPS for Cardinals vs lefties and .733 OPS vs righties
    Yeah I noted earlier they are slightly better against lefties. It is a pretty small difference and doesnt really change how I would line up our rotation. Still think it should be Fried, Soroka, Keuchel, Teheran in that order.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Looking at the possible match up vs the Cardinals...they are 15-14 vs LHP this season while the Dodgers are 27-20 vs LHP....

    Assuming that we face the Cardinals in the NLDS, I think you go DK game 1, then game 2 you go with Freid to offset on the velocity.....then game 3 on the road, you go with Soroka.
    Keuchel and Fried have both been much better at home than on the road too, so I think this setup is ideal

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    I think there is still a lot to be played out int he last 3 weeks. If the trends continue I think Folty might end up being the game 1 starter. His potential to produce a dominant outing along with his track record from all of last year would make me feel most comfortable.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I think there is still a lot to be played out int he last 3 weeks. If the trends continue I think Folty might end up being the game 1 starter. His potential to produce a dominant outing along with his track record from all of last year would make me feel most comfortable.
    Folty has been better since coming back but he hasn't been dominant. He did have one very good start against the Metropolitans.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Folty has been better since coming back but he hasn't been dominant. He did have one very good start against the Metropolitans.
    Hasn't he posted the lowest xWOBA in the last month? I thought the number thrown around on these fine boards was sub 270
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