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Thread: Official Offseason Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    Someone can probably find a better way to break this down, but...

    Riley in 201 1st half PAs: 116 wRC+
    Riley in 95 2nd half PAs: 22 wRC+
    May: 63 PAs, 186 wRC+
    Jun: 114 PAs, 96 wRC+
    Jul: 70 PAs, 13 wRC+
    Aug: 7 PAs, 180 wRC+
    Sep/Oct: 42 PAs, 12 wRC+

    Even the 22 seems to overstate how bad he was after the hot start, somehow.
    Max Fried's wRC+ was 40. Max Fried outhit Austin Riley for the last 4 months or so of the season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    but results are results.
    no, they ****ing aren't lol. process > results. Riley's initial results were extremely unsustainable. the way he was getting to them was driven purely by luck and unfamiliarity. once those things changed he was probably the worst hitter in the league. the same simply can't be said for Senzel. he wasn't great, but he also wasn't among the worst hitters in the league for a long stretch. how terrible Riley was is alarming. nothing about Senzel is alarming.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    no, they ****ing aren't lol. process > results. Riley's initial results were extremely unsustainable. the way he was getting to them was driven purely by luck and unfamiliarity. once those things changed he was probably the worst hitter in the league. the same simply can't be said for Senzel. he wasn't great, but he also wasn't among the worst hitters in the league for a long stretch. how terrible Riley was is alarming. nothing about Senzel is alarming.
    I ****ing understand his unsustainable start. Riley's history of struggling at a new level every time and his history of adjusting suggest his career arc may not be over yet even though you have declared it so. Nothing about Senzel is alarming? He's 24% K rate in the majors (while not near as bad as Riley's) is certainly alarming for a guy who's not really a power hitter. And his BB rate under 10% is pretty bad too... compared with Riley maybe nothing is alarming, but his rates are not "good"

    Lets wait and see if Riley can change up his rates closer to what he did in the minors (which were virtually identical to Senzel's).... I'm not using Riley's first 297 plate appearances in the MLB as his results when he typically struggles at a new level.
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 01-29-2020 at 09:50 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    Max Fried's wRC+ was 40. Max Fried outhit Austin Riley for the last 4 months or so of the season.
    Fried legit probably has more of an idea at the plate than Riley.
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    Riley is pretty clearly at risk of not being an MLB hitter with his glaring contact issues. I am not a fan of his...at all. Comparing Riley to Senzel is almost a completely useless exercise as they are nothing alike...in any way other than "3B" listed by their names.

    Senzel appears to be a guy who simply hits way too many grounders, and displayed below average power based on his exit velocities. He also appears to be able to at least fake it in CF, and has a surprising fast 70+ grade sprint speed of 29.4. He is literally as fast as Acuna...which is a fact I certainly wasn't aware.

    So to me, Senzel strikes me as a more well rounded player who needs to figure out how to not hit so many grounders, and then hope he finds a little more in-game power to really take off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Riley is pretty clearly at risk of not being an MLB hitter with his glaring contact issues. I am not a fan of his...at all. Comparing Riley to Senzel is almost a completely useless exercise as they are nothing alike...in any way other than "3B" listed by their names.

    Senzel appears to be a guy who simply hits way too many grounders, and displayed below average power based on his exit velocities. He also appears to be able to at least fake it in CF, and has a surprising fast 70+ grade sprint speed of 29.4. He is literally as fast as Acuna...which is a fact I certainly wasn't aware.

    So to me, Senzel strikes me as a more well rounded player who needs to figure out how to not hit so many grounders, and then hope he finds a little more in-game power to really take off.
    And I'd say that while right now the question for Senzel is whether or not he can be more than a super sub, the question for Riley is whether or not he can avoid being a below replacement level player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Senzel was roughly average at defense... but he was clearly below average on the offensive side. A 90 wRC+ is 10% below league average... that's bad. He was certainly below average overall.

    I feel like we're splitting hairs here. Either way, he was a good bit better than Riley overall with solid rate stats.

