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Thread: Official Post Season Thread

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    Official Post Season Thread

    AL WC: A’s @ Rays
    NL WC: Brewers @ Nationals

    ALDS: A’s/ Rays @ Astros
    ALDS: Twins @ Yankees

    NLDS: Brewers/Nationals @ Dodgers
    NLDS: Cardinals @ Braves
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    ****.

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    Atlanta Braves

    97-65 | NL East champs | 3% World Series odds

    Odds by round

    NLDS: 58% vs. Cardinals

    NLCS: 36% vs. Dodgers, 49% vs. Nationals, 65% vs. Brewers

    World Series: 48% vs. Yankees, 32% vs. Astros. 54% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

    What they do better than everyone else: The Braves won 28 one-run games this season and went 13 games over .500 in such contests, easily the highest marks among all postseason clubs. Of course, this is a good news/bad news trait. Winning close games is certainly important during the playoffs, but the fact that the Braves were good at it during the regular season tells us little about whether they can keep excelling at this most volatile of categories. However, at least some of there good one-run record traces back to performing in the clutch: Atlanta led the NL in run differential in high-leverage situations. -- Doolittle

    One flaw that could doom them: The bullpen has been a roller coaster for the Braves for much of the season, even after they picked up Chris Martin, Shane Greene and Mark Melancon during the season. Things have looked better during September, when Atlanta has posted a 3.60 bullpen ERA with Melancon locking down the ninth-inning role. Greene has pitched well of late, and lefty Sean Newcomb seems to be an emerging weapon after being demoted from the rotation early in the season. However promising the trends are, there are still fewer swing-and-miss dominators relative to MLB's other playoff teams. It remains a concern. -- Doolittle

    Their Mr. Excitement: Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases. He plays with the flair and the enthusiasm you would expect from a 21-year-old. Really, call him exciting doesn't do Acuna justice. We need to invent a more descriptive adjective for him. -- Schoenfield

    Their best player you've never heard of: Only one left-handed batter has a bigger platoon split in his career than Matt Joyce -- it's Joc Pederson, if you're curious -- but he's always ready to mash a righty, even off the bench. This year, the Braves got Joyce the platoon advantage in 89% of his plate appearances and he rewarded them with the majors' seventh-best OBP, minimum 200 plate appearances. He started only eight games in the first half, but since mid-August he has been starting most days, giving the Braves a fifth good hitter. -- Miller

    Their season in a game: The Braves' lineup is impressively top-heavy: They have four of the top 35 hitters in baseball, by Baseball-Reference's WAR, while their fifth-best hitter ranks just 228th. The clustering of Acuña, Albies, Freeman and Donaldson is offensive Gummiberry juice at the top of the order, with those four averaging more than 110 runs and 100 RBIs apiece. When the Braves beat the Twins, 12-7, on Aug. 6, those four had 11 hits, scored 10 runs, drove in eight, collectively hit for the cycle and even stole two bases. Their slash line for the day: .579/.636/1.053. The rest of the lineup, even with a DH instead of the pitcher hitting, batted .208/.240/.208, but the Braves' top four were still enough to batter a playoff team. -- Miller

    Passan's Inside Intel: Scouts who have seen third baseman Josh Donaldson recently rave about his focus. "Never takes a pitch off," one said. His fielding, the scout said, is elite, and his bat this season has been awfully good, too: .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBIs and 100 walks. He figures to cash in big on a three-year deal this winter. ... What makes the Braves capable of beating anyone? "A healthy [Ronald] Acuna, [Ozzie] Albies, [Freddie] Freeman and Donaldson," one scout said. A groin injury sidelined Acuna for the final half-week of the season, and Freeman has fought painful bone spurs in his elbow. Both are expected to be ready for Game 1 on Thursday against the Cardinals.

    After months of mediocrity, Mike Foltynewicz's results in September started to resemble the All-Star version of himself from 2018. The stuff, however, is not the same. "He's still a power guy," said a scout who saw his most recent start Saturday, "but he's not going to blow you away like he did last year." He is lined up to start Game 2, with rookie Mike Soroka slated for Game 3, due to his road ERA coming in at less than half of his ERA at SunTrust Park (1.55 vs. 4.16). ... Blunt assessment on the Braves' arms from a scout: "I don't think their pitching is enough. I definitely think their bats are. If Folty deals, they might have a shot. But I don't love the back end of the bullpen." The combined September numbers for their three deadline bullpen acquisitions, closer Melancon and setup men Greene and Martin: 25 innings, 15 hits, three walks, 22 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA.
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    The Braves lineup is super top heavy for sure. But Neck and Joyce are nice complimentary hitters when facing righties. And that bodes well against the Cards. Here is my proposed lineup on Thursday with their WRC+ against righties.

