It's looking like the Cards are going to be the Braves opponent in the NLDS beginning October 3rd. They are much closer in true talent to the Braves than their actual records indicate. The Braves have been about 7-8 wins "lucky" this year based on higher order winning percentages, while the Cards have had pretty much neutral luck. If the Braves are a true talent 90-91 win team, the Cards are a true talent 89-90 win team. This should be a very evenly matched series.
Due to the parity of this series, the Braves must be gunning for every small advantage they can get.
The first step is to look for advantages against the Cards' offense. Luckily this is a team that starts the same RHH-heavy lineup everyday regardless of opposing pitcher (xwOBA vs RHP/LHP):
RF Fowler (S): .342/.320
2B Wong (L): .308/.295
1B Goldy (R): .347/.441
LF Ozuna (R): .377/.373
SS DeJong (R): .329/.310
C Molina (R): .306/.346
3B Edman (S): .312/.321
CF Bader (R): .327/.296
BN Martinez (R): .330/.414
BN Carpenter (L): .323/.344
Overall: .316/.330
First thing to note is the Cards insist on putting a terrible hitter in the 2 spot like dinosaurs, so that's nice for the Braves. Dealing with Wong should not be a major issue for planning purposes.
The issues that immediately jump off the page are that Goldy should never face a LHP in a high leverage situation, and Ozuna should probably be pitched around in almost all important situations.
Martinez looms on the bench as a LHP killer, so he can not be allowed to bat with the platoon advantage ever. He is the Cards trump card, so his presence must be accounted for in every pitching move the Braves make. They will undoubtedly be looking to get him a PA late in the game with men on base vs one of the Braves many RHP in the BP.
The Cards don't really present a good option for an opener or piggy backing opposite handed SPs, so the Braves should just throw their best SPs at them and be mindful of pulling them early (assuming DK, Soroka, Fried, Folty in some order, but I can see the argument for getting Teheran in there).
For example, it may not make sense to let DK or Fried face Goldy even a 2nd time in a high leverage situation. If Goldy comes up for his 2nd PA in a low leverage spot, they can probably allow DK/Fried to face him and then hopefully also get through Fowler/Wong a 3rd time if the pitch counts are low. If Molina comes up for his 2nd PA in a high leverage spot, the Braves probably need to go to a RHP out of the BP.
Folty and Soroka should be allowed to go through the order 2x, and should be replaced if Fowler comes up a 3rd time in a high leverage spot. This is where Blevins and/or Newk are going to earn their postseason roster spots...getting out Fowler in key situations and neutralizing Martinez' impact off the bench.
In all, the Braves should be able to platoon match up their way through this lineup, and then hope Goldy/Ozuna don't take over a game all by themselves. The Braves seem to have much more potent offensive weapons, so if they step up I like their chances in this series.
Reply With Quote