    Senzel is still pretty damn valuable. He was a 60 FV player just a year ago. I really don't think his value has changed much at all. He's lost a year of control but he also had mild success in the majors this year while playing a new position that also happens to be one of the hardest positions to play well. Either way, he isn't being moved unless the Reds are getting a major upgrade at a clear position of need. We don't currently have such a player that isn't already a core player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I ****ing understand his unsustainable start. Riley's history of struggling at a new level every time and his history of adjusting suggest his career arc may not be over yet even though you have declared it so. Nothing about Senzel is alarming? He's 24% K rate in the majors (while not near as bad as Riley's) is certainly alarming for a guy who's not really a power hitter. And his BB rate under 10% is pretty bad too... compared with Riley maybe nothing is alarming, but his rates are not "good"
    Riley didn't struggle at a new level. he was insanely, unbelievably lucky at a new level. he was the same hitter he was when he put up a 12 wRC+ later in the season, just wasn't as lucky and new to the league. that's why results aren't results. his process was bad the entire time. he was just lucky. i don't give him a ton of credit for that.
    i also haven't declared Riley's career arc over. once again, you're making things up. i've stated multiple times we don't know if he can fix his glaring issue. it's possible he can and does. but right now i'm viewing it as a major issue that's tough to overcome. he's young and smart and by all accounts works hard, so i wouldn't bet against him.
    no, 24.4% isn't alarming for a rookie. it's not good, but it's not alarming.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Riley is pretty clearly at risk of not being an MLB hitter with his glaring contact issues. I am not a fan of his...at all. Comparing Riley to Senzel is almost a completely useless exercise as they are nothing alike...in any way other than "3B" listed by their names.

    Senzel appears to be a guy who simply hits way too many grounders, and displayed below average power based on his exit velocities. He also appears to be able to at least fake it in CF, and has a surprising fast 70+ grade sprint speed of 29.4. He is literally as fast as Acuna...which is a fact I certainly wasn't aware.

    So to me, Senzel strikes me as a more well rounded player who needs to figure out how to not hit so many grounders, and then hope he finds a little more in-game power to really take off.
    You are correct. They are nothing alike and its almost impossible to compare them. My only point in mentioning Riley's wRC+ compared with Senzel's is that people like Super were gushing over his extreme value and others were making it out like we should break the bank and trade for him. My only point was, looking at the results offensively, Senzel was almost as bad as Riley his first year and that's not inspiring for a team looking for a definite upgrade. We are past that kind of gamble in our window. And with Senzel a ~24% K rate with a ground ball problem and lack of power is a big red flag IMO... independent or Riley. They both have problems and I don't really want either starting on my team unless they can prove they can overcome those warts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Riley didn't struggle at a new level. he was insanely, unbelievably lucky at a new level. he was the same hitter he was when he put up a 12 wRC+ later in the season, just wasn't as lucky and new to the league. that's why results aren't results. his process was bad the entire time. he was just lucky. i don't give him a ton of credit for that.
    i also haven't declared Riley's career arc over. once again, you're making things up. i've stated multiple times we don't know if he can fix his glaring issue. it's possible he can and does. but right now i'm viewing it as a major issue that's tough to overcome. he's young and smart and by all accounts works hard, so i wouldn't bet against him.
    no, 24.4% isn't alarming for a rookie. it's not good, but it's not alarming.
    Its alarming for a guy with a grounder problem who's not really a power hitter

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Riley didn't struggle at a new level. he was insanely, unbelievably lucky at a new level. he was the same hitter he was when he put up a 12 wRC+ later in the season, just wasn't as lucky and new to the league. that's why results aren't results. his process was bad the entire time. he was just lucky. i don't give him a ton of credit for that.
    i also haven't declared Riley's career arc over. once again, you're making things up. i've stated multiple times we don't know if he can fix his glaring issue. it's possible he can and does. but right now i'm viewing it as a major issue that's tough to overcome. he's young and smart and by all accounts works hard, so i wouldn't bet against him.
    no, 24.4% isn't alarming for a rookie. it's not good, but it's not alarming.
    I think the big issue here is we both were maybe trying to communicate and argue against something the other person wasn't necessarily saying. Leaving Riley out of it, I personally just don't see the extreme value in Senzel anymore looking at the whole picture. I wasn't impressed by his rookie effort as much as you and I think he does have a legit potential to be an injury risk... that's all. You are a bit on the other side and that's fine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    You are correct. They are nothing alike and its almost impossible to compare them. My only point in mentioning Riley's wRC+ compared with Senzel's is that people like Super were gushing over his extreme value and others were making it out like we should break the bank and trade for him. My only point was, looking at the results offensively, Senzel was almost as bad as Riley his first year and that's not inspiring for a team looking for a definite upgrade. We are past that kind of gamble in our window. And with Senzel a ~24% K rate with a ground ball problem and lack of power is a big red flag IMO... independent or Riley. They both have problems and I don't really want either starting on my team unless they can prove they can overcome those warts.
    lmao dude....ok.
    i said he was very valuable and the Reds wouldn't be moving him unless it was to upgrade the MLB team big time...if that's "gushing," well then ok. but i view it more as an objective fact.
    we've reviewed why using wRC+ is misleading in Riley's case. it doesn't tell us the hitter he truly was.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    You are correct. They are nothing alike and its almost impossible to compare them. My only point in mentioning Riley's wRC+ compared with Senzel's is that people like Super were gushing over his extreme value and others were making it out like we should break the bank and trade for him. My only point was, looking at the results offensively, Senzel was almost as bad as Riley his first year and that's not inspiring for a team looking for a definite upgrade. We are past that kind of gamble in our window. And with Senzel a ~24% K rate with a ground ball problem and lack of power is a big red flag IMO... independent or Riley. They both have problems and I don't really want either starting on my team unless they can prove they can overcome those warts.
    I'd certainly agree with not breaking the bank for Senzel, but I think you just got yourself way off that topic with the poor comparison. Right now, Senzel's floor is being Camargo, and Riley's floor is being stuck in an independent league or retired by age 28.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I'd certainly agree with not breaking the bank for Senzel, but I think you just got yourself way off that topic with the poor comparison. Right now, Senzel's floor is being Camargo, and Riley's floor is being stuck in an independent league or retired by age 28.
    The point wasn't to compare them, the point was to show that Senzel's rookie effort was pretty disappointing. I'm also not sure Camargo is Senzel's floor.

