Official Offseason Thread

[zbhargrove]

Well yeah, they are a worse team in 2020. But they have the same shot to sign to a long term deal as they did 24 hours ago. Betts isn't signing an extension unless he gets everything he's asking for. I rather doubt the Dodgers are going to give him 400+ at 12 years right now.

As far as Verdugo, he's basically a 3 win player under control for 5 years. That's pretty damn valuable. I know next to nothing about the Twins guy other than he was Number 64 in Fangraphs top 100 this time a year ago and is a 50 FV pitcher. Seems may be a bit like Touki. But certainly, he has value as well.

The Sox did extremely well here. They got a guy who is already performing at a 3+ WAR level with 5 years of a control and a very talented lottery ticket in Brusdar Graterol. And they dumped half of Price's contract for 1 year of Betts. The Dodgers have a great farm that can withstand such a loss to their major league team, but it's an extremely short sighted move. I know they likely feel confident in re-signing him, but all it takes is one team to go crazy and give him a significantly higher offer than anyone else.

As I said in my previous post... I've softened quite a bit since the deal was first announced. I think I mainly just hate to see the Dodgers team now... its scary good IMO. Price had really returned to form until he had the cist issue last year and could be more of a difference maker than he's being given credit. Of course the injury risk will always be there with him from here on out.

[MadduxFanII]

How bad are the Dodgers going to get hammered by the luxury tax now?

Rosenthal indicated the Dodgers likely managed to stay under the threshold.

[Snowman]

Well yeah, they are a worse team in 2020. But they have the same shot to sign to a long term deal as they did 24 hours ago. Betts isn't signing an extension unless he gets everything he's asking for. I rather doubt the Dodgers are going to give him 400+ at 12 years right now.

As far as Verdugo, he's basically a 3 win player under control for 5 years. That's pretty damn valuable. I know next to nothing about the Twins guy other than he was Number 64 in Fangraphs top 100 this time a year ago and is a 50 FV pitcher. Seems may be a bit like Touki. But certainly, he has value as well.

The Sox did extremely well here. They got a guy who is already performing at a 3+ WAR level with 5 years of a control and a very talented lottery ticket in Brusdar Graterol. And they dumped half of Price's contract for 1 year of Betts. The Dodgers have a great farm that can withstand such a loss to their major league team, but it's an extremely short sighted move. I know they likely feel confident in re-signing him, but all it takes is one team to go crazy and give him a significantly higher offer than anyone else.

That former Twins pitcher can't stay healthy for five minutes at a time, which is many are assuming he ends up a reliever.

[Carp]

I think they did well.

I think the trade made sense for all three teams, honestly.

I don't like the deal for the Twins at all. I just don't think Maeda is that good.

[Snowman]

I don't like the deal for the Twins at all. I just don't think Maeda is that good.

I mean, 9.6 WAR in four years, with a 3.87 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 4.06 SIERA. That immediately makes him the Twins #3 starter, and has the added benefit of them not having to start Jhoulys Chacin.

[Carp]

As I said in my previous post... I've softened quite a bit since the deal was first announced. I think I mainly just hate to see the Dodgers team now... its scary good IMO. Price had really returned to form until he had the cist issue last year and could be more of a difference maker than he's being given credit. Of course the injury risk will always be there with him from here on out.

I think the David Price part of the trade is underrated from the Dodgers perspective. I actually like Price to remain a 2-3 WAR pitcher for the next couple of years. Price at 16 millon per for 3 years is completely reasonable. In fact, he were a FA right now with no pick attached, he'd likely get somewhere close to that. Maybe not 3 years guaranteed, but 2 years guaranteed with a 3rd year option for sure. He's still a valuable pitcher when healthy.

[Southcack77]

Well yeah, they are a worse team in 2020. But they have the same shot to sign to a long term deal as they did 24 hours ago. Betts isn't signing an extension unless he gets everything he's asking for. I rather doubt the Dodgers are going to give him 400+ at 12 years right now.

As far as Verdugo, he's basically a 3 win player under control for 5 years. That's pretty damn valuable. I know next to nothing about the Twins guy other than he was Number 64 in Fangraphs top 100 this time a year ago and is a 50 FV pitcher. Seems may be a bit like Touki. But certainly, he has value as well.

The Sox did extremely well here. They got a guy who is already performing at a 3+ WAR level with 5 years of a control and a very talented lottery ticket in Brusdar Graterol. And they dumped half of Price's contract for 1 year of Betts. The Dodgers have a great farm that can withstand such a loss to their major league team, but it's an extremely short sighted move. I know they likely feel confident in re-signing him, but all it takes is one team to go crazy and give him a significantly higher offer than anyone else.

