Official Offseason Thread

[PawPawMaxwell]

Folks suggesting he will waive his opt out without significant compensation are the same people who think an opt out is good for the team.

With all the noise going on, not only here, I feel a deal for Arenado is unlikely or at best less than 25%. However since this is a forum for discussion. Make the Bowman offer contingent on Colorado kicking in $35M, Arenado waiving his opt out, Braves extending his contract for 1 year at $35M.

[clvclv]

it's not literally impossible as he's technically able to do it. there's just legitimately a zero percent chance he would. AT WORST he can opt out in 2 years and move on from there if he dislikes the situation that much. there's far, far too much value and security in his deal to voluntarily give it up. it will never, ever happen.

all some people are doing here is laying out why it's unlikely he'll be traded period unless Colorado kicks in cash for each year he's on his new team. that's something that is actually possible and worth discussing. him waiving his opt-out will never be a thing, and i severely doubt any team would even approach him about doing so.

So "it's not literally impossible" and "there's a 0% chance he would" are somehow the same thing? I was under the impression that a 0% chance was an absolute. Wouldn't that actually make it impossible?

No one - at least most people - is arguing that it's not unlikely and that it wouldn't take a lot to get him to waive the opt out. The only point some are trying to make is that it's not out of the question. I even went so far as to explain that it would be easy for him to "renegotiate" now instead of two years from now by saying he wouldn't waive the no-trade clause unless someone kicked in substantial money even if the Rockies were able to somehow get the type of return they want.

No one is suggesting he's going to give up all that leverage for nothing - at least I'm not. This is the reason I've been completely against opt-outs since Stanton got his - the player then is in a position to hold the organization hostage from that day forward. There's absolutely no way including an opt-out will ever be good for a team.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Jon Heyman
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@JonHeyman
3h3 hours ago
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A decision in the Kris Bryant case is expected by the end of the month, possibly next week. Bryant has 2 years to go before free agency but he is grieving that, claiming it should be 1 year based on service time. Ruling will affect his trade value.

[Super]

So "it's not literally impossible" and "there's a 0% chance he would" are somehow the same thing? I was under the impression that a 0% chance was an absolute. Wouldn't that actually make it impossible?

um, "impossible" and "no chance he decides to do that just to play for a different team" are not exactly the same thing, no.
yes, he's technically able to. no, it will never, ever happen unless, as stated above, he's compensated heavily for it.

it's possible he agrees to void his contract and sign for $1M per year for the next 5 years. does that have a chance of happening tho? see the difference?

[bravesfanMatt]

Jon Heyman
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@JonHeyman
3h3 hours ago
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A decision in the Kris Bryant case is expected by the end of the month, possibly next week. Bryant has 2 years to go before free agency but he is grieving that, claiming it should be 1 year based on service time. Ruling will affect his trade value.

Maybe the Braves should offer more prospects to the cubs and ask KB to waive his grievances so he can play for the Braves.

[Super]

With all the noise going on, not only here, I feel a deal for Arenado is unlikely or at best less than 25%. However since this is a forum for discussion. Make the Bowman offer contingent on Colorado kicking in $35M, Arenado waiving his opt out, Braves extending his contract for 1 year at $35M.

in this scenario the Braves are still paying him $32.5M until 2027. the Braves cannot and will not be doing that. that's the entire point.
i swear y'all need to actually think things thru.

[bravesfanMatt]

With all the noise going on, not only here, I feel a deal for Arenado is unlikely or at best less than 25%. However since this is a forum for discussion. Make the Bowman offer contingent on Colorado kicking in $35M, Arenado waiving his opt out, Braves extending his contract for 1 year at $35M.

You moved the goal post. But now you are saying the Braves restructure his contract to add 1 year for 35 million which Col would pay. More plausible but still won’t ever happen.

[Super]

You moved the goal post. But now you are saying the Braves restructure his contract to add 1 year for 35 million which Col would pay. More plausible but still won’t ever happen.

is it more plausible tho? the Braves would still be on the hook for $32.5M until 2027. they could've tried to sign Rendon for that if they were cool with it. they're not.

