Official Offseason Thread

[Freshmaker]

Well there goes plan F for the OF

[Tapate50]

Well there goes plan F for the OF

Plan Z.

[Enscheff]

I think the Stanton deal between the Marlins and Yankees had some of these features.

You are correct. The Yanks owe Stanton something like 8/235, and the Marlins will owe them $30M if he doesn’t opt out after this season. It’s not looking good for him opting out.

The Stanton deal is a prime example of the risk these opt outs shift to the team, and why extra money would have to come to Atlanta to mitigate Arenado’s risk. If the Braves can afford $20M-$25M for JD over the next 3 years, getting $10M per year and Arenado from the Rox for as many years as he’s in Atlanta is almost the same thing....plus 4 more years of control over a much younger player.

There are ways to make Arenado work for the Braves. Something like Riley plus a non-Anderson arm for Arenado and $10M per year he stays in Atlanta.

[JohnAdcox]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think something clicked with Ozuna. I think he is peaking and will be very, very productive the next 3-4 years.

I believe at 29-32 he will end up being more productive than 33-37 JD years.

I don’t think we will sign him, I “do” think we will wish we had when things are said and done.

How so? Mind unpacking that a little? (I'm not trying to argue, I'm just interested in your thinking.)

[PawPawMaxwell]

Rendon's deal and a high AAV deal for Donaldson would seem to delete any reason for Colorado to send any money along when moving Arenado. With their needs for pitching in line with Atlanta's strength seems they are in position to dictate trade package.

[Super]

Rendon's deal and a high AAV deal for Donaldson would seem to delete any reason for Colorado to send any money along when moving Arenado. With their needs for pitching in line with Atlanta's strength seems they are in position to dictate trade package.

but also, not really.
Rendon just signed basically the same deal Arenado is signed to. and teams had to give up 0 prospects to get Rendon.
if teams were willing to pay Arenado that, they could've just signed Rendon. to give up a significant package AND take on all the money owed would be a far worse deal than Rendon.

[Carp]

Rendon's deal and a high AAV deal for Donaldson would seem to delete any reason for Colorado to send any money along when moving Arenado. With their needs for pitching in line with Atlanta's strength seems they are in position to dictate trade package.

That is not how it works.

If there were more than 1 team willing to give Rendon that much money, he would have signed for more money. The fact that he didn't tells you that every other team was not comfortable topping that offer. And lets remember that these teams didn't have to give up any prospects for the honor of paying Rendon a premium contract.

Combine that with the fact that only about 10 teams can even afford to absorb his contract (some of those teams aren't currently competitive) and this tells you Arenado doesn't have much trade value at his current contract. The more money they absorb, the better prospect package they can get in return.

The Yankees deal for Stanton is a good idea of what the Rox could expect to get for Arenado if they don't eat much money.

[clvclv]

That is not how it works.

If there were more than 1 team willing to give Rendon that much money, he would have signed for more money. The fact that he didn't tells you that every other team was not comfortable topping that offer. And lets remember that these teams didn't have to give up any prospects for the honor of paying Rendon a premium contract.

Combine that with the fact that only about 10 teams can even afford to absorb his contract (some of those teams aren't currently competitive) and this tells you Arenado doesn't have much trade value at his current contract. The more money they absorb, the better prospect package they can get in return.

The Yankees deal for Stanton is a good idea of what the Rox could expect to get for Arenado if they don't eat much money.

Assuming we could take on that type of commitment, the Stanton-level return might even be asking for too much - AA doesn't actually have a Castro-level bad contract he'd need to send back.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Arenado is not the same bad contract (considering Rendon and possible Donaldson) as say Blackmon or Desmond. Those 2 might require some money coming back but Arenado being arguably better than Rendon and better than Donaldson at this point makes his value at least commensurate with Rendon.

[Enscheff]

Arenado is not the same bad contract (considering Rendon and possible Donaldson) as say Blackmon or Desmond. Those 2 might require some money coming back but Arenado being arguably better than Rendon and better than Donaldson at this point makes his value at least commensurate with Rendon.

Rendon's value is, by definition, negative. Literally no other team wanted the contract he signed, so no other team would trade for him right now.

Arenado's production and contract are roughly equivalent to Rendon's (the opt out vs Rendon's extra guaranteed salary, and 1 year younger vs Rendon currently being a bit better). Therefore, no team is going to give up value for the rights to Arenado's contract.

The Rox probably have to eat money to get anything in return for Arenado.

[Southcack77]

Yes, but thatÂ’s not how contracts with opt outs are valued. The absolute best upside scenario is not the total value.

IÂ’m unsure why this is still unclear.

It's possible I'm undervaluing the probability that Arenado outperforms his contract in remaining years 3-7.

I get that if there is expected surplus from that period that the player option takes some value away from the team. I'm just not sure that's a tremendous amount of value.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Rendon's value is, by definition, negative. Literally no other team wanted the contract he signed, so no other team would trade for him right now.

Arenado's production and contract are roughly equivalent to Rendon's (the opt out vs Rendon's extra guaranteed salary, and 1 year younger vs Rendon currently being a bit better). Therefore, no team is going to give up value for the rights to Arenado's contract.

