Official Offseason Thread

[BedellBrave]

We now have the ace you guys have been clamoring for

Worth a shot.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I suggested we take a flier on him about a month ago. $1m deal is great

[Slippyjms]

How much more evidence do we need that the playoffs are an absolute crapshoot and that staying competitive long term is the name of the game?

Yeah I don’t buy the playoffs being a crapshoot either. Playoff success requires a different roster build than regular season success. In the regular season quality depth wins out. In the post season top heavy talent wins out.

[UNCBlue012]

There’s literally no risk in signing Hernandez. He either wins a spot or doesn’t, that’s it. Love it.

[Hudson2]

I like the Felix move. It could pay off huge or be nothing lost. Walker is another one I’d like to see a flyer on. I think our pitching as a whole should be very good this year.

[nsacpi]

It was a lot of fun last time we had a Hernandez on the pitching staff.

[chop2chip]

Yeah I don’t buy the playoffs being a crapshoot either. Playoff success requires a different roster build than regular season success. In the regular season quality depth wins out. In the post season top heavy talent wins out.

And yet you have the Royals in back to back WS, the Giants winning three World Series, the Cardinals, the Rangers, etc.

Obviously the better your players, the better your odds. The gist of that cliche is baseball by nature is random. In a simulation (n=100,000) where you insert say the Orioles into last year’s postseason, there would be an instance where they would have won the World Series.

[Heyward]

Felix deal is a low risk deal, perfectly fine with this. He's probably toast but for 1 mil, this is fine.

Get a cleanup hitter, Alex.

[UNCBlue012]

We finally found our ace!

[Heyward]

Dodgers had a loaded roster top to bottom and lost in 5 to Washington. There's no secret formula to playoff baseball.

[BeanieAntics]

Yeah I don’t buy the playoffs being a crapshoot either. Playoff success requires a different roster build than regular season success. In the regular season quality depth wins out. In the post season top heavy talent wins out.

Tell that to the '91-'05 Braves, who sported either the best or 2nd best roster in baseball for a big chunk of that time period and only won 1 championship.

Tell that to the Dodgers. They have accumulated 214 WAR through 2013-2019 and don't have a single WS ring to show for it. For context, the next closest team in that time frame is the Red Sox with 184 WAR and no other team has more than 170.

Tell that to the Astros, who the pundits said were the biggest WS favorite in years after they acquired Greinke last year.

Tell that to the Nationals, who at one point had a 1% chance of winning the World Series last year and still ended up winning it.

This is all anecdotal evidence that is pretty useless, objectively. But there is a ton of data that supports the idea that there is a tremendous amount of luck involved in playoff baseball. There is so much luck that mortgaging several years of competitiveness in order to "go all in" almost never makes any sense. That doesn't mean that it never makes sense to trade future value for present day value, but it has to be balanced with the reality that playoff baseball is all about luck and parity.

[clvclv]

The Hernandez deal doesn't come with any risk, but you have to wonder if it also came with a promise to let him go if he doesn't (surprisingly) win the 5th spot so he can try to catch on somewhere else.

It's a little hard to imagine that they want him taking up SP innings in Gwinnett, and even if Wright or Wilson wins the job and Newk goes back to the pen you've already got Wright/Wilson, Touki, Ynoa, Davidson, Weigel, and Anderson there plus Muller and De La Cruz at some point even if it's not at the very start of the season. Not really sure there's room for Felix or another depth veteran there with so many arms that are already on the 40-Man Roster.

[clvclv]

Tell that to the '91-'05 Braves, who sported either the best or 2nd best roster in baseball for a big chunk of that time period and only won 1 championship.

Tell that to the Dodgers. They have accumulated 214 WAR through 2013-2019 and don't have a single WS ring to show for it. For context, the next closest team in that time frame is the Red Sox with 184 WAR and no other team has more than 170.

Tell that to the Astros, who the pundits said were the biggest WS favorite in years after they acquired Greinke last year.

Tell that to the Nationals, who at one point had a 1% chance of winning the World Series last year and still ended up winning it.

This is all anecdotal evidence that is pretty useless, objectively. But there is a ton of data that supports the idea that there is a tremendous amount of luck involved in playoff baseball. There is so much luck that mortgaging several years of competitiveness in order to "go all in" almost never makes any sense. That doesn't mean that it never makes sense to trade future value for present day value, but it has to be balanced with the reality that playoff baseball is all about luck and parity.

Only reason the Astros didn't win last year is that other teams were using TVs to steal Greinke's signs, so that one's a fluke.

[Freshmaker]

I suggested we take a flier on him about a month ago. $1m deal is great

Yeah I remember that. Very low risk and the dollars are fine. Just have a very hard time believing he’ll do anything for us. He’s been awful the past few years - would much rather have kept Teheran. But! Maybe Anderson or Wright start the season strong in AAA and earn his spot

[Snowman]

We are in the midst of a pretty terrible streak of losing 9 straight series/WC games, but stuff like that just happens occasionally.

This is the only sentence there I disagree with. That nine straight ties the all time record, and it took the Cubs 109 years to do it.

[GovClintonTyree]

It is interesting to consider the case of Kyle Seager.

The past 3 seasons he's put up WAR of 3.5, 1.5, 2.9.

He is 32. I'd project him at 3 WAR in 2020 and 2 WAR in 2021.

He's making 19M in 2020 and 18M in 2021. There is a reasonable option for 2022.

Expected surplus value over the life of the contract is about 1 WAR, meaning he would not cost us any of our prospects who has sniffed a Top 100 list. Assuming Seattle is willing to sell early.

The in-house options at third project to generate about 1.0-1.5 WAR.

Seager in principle should give us a couple extra wins. If he is avaiable the price should be reasonable. And we would have avoided the long-term risk of signing an older player to a 4 year deal.

The question is whether Seattle is ready to deal and on what terms.

Just one last note. It is unrealistic to think acquiring Seager now will not affect AA's ability to make mid-season moves. A budget is a thing. Something that a lot of people seem to have lost sight of.

This is a good idea. Two points - first, last year he tore a thumb ligament that cost him 50 games and presumably 1-1.5 WAR and secondly, he remade his body and his swing prior to last year with encouraging results. He may age well and there may be a little more there than was anticipated by a cursory look. Wasn't long ago he was a 6 WAR 3B. .950 OPS against LH pitching in 19.

I think the Mariners will move him for some decent upside without getting into prime prospects. Theyd like to lose his contract.

[GovClintonTyree]

There’s literally no risk in signing Hernandez. He either wins a spot or doesn’t, that’s it. Love it.

He literally has nothing left and he's too rockheaded to make the changes he needs to make. Waste of resources.

[BeanieAntics]

This is the only sentence there I disagree with. That nine straight ties the all time record, and it took the Cubs 109 years to do it.

Yeah I wasn't saying that specific thing happens occasionally, just that weird things like that happen in a game with such high variance like baseball. It obviously takes some pretty horrific luck to go on a streak like that.

[CyYoung31]

This is the only sentence there I disagree with. That nine straight ties the all time record, and it took the Cubs 109 years to do it.

This. In every way imaginable, this. The Braves are the unluckiest franchise in postseason history by a long shot, and you can't convince me otherwise.

[BeanieAntics]

He literally has nothing left and he's too rockheaded to make the changes he needs to make. Waste of resources.

He only gets a million dollars if he's added to the 40 man roster. The front office obviously thinks that he may have something left in the tank if he makes a few adjustments. Maybe he is this year's Anibal Sanchez. If it doesn't work out, send him on his way. It probably won't amount to anything, but its the type of signing that can sometimes really round a team out.