[bravesfanMatt]

is it more plausible tho? the Braves would still be on the hook for $32.5M until 2027. they could've tried to sign Rendon for that if they were cool with it. they're not.

More plausible in that you are giving NA more incentive to waive the opt out. 35 million more to play till 36 is enticing. So plausible from NA perspective. From a Braves standpoint. No. I can’t see them paying that much for one player through his age 35/36 season.

[Jay212033]

Saw a proposal for Marte and Archer which would have us give up Inciarte, Wright, Wilson and Contreras if that all we had to give up I'd DEFINITELY be down for this deal.

[Super]

More plausible in that you are giving NA more incentive to waive the opt out. 35 million more to play till 36 is enticing. So plausible from NA perspective. From a Braves standpoint. No. I can’t see them paying that much for one player through his age 35/36 season.

right. it makes it slightly more likely NA waives his opt-out. makes it implausible from the Braves standpoint, because the biggest issue is paying him $32.5M until 2027.
the only scenario where this becomes possible is an extremely low prospect cost, or the Rockies offering $x/year for every year he's on his new team. that's it.

[MadduxFanII]

There is, theoretically, some combination of additional money and years we could offer that would induce Arenado to waive his opt-out. It's just not anything we would ever, under any circumstances, actually offer.

[clvclv]

There is, theoretically, some combination of additional money and years we could offer that would induce Arenado to waive his opt-out. It's just not anything we would ever, under any circumstances, actually offer.

Not ever, under any circumstances - there's just a 0% chance.

[Super]

There is, theoretically, some combination of additional money and years we could offer that would induce Arenado to waive his opt-out. It's just not anything we would ever, under any circumstances, actually offer.

if the Braves are paying Arenado to waive his opt-out, then the Rockies need to kick in even more money. the entire issue is the Braves don't want to be paying $32.5M/yr until 2027. upping that amount so Arenado waives his opt-out makes no sense at all unless the Rockies kick in a lot of money.

[Super]

Not ever, under any circumstances - there's just a 0% chance.

shockingly, you have a tough time understanding things.

[Southcack77]

MLB.com proposed 3 deals for Arenado, one from the Braves was Waters/Anderson/Ender/Cruz. That's way too much even without the opt out.

I'm not sure I've read the words surplus value from a Bowman column. Maybe not a surprise that he's the offer of that trade proposal. Also, who has compared Drew Waters to a young Chipper Jones? That's a new one.

[Super]

back to things that might actually happen, it feels like the Braves are going to go a cheap route at least temporarily and explore a trade option mid-season. it does seem like the Cubs basically need to trade Bryant at this point, tho, with how unhappy he is.

[BeanieAntics]

If they also pick up 40-50 million on the back end, that wouldn't be terrible

They would have to pick up more than that. We'd be sending two top 40 prospects for an essentially value-neutral asset. Waters and Anderson are worth more than 40-50 million dollars. Plus, we'd be adding ~25 million dollars to the 2020 payroll while creating yet another hole in the outfield. So at that point would the plan be to just roll out Markakis, Acuna, and Duvall? That doesn't sound that awesome. I'm also not a big fan of the notion that Ender has negative surplus value or is value neutral. I'm still confident in his ability to be a 3 win outfielder, which gives him substantial value.

[Carp]

Maybe the Braves should offer more prospects to the cubs and ask KB to waive his grievances so he can play for the Braves.

I chuckled.

[BeanieAntics]

You need to get your gun out then, What would be the big benefit for Arenado to waive out if he is playing for a contender at the time? More money? A big big gamble. More years?" Maybe but probably would reduce the AAV.

What would be the benefit in waiving the opt out? Even if Arenado were totally convinced of his commitment to whatever team he was on, it would still be immensely stupid to waive his opt out. If he goes out and has an 8 win season in 2021 at age 31, he would likely do much better than 5/164 on the open market. Anthony Rendon was just a year younger than Arenado would be at that point in time, and he got 245 million. If he waived his opt out, he could be leaving 50-80 million dollars on the table for precisely zero benefit.