Official Offseason Thread

[tululush]

They came out quite a bit last year. I know sheff brought it up a lot and when it comes to stats he’s usually pretty spot on. I know Chapman is probably a pipe dream but Beane is a strange dude and may over value guys that others wouldn’t. A Riley, Waters, Anderson package would be a very strong offer. Pache can’t be traded imo.

Agreed. Pache is off the table in any trade.

[Hudson2]

AFAIK it came from like, one FG chat months ago that said someone got a super low reading on his spin rates. Scheff can touch on it more, but his splits also indicate he's working with an arsenal confusing to MiLB hitters but not indicative of MLB success.

the reports/talks are FAR from conclusive and we likely need actual MLB data to draw any real conclusions. IIRC the spin rate data cited would suggest he basically has no breaking ball at all, which seems unlikely. FG has a 50/55 on his CB so...

Something has to be off with the data imo. Anderson has pretty good stuff and him not having an off speed pitch makes no sense to me. If that were the case he never should have advanced a level without learning one.

[Hudson2]

man, hindsight is 20/20, but if the Braves had offered JD 4/100 before free agency, he almost definitely accepts.

Agreed. Smith could have probably gotten more money had he waited too.

[tululush]

Thanks all for the quick response regarding Anderson’s spin rate.

[Hudson2]

Thanks all for the quick response regarding Anderson’s spin rate.

Lol now that I see JD has a 4 year offer from us I’m checking the board quick. This has to be done soon.

[thewupk]

I think the market is responding to the fact that its a foregone conclusion the DH is coming to the NL in a few years.

The new CBA will be done before the 2022 season. Likely it happens around that time.

[BeanieAntics]

I’m like Sheff. If Anderson does have real spin rate concerns then I’m selling high on him now. If Oakland would listen on Chapman I’d no doubt offer Anderson and Waters in the same deal for him.

Chapman is exactly the type of player that Oakland keeps to maintain a competitive roster - pre-arb. Its tough to see them trading him until at least 2022.

But if they were somehow willing to move him, it would take an absolute treasure trove of assets to get him. We're talking about a guy projected to produce almost 24 WAR over the next four years who will likely make around ~50 million in his three years of arbitration. When you start to look at the costs of what a Chapman trade might look like, it becomes a lot less inspiring.

[tululush]

Lol now that I see JD has a 4 year offer from us I’m checking the board quick. This has to be done soon.

If we’ve offered 4 years and this thing drags out another week I’m convinced he’s just looking for the largest offer.

[BeanieAntics]

They came out quite a bit last year. I know sheff brought it up a lot and when it comes to stats he’s usually pretty spot on. I know Chapman is probably a pipe dream but Beane is a strange dude and may over value guys that others wouldn’t. A Riley, Waters, Anderson package would be a very strong offer. Pache can’t be traded imo.

I'm not sure you can make a trade for Chapman without involving Pache. We're talking about well over 100 million in surplus value, maybe 150 million. That's a lot of ground to cover if you aren't including your one 60 FV prospect.

[BeanieAntics]

If we’ve offered 4 years and this thing drags out another week I’m convinced he’s just looking for the largest offer.

If there is a study done and it is proven that Josh Donaldson is a human that has a properly functioning brain, I'll be convinced that he's just looking for the best offer.

Lol, that's just a weird thing to need to be convinced of.

[tululush]

If there is a study done and it is proven that Josh Donaldson is a human that has a properly functioning brain, I'll be convinced that he's just looking for the best offer.

Lol, that's just a weird thing to need to be convinced of.

Except you hear about players taking a discount bc they either have played with the team for a while, or they genuinely love their teammates, coaches, and the city. Not weird at all. It may be rare, and happening less than it used to, but it’s certainly not weird or unheard of.

[msstate7]

Except you hear about players taking a discount bc they either have played with the team for a while, or they genuinely love their teammates, coaches, and the city. Not weird at all. It may be rare, and happening less than it used to, but it’s certainly not weird or unheard of.