The Rox probably have to eat money to get anything in return for Arenado.

Any of our top 6 or 7 prospects going to CO maybe of enough value to require some money coming back but I doubt they are up for a trade such as this. All of our 10-20 prospects going to CO would probably not demand a return of money. JMO

[bravesfanforlife88]

Outside the box idea for our 5th starter job...keep in mind this would be after we address our cleanup hitter position.

But what about Felix Hernandez on a 1 year / $5m deal with incentives based on games started etc.

[seanyates]

No thanks.

[clvclv]

Outside the box idea for our 5th starter job...keep in mind this would be after we address our cleanup hitter position.

But what about Felix Hernandez on a 1 year / $5m deal with incentives based on games started etc.

Much better options out there to try that type of thing with - Homer Bailey, Aaron Sanchez, Taijuan Walker, Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, even Julio - Felix has pretty much shown he's done.

[Southcack77]

It's a lose lose for the team. If the player plays well they opt out and you potentially lose him bc you have to bid on his services vs all other teams. If he tanks or plays poorly he opts in and you are then stuck with his contract. I wish everyone would understand an opt out clause is only good for the player.

The opt out is a potential windfall for the player, but that doesn't mean it has to be particularly bad for the team.

What the team loses is the opportunity to pay Arenado 5/164 over his Age 31-35 seasons. He needs to average a little less than 4 wins a season over those five for the team to break even on that proposition.

That's certainly possible, but the the actual cost of the option is the chance that he exceeds that break even production less the risk that he doesn't. I'm not sure that's a whole lot of value.


Say Arenado gives you 100m of production for 70m and then opts out. So long as your prospect cost of acquisition isn't 30m, you've come out ahead of the deal if he opts out. And honestly, depending on the prospects, you'd probably rather have concentrated MLB value during contention than hypothetical prospect value later.

[Southcack77]

You are correct. The Yanks owe Stanton something like 8/235, and the Marlins will owe them $30M if he doesn’t opt out after this season. It’s not looking good for him opting out.

The Stanton deal is a prime example of the risk these opt outs shift to the team, and why extra money would have to come to Atlanta to mitigate Arenado’s risk. If the Braves can afford $20M-$25M for JD over the next 3 years, getting $10M per year and Arenado from the Rox for as many years as he’s in Atlanta is almost the same thing....plus 4 more years of control over a much younger player.

There are ways to make Arenado work for the Braves. Something like Riley plus a non-Anderson arm for Arenado and $10M per year he stays in Atlanta.

It's interesting that the risk you are describing and insuring against is the risk that he opts in, not the risk that he opts out.

I agree. The Braves would need to get money out of the Rockies. If the Braves can then pay less for him in prospects than they otherwise would have on the idea that he might opt out, all the better.

[Enscheff]

The opt out is a potential windfall for the player, but that doesn't mean it has to be particularly bad for the team.

What the team loses is the opportunity to pay Arenado 5/164 over his Age 31-35 seasons. He needs to average a little less than 4 wins a season over those five for the team to break even on that proposition.

That's certainly possible, but the the actual cost of the option is the chance that he exceeds that less the risk that he doesn't. I'm not sure that's a whole lot of value.

The value of opt clauses has already been detailed (at least roughly). At the time of signing, which is when the valuation matters, it is a clear bonus for the player. Whatever may or may not happen in the future is already baked into this evaluation, and looking at it as if the best case scenario is going to happen is not how risk analysis/pricing is done.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

The Arenado extension was worse than the Machado and Harper FA contracts the moment it was signed, and now the Rox have wasted the only cheap year of his deal.

An opt out literally removes all possibility of a long term value for the team, in exchange for limiting the total downside via a lower total guarantee.

[Enscheff]

WIll
12:46 Is it plausible (given that Donaldson signs elsewhere) that Bryant goes to the Braves in exchange for Max Fried and Ender Enciarte? Seems like this would be the type of haul the Cubs are looking for.

AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49 Don't think it's universal, but there's a compelling case that Fried could have more trade value than Bryant at some point in 2020.

5 years of Fried (1 minimum, 4 arb) of what looks like a mid-rotation guy (but sure, just one good year so far, TJ in the past)
vs.
2 years of Bryant (probably 2, but we'll see)

I think Bryant has the edge now, but if Fried puts up another strong half-season and Bryant gets down to 1.5 years of control, I could see this flipping.

Also, I don't see ATL cutting bait on one of the two SP (Soroka is the other) that emerged from their glut of young arms. Much more likely they trade two of the less proven ones than Fried.
12:51 Inciarte makes perfect sense for a Bryant trade, though. Probably matters what CHC is trying to do post-Bryant. If it's a power rebuild, I think Inciarte plus some upper level pitching from the Anderson/Wright/Touki/Wilson etc group could make sense
12:52 ATL's strength on the farm is upper minors depth, so this would eat into most of it but also get them a clear window and clear out the 40-man/AAA without blowing out the payroll with a mega deal

[Enscheff]

I'm not a fan of selling low on Inciarte, but using him plus a couple arms to get Bryant doesn't really qualify as selling low.

Another addition to the OF would obviously need to happen in this scenario.