It seems a little desperate by the Dodgers, but hard to really see where they've hurt themselves.

[striker42]

Rosenthal indicated the Dodgers likely managed to stay under the threshold.

If they did then they have some accountants who are bordering on the edge of magicians.

[Southcack77]

I mean, 9.6 WAR in four years, with a 3.87 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 4.06 SIERA. That immediately makes him the Twins #3 starter, and has the added benefit of them not having to start Jhoulys Chacin.

Yes, he makes them better. And his salary is reasonable for a small market team.

[Carp]

I mean, 9.6 WAR in four years, with a 3.87 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 4.06 SIERA. That immediately makes him the Twins #3 starter, and has the added benefit of them not having to start Jhoulys Chacin.

He's averaged about 135 innings the last 3 years. And he's 31. He's roughly a 3 WAR pitcher at best if he's completely healthy. There's a solid chance he pitches less than 150 innings again. The fact that he is now the Twins 3rd best pitcher is more a testament of bad their rotation is.

Maybe I'm overrating Graterol. I also didn't realize what Maeda's contract situation is. Certainly, he doesn't have to provide much value to be worth his contract, which is likely why Minny values him highly.

[zbhargrove]

I mean, 9.6 WAR in four years, with a 3.87 ERA, 3.76 FIP, and 4.06 SIERA. That immediately makes him the Twins #3 starter, and has the added benefit of them not having to start Jhoulys Chacin.

I mean with the exception of last year Jhoulys Chacin has been almost the exact same pitcher as Maeda... 2.3 fWAR in 2017 and 2.4 fWAR in 2018

And even Homer Bailey was better than Maeda last year with a 2.9 fWAR

Maeda is just not very good. I don't think it really does improve the team much.

[zbhargrove]

He's averaged about 135 innings the last 3 years. And he's 31. He's roughly a 3 WAR pitcher at best if he's completely healthy. There's a solid chance he pitches less than 150 innings again. The fact that he is now the Twins 3rd best pitcher is more a testament of bad their rotation is.

Maybe I'm overrating Graterol. I also didn't realize what Maeda's contract situation is. Certainly, he doesn't have to provide much value to be worth his contract, which is likely why Minny values him highly.

That would definitely be "at best" considering he's never eclipsed 3 fWAR and the closest he ever came was 2.9 back in 2016.... hasn't eclipsed 2.5 since then.

[Carp]

If they did then they have some accountants who are bordering on the edge of magicians.

Will be very close. Spotrac currently has them at 209 with the threshold being at 208.

[Carp]

That would definitely be "at best" considering he's never eclipsed 3 fWAR and the closest he ever came was 2.9 back in 2016.... hasn't eclipsed 2.5 since then.

I was meaning that as more if he stayed healthy and pitched near 200 innings (very unlikely). Which is to say, even in his best case scenario, he's likely only a 3 WAR pitcher. But yeah, it's much more likely he pitches ~150 innings and provides < 2.5 WAR.

[Nerfherders]

It's more incentive to try to be the 2nd seed and hope the WC team knocks them off.

[zbhargrove]

I was meaning that as more if he stayed healthy and pitched near 200 innings (very unlikely). Which is to say, even in his best case scenario, he's likely only a 3 WAR pitcher. But yeah, it's much more likely he pitches ~150 innings and provides < 2.5 WAR.

No I get you... we are on the same side here... just trying to clearly illustrate how mediocre Maeda is

[zbhargrove]

Stripling also going to the Angels... the Joc deal making a lot more sense now

[Snowman]

No I get you... we are on the same side here... just trying to clearly illustrate how mediocre Maeda is

A number three pitcher is by definition mediocre. No one is arguing he's a great pitcher. But their #3 prior to the deal was Homer Bailey, and Maeda's a mediocre pitcher on a bargain contract (seriously, he could put up 2 WAR total in the next four season and still be a little underpaid), and they only gave up a guy who misses two months of every season to the disabled list, with multiple trips per season.

[Snowman]

To put a number to how little Graterol manages to pitch, his IP totals by season:

2015: 11 (as a starter)
2016: 0
2017: 40 (as a starter)
2018: 102 (as a starter)
2019: 70 2/3 (as a starter until they made him a reliever after the year's second DL stint)

[zbhargrove]

A number three pitcher is by definition mediocre. No one is arguing he's a great pitcher. But their #3 prior to the deal was Homer Bailey, and Maeda's a mediocre pitcher on a bargain contract (seriously, he could put up 2 WAR total in the next four season and still be a little underpaid), and they only gave up a guy who misses two months of every season to the disabled list, with multiple trips per season.

Yeah but Bailey was better than Maeda last year