I think a guy Donaldson's age is looking at money and chance to win championship... he'll take the best balance of the two

[Carp]

They came out quite a bit last year. I know sheff brought it up a lot and when it comes to stats he’s usually pretty spot on. I know Chapman is probably a pipe dream but Beane is a strange dude and may over value guys that others wouldn’t. A Riley, Waters, Anderson package would be a very strong offer. Pache can’t be traded imo.

Chapman is likely a pipe dream, but even if he weren't, you aren't getting him without giving up a package including Pache. He's a 6+ WAR 3b in his prime and with 4 years of control at extremely affordable rates. Conservatively, he has about 120 million in surplus value, but you could easily argue he has as much as 150 million. A package of Pache (~55m), Anderson (~35m), and Riley(~40m) may not even be enough. He's that valuable.

[Carp]

If we’ve offered 4 years and this thing drags out another week I’m convinced he’s just looking for the largest offer.

Well, yeah. 99% of people want to get paid the most that they can.

[Southcack77]

I'm not sure you can make a trade for Chapman without involving Pache. We're talking about well over 100 million in surplus value, maybe 150 million. That's a lot of ground to cover if you aren't including your one 60 FV prospect.

The ultimate question there is "should Pache be untouchable?" That's a critical team evaluation.

But, with no comment on whether the org should move Pache or not, if you are trading a 60 prospect, then getting back a 6 win player with four years of pre-FA control is certainly the type of return you should be looking for.

[Southcack77]

Chapman is likely a pipe dream, but even if he weren't, you aren't getting him without giving up a package including Pache. He's a 6+ WAR 3b in his prime and with 4 years of control at extremely affordable rates. Conservatively, he has about 120 million in surplus value, but you could easily argue he has as much as 150 million. A package of Pache (~55m), Anderson (~35m), and Riley(~40m) may not even be enough. He's that valuable.

I feel like Oakland and Tampa are both the types of teams that might see it differently if anyone would.

But they'd have to buy into the readiness of the guys they were getting.

[Hudson2]

I feel like Oakland and Tampa are both the types of teams that might see it differently if anyone would.

But they'd have to buy into the readiness of the guys they were getting.

That’s what I was thinking. Oakland is just different when evaluating players. And for Chapman I’d include Pache if that’s what they demanded but not Waters and Pache both. Chapman would be perfect to add to this roster and core.

[Enscheff]

as i stated below you, AFAIK literally all the spin rate talk is being derived from one comment in a FG chat about someone getting a super low reading one time. talked about a lot, but not backed up by much data at all. still a huge question, and far from factual.

It comes from here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...ype=3&team=atl

Those RPM values are gathered second hand from scouts Kiley and Eric talk to because nobody in the public sphere has access to MiLB statcast data. That 1700 value for Anderson’s breaking ball would be the worst of any MLB pitcher.

That RPM value could be erroneous, but if it is accurate it is physically impossible for that spin rate to produce a MLB breaking ball. Cross checking past values on those lists with actual MLB values when the prospect was promoted shows they are roughly accurate historically.

Further, his reverse splits suggest he is succeeding with an MLB quality change against hitters unaccustomed to seeing them, which won’t be the case at the MLB level.

[zbhargrove]

Dosh Jonaldson
9:21 What could possibly be keeping me or the Braves from making a deal. Why so stingy on the 4th year?
Mark P
9:21 The Braves apparently don't have much money left to spend. And, like many teams, could be wary about guaranteeing big money to Donaldson's age-37 season (notwithstanding how good as JD has been in his career)

This is the first mention I’ve heard about the Braves not having enough payroll space for JD. Have there been any other bits of data backing this up?

I'm skeptical this dude knows anything at all about what he's talking about. I've seen a few of his chat transcripts over the past couple months and he seems to shoot from the hip alot and most of his takes are really dumb. Doesn't really seem to follow the Braves much, so I doubt he knows what he's talking about.

[Enscheff]

I'm skeptical this dude knows anything at all about what he's talking about. I've seen a few of his chat transcripts over the past couple months and he seems to shoot from the hip alot and most of his takes are really dumb. Doesn't really seem to follow the Braves much, so I doubt he knows what he's talking about.

I tend to agree.