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    Changing the topic.... Bryant has officially lost his grievance...

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I think the big issue here is we both were maybe trying to communicate and argue against something the other person wasn't necessarily saying. Leaving Riley out of it, I personally just don't see the extreme value in Senzel anymore looking at the whole picture. I wasn't impressed by his rookie effort as much as you and I think he does have a legit potential to be an injury risk... that's all. You are a bit on the other side and that's fine.
    i wasn't even particularly impressed by his rookie season...at all, and i never stated that.
    i think he's (objectively) viewed as a valuable piece around the league. i think he's a good bit more valuable than Riley. i think pretty much every team has the same major concern with Riley which makes it tough to use him as a centerpiece for a big piece. i don't believe that same sentiment is there for Senzel.
    you're the one who took issue with me saying Senzel is a valuable piece despite that being the general consensus. *you* then compared him to Riley...not me.
    at any rate, i'm tired of this so we can just agree i was right and move on.
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    Can someone explain to me why Kris Bryant's statcast data doesn't really match up well with his actual production?

    I was shocked to see Bryant was only in the 23rd percentile for exit velocity and only in the 25th percentile for hard hit %

    Yet, he still put up a 135 wRC+ and .903 OPS with a BABIP completely in line with his career norm

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    The point wasn't to compare them, the point was to show that Senzel's rookie effort was pretty disappointing.
    Eh, it's a quibble on that point, but I'd say a 90 for a rookie playing center isn't really that disappointing. It's not setting the world on fire, but it's just "meh," not "oh my god he's a failure!" If Riley had been a consistent 86 without the utter collapse and massive flashing red warning signs, he'd have still been well below Senzel because of the lack of positional flexibility and inability to play a position up the middle, but it would have been a conversation, at least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Can someone explain to me why Kris Bryant's statcast data doesn't really match up well with his actual production?

    I was shocked to see Bryant was only in the 23rd percentile for exit velocity and only in the 25th percentile for hard hit %

    Yet, he still put up a 135 wRC+ and .903 OPS with a BABIP completely in line with his career norm
    Can someone remind me what6 the name of the site is that is hosting the Statcast data? I've got to bookmark that, since my memory is failing me so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i wasn't even particularly impressed by his rookie season...at all, and i never stated that.
    i think he's (objectively) viewed as a valuable piece around the league. i think he's a good bit more valuable than Riley. i think pretty much every team has the same major concern with Riley which makes it tough to use him as a centerpiece for a big piece. i don't believe that same sentiment is there for Senzel.
    you're the one who took issue with me saying Senzel is a valuable piece despite that being the general consensus. *you* then compared him to Riley...not me.
    at any rate, i'm tired of this so we can just agree i was right and move on.
    I think it went off the rails when you first said he was "damn good" then changed it to damn valuable... and maybe I'm just putting too much emphasis on the "damn"... I think he's valuable... just not damn valuable, lol

    Either way we can put it to bed... I'm just not agreeing either of us was right... I think our points were misunderstood :p

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