    Acuna: 126
    Albies: 98
    Freeman: 154
    Donaldson: 135
    Neck: 112
    Joyce: 131
    Flowers: 111
    Swanson: 89

    That is a really good lineup

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    The Braves lineup is super top heavy for sure. But Neck and Joyce are nice complimentary hitters when facing righties. And that bodes well against the Cards. Here is my proposed lineup on Thursday with their WRC+ against righties.

    Acuna: 126
    Albies: 98
    Freeman: 154
    Donaldson: 135
    Neck: 112
    Joyce: 131
    Flowers: 111
    Swanson: 89

    That is a really good lineup
    The platoon splits break the Braves way in this series.

    In terms of key in-game managerial decisions they are fairly straightforward. We want JMGM in innings 6-9 in any sort of competitive game. To the extent we want to bring in a lefty to face a Cardinals hitter or two it should be against Wong, Fowler, Carpenter.

    When the Cards go to Miller and Webb, Snit will need to get a right handed hitter in there in any high leverage situation. If it is NOT a high leverage situation in the middle innings, I would let Joyce hit against them on the assumption his spot in the lineup will come up again against their right handed relievers later in the game.

    I would like a lefty bat to pinch hit against Gant and Brebbia in the middle innings if the pitcher's spot came up. Ortega is not a great option but he is the best we've got for that kind of situation.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-30-2019 at 10:32 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    What the hell. I have no idea what they said. And where is naked Miley. Bull**** man.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    LINK

    Atlanta Braves

    97-65 | NL East champs | 3% World Series odds

    Odds by round

    NLDS: 58% vs. Cardinals

    NLCS: 36% vs. Dodgers, 49% vs. Nationals, 65% vs. Brewers

    World Series: 48% vs. Yankees, 32% vs. Astros. 54% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays

    What they do better than everyone else: The Braves won 28 one-run games this season and went 13 games over .500 in such contests, easily the highest marks among all postseason clubs. Of course, this is a good news/bad news trait. Winning close games is certainly important during the playoffs, but the fact that the Braves were good at it during the regular season tells us little about whether they can keep excelling at this most volatile of categories. However, at least some of there good one-run record traces back to performing in the clutch: Atlanta led the NL in run differential in high-leverage situations. -- Doolittle

    One flaw that could doom them: The bullpen has been a roller coaster for the Braves for much of the season, even after they picked up Chris Martin, Shane Greene and Mark Melancon during the season. Things have looked better during September, when Atlanta has posted a 3.60 bullpen ERA with Melancon locking down the ninth-inning role. Greene has pitched well of late, and lefty Sean Newcomb seems to be an emerging weapon after being demoted from the rotation early in the season. However promising the trends are, there are still fewer swing-and-miss dominators relative to MLB's other playoff teams. It remains a concern. -- Doolittle

    Their Mr. Excitement: Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases. He plays with the flair and the enthusiasm you would expect from a 21-year-old. Really, call him exciting doesn't do Acuna justice. We need to invent a more descriptive adjective for him. -- Schoenfield

    Their best player you've never heard of: Only one left-handed batter has a bigger platoon split in his career than Matt Joyce -- it's Joc Pederson, if you're curious -- but he's always ready to mash a righty, even off the bench. This year, the Braves got Joyce the platoon advantage in 89% of his plate appearances and he rewarded them with the majors' seventh-best OBP, minimum 200 plate appearances. He started only eight games in the first half, but since mid-August he has been starting most days, giving the Braves a fifth good hitter. -- Miller

    Their season in a game: The Braves' lineup is impressively top-heavy: They have four of the top 35 hitters in baseball, by Baseball-Reference's WAR, while their fifth-best hitter ranks just 228th. The clustering of Acuña, Albies, Freeman and Donaldson is offensive Gummiberry juice at the top of the order, with those four averaging more than 110 runs and 100 RBIs apiece. When the Braves beat the Twins, 12-7, on Aug. 6, those four had 11 hits, scored 10 runs, drove in eight, collectively hit for the cycle and even stole two bases. Their slash line for the day: .579/.636/1.053. The rest of the lineup, even with a DH instead of the pitcher hitting, batted .208/.240/.208, but the Braves' top four were still enough to batter a playoff team. -- Miller

