I'll start by looking at our starting pitchers' results in the second half:
Pitcher A: 8.7 K rate, 3.3 BB rate, 4.25 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, .306 BABIP against, 25.0 HR/FB
Pitcher B: 8.6 K rate, 3.9 BB rate, 4.48 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, .256 BABIP against, 11.4 HR/FB
Pitcher C: 8.6 K rate, 3.2 BB rate, 3.99 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, .278 BABIP against, 12.5 HR/FB
Pitcher D: 10.8 K rate, 2.3 BB rate, 3.53 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, .317 BABIP against, 21.2 HR/FB
Pitcher E: 6.9 K rate, 2.0 BB rate, 4.02 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, .294 BABIP against, 15.3 HR/FB
I include the BABIP and HR/FB numbers as indicators of whether the pitcher has been getting lucky or unlucky. We have all been watching these guys and it is perfectly ok to go with what our eyes tell us to some extent. But we should also be aware of the ways a particular pitcher might be getting lucky or unlucky.
In terms of picking who pitches in what role in the post-season a few observations:
1) Once the regular season ends, I would look at some shorter data series on each pitcher as well. Last 5 starts makes a certain amount of sense.
2) Obviously you want to look at whether the opposing team is stronger against left handed or right handed pitching.
3) In a five game series the choice of the game 1 starter matters more than in a seven game series since the game 1 starter is the one likely to come back in game 5 if necessary.
4) The data above indicates that Pitcher D is our man for game 1 starter...unless...he falters down the stretch...or there is something in the platoon splits data that works against him against a particular team.
5) I have not revealed the names because I think it makes sense to try and look at this dispassionately. We all have our favorites. I'm sure we can all figure out who the individuals are. But it really is better to look at them as Pitcher A, etc., than a guy we know.
6) It appears that Pitchers B and C have been a bit more lucky than the other 3 in the second half, and also they are the logical candidates to leave out of the rotation. The decision on which one to leave out of the post-season rotation should among other things be informed by which one might work better in the pen if we decide to keep them on the roster.
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