Official Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

Depthcharts on Fangraphs has the Braves pen at 4.3 WAR in 2020. Smith and Martin are projected to be worth 1.8 of that.

Edit: And to further add to this. Obviously trades and the signing of the premo FA's will shuffle the order but the Braves, as is, are expected to produce 38.6 WAR which is 7th in baseball and 2nd in the NL to the Dodgers.

Spending $44M on 4.3 projected fWAR is pretty much exactly the going rates for FAs, not a mix of FAs and homegrown assets.

That's a barely above average unit, and it is going to cost roughly 1/3 of the entire opening day payroll.

We are about to see whether or not AA can make the Rockies 2018 model work for the Braves in 2020. Folks around here have been clamoring for the Braves to spend big in the BP for a while now. They got their wish. Hopefully they were right.

[Enscheff]

even if you go by WAR our pen last year generated 1 fWAR, whereas the top 5 pens generated 6-8 fWAR. That suggests that the pen improvement could be worth about 5 wins next year.

It's worth noting how those top BPs were built.

The Red Sox, Rays, Twins and A's made them from cheap and talented internal options.

The Yanks used their gigantic payroll to buy their BP.

The Braves used 1/3 of their payroll to hopefully build a 5 fWAR unit.

[Carp]

Depthcharts on Fangraphs has the Braves pen at 4.3 WAR in 2020. Smith and Martin are projected to be worth 1.8 of that.

Edit: And to further add to this. Obviously trades and the signing of the premo FA's will shuffle the order but the Braves, as is, are expected to produce 38.6 WAR which is 7th in baseball and 2nd in the NL to the Dodgers.

4.3 seems rather low considering Smith has 3.2 WAR over the last 2 seasons alone. Melancon, Jackson, Greene and Smith also had roughly 1 WAR each. I would expect all of Melancon, Smith, Martin, and Greene to have close to 1 WAR or better in the case of Smith barring injury. Jackson could too. Obviously we know Minty is capable of doing it as well.

I think, barring injury, 5-6 Wins seems completely reasonable given the pitchers we have.

[nsacpi]

It's worth noting how those top BPs were built.

The Red Sox, Rays, Twins and A's made them from cheap and talented internal options.

The Yanks used their gigantic payroll to buy their BP.

The Braves used 1/3 of their payroll to hopefully build a 5 fWAR unit.

It's really the Melancon salary that is not good value. On a value basis, the Smith and Martin signings are good. I'm wondering if AA might explore giving Melancon another year as a way of lowering the AAV.

[thewupk]

4.3 seems rather low considering Smith has 3.2 WAR over the last 2 seasons alone. Melancon, Jackson, Greene and Smith also had roughly 1 WAR each. I would expect all of Melancon, Smith, Martin, and Greene to have close to 1 WAR or better in the case of Smith barring injury. Jackson could too. Obviously we know Minty is capable of doing it as well.

I think, barring injury, 5-6 Wins seems completely reasonable given the pitchers we have.

It's possible. But I doubt we got career or top of the line years from everybody.

[Southcack77]

I'm willing to see how the rest of the offseason plays out before making judgment about the the wisdom of the roster construction.

I can't say that it would make a lot of sense to me to spend a ton of money in the bullpen at the expense of the rotation or lineup, but we're not there just yet.

[Carp]

There were a lot more pitching prospects the last 5 years than these...Allard, Gohara, Gant, Jenkins, ManBan, etc, etc...

I'm sure the next reply will be something along the lines of, "wellllll...those other guys weren't REALLY good prospects".

Then why acquire them rather than position prospects? Why did folks on this board list them out time and time again while drooling over how awesome they were? Am I the only one who remembers the countless posts where folks filled out the entire pitching staff of the future with internal guys, and then marveled at how great that staff would be? After all that drooling, folks are seriously going to suggest, "they weren't REALLY that good"?

If the Braves still had to spend $44M on the 2020 BP, what was the point in accumulating all those arms? Who failed? Why aren't they going to fail again?

I actually forgot about Gohard and Allard. I'll give you ManBan as well since he did make a top 100 list.
Gant and Jenkins never were considered top prospects, at least with us. Still, Gant has established himself as a decent reliever, albeit with another club.

[Enscheff]

4.3 seems rather low considering Smith has 3.2 WAR over the last 2 seasons alone. Melancon, Jackson, Greene and Smith also had roughly 1 WAR each. I would expect all of Melancon, Smith, Martin, and Greene to have close to 1 WAR or better in the case of Smith barring injury. Jackson could too. Obviously we know Minty is capable of doing it as well.