    Passan's Inside Intel: Scouts who have seen third baseman Josh Donaldson recently rave about his focus. "Never takes a pitch off," one said. His fielding, the scout said, is elite, and his bat this season has been awfully good, too: .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBIs and 100 walks. He figures to cash in big on a three-year deal this winter. ... What makes the Braves capable of beating anyone? "A healthy [Ronald] Acuna, [Ozzie] Albies, [Freddie] Freeman and Donaldson," one scout said. A groin injury sidelined Acuna for the final half-week of the season, and Freeman has fought painful bone spurs in his elbow. Both are expected to be ready for Game 1 on Thursday against the Cardinals.

    After months of mediocrity, Mike Foltynewicz's results in September started to resemble the All-Star version of himself from 2018. The stuff, however, is not the same. "He's still a power guy," said a scout who saw his most recent start Saturday, "but he's not going to blow you away like he did last year." He is lined up to start Game 2, with rookie Mike Soroka slated for Game 3, due to his road ERA coming in at less than half of his ERA at SunTrust Park (1.55 vs. 4.16). ... Blunt assessment on the Braves' arms from a scout: "I don't think their pitching is enough. I definitely think their bats are. If Folty deals, they might have a shot. But I don't love the back end of the bullpen." The combined September numbers for their three deadline bullpen acquisitions, closer Melancon and setup men Greene and Martin: 25 innings, 15 hits, three walks, 22 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA.
    Need to automatically deduct 30% from our chances of winning any playoff at the start. So our real chances are 28% vs. 72%.
    Forever Fredi


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    3%?

    Give me the over. Where do I place my bet?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    What the hell. I have no idea what they said. And where is naked Miley. Bull**** man.
    It has subtitles. Are you from Mississippi?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    3%?

    Give me the over. Where do I place my bet?
    Wanna make a charity bet that the Braves are out in the first round? I’ll go as high as $100.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    Wanna make a charity bet that the Braves are out in the first round? I’ll go as high as $100.
    Depends on the odds you give me

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    LINK

    Atlanta Braves

    97-65 | NL East champs | 3% World Series odds

    Odds by round

    NLDS: 58% vs. Cardinals

    NLCS: 36% vs. Dodgers, 49% vs. Nationals, 65% vs. Brewers

    World Series: 48% vs. Yankees, 32% vs. Astros. 54% vs. Twins, 59% vs. A's, 59% vs. Rays
    Something is very wrong with their calculations resulting in that 3% chance (not odds, they don't even have the terminology correct).

    The worst case scenario for the Braves is 58% x 36% x 32% if they have to go through the Cards, Dodgers and Astros. Multiplying those probabilities results in a 6.7% chance of winning the WS. The actual probability is higher since there is a chance they face teams along the way they have a better chance of beating.

    FG pegs the Braves at 7.8%, which matches my calculations.

    Whoever wrote this article can be discounted as a someone trying to analyze beyond the contents of their brain pan.

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    Vegas line (ML) for game 1:
    St. Louis +140
    Atlanta -175

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    It also doesn't make since that they give the Braves a 58% of beating the Cardinals, but they give the Cardinals a better chance of winning the World Series. Huh?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    It also doesn't make since that they give the Braves a 58% of beating the Cardinals, but they give the Cardinals a better chance of winning the World Series. Huh?
    Well...

    It's ESPN, a sports source designed for the absolute lowest common denominator of sports fans. They haven't put out intelligent content in decades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    It also doesn't make since that they give the Braves a 58% of beating the Cardinals, but they give the Cardinals a better chance of winning the World Series. Huh?
    Not only that. The Braves have a higher % to beat every other team over the Cards. ESPN just putting up crap like always.

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    Looks like they haven't released start times for the games yet. Wondering what start time they will give us Friday when all 4 series are playing. Looking at last year's schedule, I'm going to guess we get the 430 start time with the Astros having the early game. Dodgers late game, and Yanks evening game.

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    It was also announced that Sam Holbrook is the crew chief assigned to our series. Lol you can’t make this stuff up. MLB is trolling us.

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