Carp (12-10-2019)
I'm not sure the Cubs have as attractive an in-house solution as Acuña, but in theory sure.
I'm not making a fake trade up, I'm reacting to whoever suggested the Cubs might ask for Inciarte. I agree it creates a hole, but I think the hole is in the cOF and it's an Inciarte sized hole not a Josh Donaldson sized hole.
I think Inciarte's usefulness expires when Pache is ready and with that being the case, I don't mind getting off the Braves obligation to him before it might become apparent that he's lost a step or will never be consistently healthy again. Sometimes it is like that with his kind of player.
Considering I also consider really good offense as much more valuable than really good defense, it's an easy tradeoff for me.
Bumgarner's 2019 xwOBA by month:
March (25 PAs) .253
April (128 PAs) .323
May (152 PAs) .332
June (147 PAs) .344
July (117 PAs) .252
Aug (139 PAs) .257
Sept (133 PAs) .389
Total (841 PAs) .316
I'm sure folks will find trends and make statements like "he just wore down", or "he rounded back into form in July/Aug". Fact of the matter is Bumgarner showed himself to be a healthy #3/#4 who had a couple good months, and couple not so good months, all scattered around in a random manner...exactly how players tend to perform over a 162 game season.
There is nothing wrong with a team paying him to be a solid SP in the middle of their rotation for 3 years, maybe 4. That's the going rate for such pitchers. Bidding that gets into the $100M range after Wheeler "only" got $118M is absolutely absurd, and hopefully the Braves have nothing to do with it.
Seems like the early signings are not giving agents a whole lot of reason to move off big demands.
clvclv (12-10-2019)
Madison Bumgarner in the five years before his injuries in 2017-
2016
Home: .548 OPS, 2.14 ERA, .241 wOBA
Away: .691 OPS, 3.39 ERA, .296 wOBA
2015
Home: .546 OPS, 1.94 ERA, .241 wOBA
Away: .688 OPS, 4.15 ERA, .296 wOBA (weird that his wOBA matched in '15 and '16)
2014 (The one outlier year)
Home: .698 OPS, 4.03 ERA, .307 wOBA
Away: .619 OPS, 2.22 ERA, .273 wOBA
2013
Home: .588 OPS, 2.33 ERA, .260 wOBA
Away: .569 OPS, 3.12 ERA, .255 wOBA
2012
Home: .586 OPS, 2.38 ERA, .254 wOBA
Away: .751 OPS, 4.40 ERA, .320 wOBA
Its important to remember that Bumgarner was beginning his decline BEFORE he started having injury problems, with his xwOBA jumping from the ~.270 range to the ~.320 range where it is now. But even before then, Bumgarner was aided a good bit by the ballpark that he played in. Outside of weird year in 2014 and a relatively even year in 2013, he had significant splits. His decline only exacerbated these issues and he had to lean even heavier on his home ballpark to maintain respectable overall lines. So unless you think that ALL these things are true, I would go nowhere near Bumgarner:
1. His velocity and spin rate jumps from last season were real and sustainable.
2. His xwOBA jumps from 2015 to 2019 were exclusively or mostly caused by his injuries and he has experienced little to no actual decline.
3. His injuries were purely flukes and there is no reasonable cause for further concern, outside the reasonable amount of concern you'd have for a pitcher who has logged 1800 innings.
4. His healthy home/away splits in '12, '15, and '16 were the outliers and the "true" Bumgarner was his '13 and '14 seasons.
5. Being one full year removed from those injuries, he'll be back to those '13/'14 performance levels.
If even one of those statements isn't true, then any team signing him should be extremely concerned. If more than one are true, then Bumgarner is going to end up being the worst signing of the offseason at the numbers currently being thrown around. I'm sorry, I'm not willing to give a guy with that many ifs 20-25 million dollars a year and I certainly wouldn't commit 4+ years to him. The most I would even consider for a guy like Bumgarner would be something like 3/55, and I'd be sweating bullets if I did that.
Get off my lawn!
Get off my lawn!
Tapate50 (12-10-2019)
Kieboom is a pretty fantastic centerpiece in a deal for Bryant. Better than Riley I would think. He was a top 20 overall prospect this time last year, rated as 60 FV. For reference, Pache is a 60 FV prospect right now.
Pitching wise, yeah they don't have much the Cubbies would want that's super close to the majors. Sterling Sharpe could be make an impact in 2020, but he isn't a particularly great prospect as this point. Wil Crowe seems like a Mat Wisler type and not in a good way. Fedde is a former top 100 prospect but will be 27 next year and has yet to really establish himself. If Cubs demanded pitching in return the Nats would have to get a 3rd team involved. May be trade Eaton or Doolittle and some cash to a 3rd team for a couple ML ready pitching prospects going the Cubs way.
Last edited by Carp; 12-10-2019 at 03:34 PM.
looks like LAD and WAS are gonna fight for rendon and JD with loser getting the backup.
Forever Fredi