Thirded. If he stays healthy and in the rotation all year, I think 40 HRs is nearly a given. And that's just year one.Originally Posted by BeanieAntics
Thirded. If he stays healthy and in the rotation all year, I think 40 HRs is nearly a given. And that's just year one.
Well ****, if he’s going to hit 40 bombs ten we should have signed him for 3rd.
Coppy
Tapate50 (01-27-2020)
It was reported that if we got past STL, Freddie was out the rest of the postseason. And the Nats pitching would have completely shut us down. We should have beaten STL but the Nats would have beat us in 5.
Bumgarner deal could be bad but 40 HR's is just over 1 HR per start. Even with juiced balls, he isnt THAT bad.
He gave up 30 last year while playing in a park that heavily suppresses them (although he gave up 15 at home and 15 on the road). He's about to be playing in a launching pad. I'm not sure I would bet on him giving up 40, but he is going to be giving up a whole bunch of dingers all year.
zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
He had a 1.13 WHIP, 203 K's, and a .245 BAA last year, but the HR's are alarming.
Take all those numbers, then split them by his home/away numbers and see just how alarming it is. I mean, he was really, really, extra bad away from home last year.
Three years bad for the home runs, two years for everything overall.
2019 road: 5.29 ERA, 1.67 HR/9
2018 road: 4.97 ERA, 1.56 HR/9
2017 road: 3.26 ERA, 1.58 HR/9
2016 road: 3.39 ERA, 1.09 HR/9
There's a trendline here that has been partly covered up by his home park. Now let's change that a comparison of his road numbers only vs. the average for NL SPs in those years.
2019: ERA 18.1% worse than lg avg, HR/9 17.9% worse
2018: ERA 19.5% worse than lg avg, HR/9 27.3% worse
2017: ERA 26.6% better than lg avg, HR/9 19.2% worse
2016: ERA 25.6 better than lg avg, HR/9 6.3% worse
Take a guy who is going to give up 20% moire homers than the average starter in a neutral environment, juice the hell out of the ball, and have him pitch half of his games in Phoenix, and you get 40 HRs allowed.
jpx7 (01-27-2020), zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
I think you are making too much of the splits.
Park factors don't account for 3 runs a game.
He will likely pitch better at home in Arizona than he does on the road.
I usually don't do board bets, but I think I would take this one in a heartbeat lol.
jpx7 (01-28-2020), Snowman (01-27-2020), zbhargrove (01-28-2020)
I'll take the under on 40 homers.
I'll do under on 40 HR's too.
I'd take the over on 35 but the under on 40. I think it'll be somewhere in that ballpark.
But I'm very confident that he'll pitch poorly at home this year.
jpx7 (01-28-2020)
I think the ball will go back to being unjuiced this season and HR’s will be down across the board.
Way too many people noticed MLB juicing last season and I believe they make a change this season so there’s not as much media attention.
When are we renaming the list page. It is no longer 2019 and we didn’t take the Neck step.
Coppy
salmagundy (01-28-2020)
HR/FB is pretty random
Yeah, not sure how it can be argued that a WS was in our lap... Wash absolutely dismantled the Cards
Splits mean something when its a 2 season sample and there's an obvious trend... you can't just discount that he played his home games in the best pitching park in the majors and couldn't pitch outside of it. Especially when you look at the homerun rates, etc...
Is it random when he's consistently shown it to be a problem for 3 straight years?
Happens. Flip a coin and sometimes it will come up heads three straight times.
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