Tapate50 (01-27-2020)
He gave up 30 last year while playing in a park that heavily suppresses them (although he gave up 15 at home and 15 on the road). He's about to be playing in a launching pad. I'm not sure I would bet on him giving up 40, but he is going to be giving up a whole bunch of dingers all year.
zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
Three years bad for the home runs, two years for everything overall.
2019 road: 5.29 ERA, 1.67 HR/9
2018 road: 4.97 ERA, 1.56 HR/9
2017 road: 3.26 ERA, 1.58 HR/9
2016 road: 3.39 ERA, 1.09 HR/9
There's a trendline here that has been partly covered up by his home park. Now let's change that a comparison of his road numbers only vs. the average for NL SPs in those years.
2019: ERA 18.1% worse than lg avg, HR/9 17.9% worse
2018: ERA 19.5% worse than lg avg, HR/9 27.3% worse
2017: ERA 26.6% better than lg avg, HR/9 19.2% worse
2016: ERA 25.6 better than lg avg, HR/9 6.3% worse
Take a guy who is going to give up 20% moire homers than the average starter in a neutral environment, juice the hell out of the ball, and have him pitch half of his games in Phoenix, and you get 40 HRs allowed.
jpx7 (01-27-2020), zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
I think you are making too much of the splits.
Park factors don't account for 3 runs a game.
He will likely pitch better at home in Arizona than he does on the road.
jpx7 (01-28-2020), Snowman (01-27-2020), zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
I'll take the under on 40 homers.
I'll do under on 40 HR's too.
jpx7 (01-28-2020)
I think the ball will go back to being unjuiced this season and HR’s will be down across the board.
Way too many people noticed MLB juicing last season and I believe they make a change this season so there’s not as much media attention.
When are we renaming the list page. It is no longer 2019 and we didn’t take the Neck step.
Coppy
salmagundy (01-28-2020)
HR/FB is pretty random