I think, barring injury, 5-6 Wins seems completely reasonable given the pitchers we have.

You failed to look at Melancon's production prior to last year. I'll save you the trouble...it was 0.3 and 0.4 fWAR.

Greene was at -0.1 in 63 IP in 2018.

Jackson's previous high was 0.3.

Martin is going into his age 34 season and quite likely just had his career year.

So no, projecting guys to replicate their best seasons all at the same time isn't how projection systems work.

[Enscheff]

I actually forgot about Gohard and Allard. I'll give you ManBan as well since he did make a top 100 list.
Gant and Jenkins never were considered top prospects, at least with us. Still, Gant has established himself as a decent reliever, albeit with another club.

Isn't that pretty much the whole point? Shouldn't Gant be contributing to the Braves BP?

I'm sure the list of drool-worthy pitching prospects is even larger than the names I just listed.

[nsacpi]

Wisler is another bust from the rebuild era. Blair too. They were both Top 100 prospects.

[The Chosen One]

Wisler is another bust from the rebuild era. Blair too. They were both Top 100 prospects.

I completely forgot about that travesty that was Aaron Blair.

Thanks for bringing those negative memories back in my head.

[Enscheff]

In 2015 Austin Riley was the Braves #20 prospect. Pitchers ranked above him:

Newcomb
Blair
Touki
Allard
Jenkins
ManBan
Fried
Sims
Ellis
Sanchez
Soroka
Bird

So yeah...not an impressive list.

[Carp]

Isn't that pretty much the whole point? Shouldn't Gant be contributing to the Braves BP?

I'm sure the list of drool-worthy pitching prospects is even larger than the names I just listed.

I mean Gant was used in a trade for Garcia, who eventually brought us Ynoa. It isn't like we just released Gant for nothing. Prospects are used to provide value to the big league through trades as well.

I get your point that you're criticising the emphasis on pitching, and that certainly has merit.

[Enscheff]

Remember the 2014 list with guys like:

Viz
Hursh
Cabrera
Fulenchek
Parsons
Grosser
Martin

Yeah, me neither.

I'll bet we can find many drool posts where someone listed them all out and marveled at how great that group of arms was.

SOOO DEEP!! SOOO TALENTED!!! SOOO MUCH PITCHING!!! WHAT AN ORGANIZATION!!! WOW!!

BRAVES WAY!!!!

All resulting in a 2020 BP filled almost completely with FAs and costing $44M.

[Jaw]

In 2015 Austin Riley was the Braves #20 prospect. Pitchers ranked above him:

Newcomb
Blair
Touki
Allard
Jenkins
ManBan
Fried
Sims
Ellis
Sanchez
Soroka
Bird

So yeah...not an impressive list.

That's a travesty.

[UNCBlue012]

You guys are a bunch of babies.

[Snowman]

I'm willing to see how the rest of the offseason plays out before making judgment about the the wisdom of the roster construction.

I can't say that it would make a lot of sense to me to spend a ton of money in the bullpen at the expense of the rotation or lineup, but we're not there just yet.

This. I'm tentatively assuming we've gotten a larger payroll bump than almost anyone believed possible. If not, then we do not have the right people making the decisions. Period. But I'm going to have to see us go into the season with Riley, Flowers, and Markakis in the everyday lineup and Fried and two whoevers in the rotation before I start screaming "fire everyone."

[NYCBrave]

Remember the 2014 list with guys like:

Viz
Hursh
Cabrera
Fulenchek
Parsons
Grosser
Martin

Yeah, me neither.

I'll bet we can find many drool posts where someone listed them all out and marveled at how great that group of arms was.

SOOO DEEP!! SOOO TALENTED!!! SOOO MUCH PITCHING!!! WHAT AN ORGANIZATION!!! WOW!!

BRAVES WAY!!!!

All resulting in a 2020 BP filled almost completely with FAs and costing $44M.

I don't think there is any doubting our development of pitchers over the past decade has been a huge failure. We also had some pretty poor drafts during this time.

I don't think our farm system was rates very highly until the past few years. Thats why it's most disappointing we are still failing at it. Wright simply cannot be a miss.

[nsacpi]

I don't think there is any doubting our development of pitchers over the past decade has been a huge failure. We also had some pretty poor drafts during this time.

I don't think our farm system was rates very highly until the past few years. Thats why it's most disappointing we are still failing at it. Wright simply cannot be a miss.

We were a bit more efficient before the rebuild. We generated in a relatively short period of time Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Julion and Wood. We were able to develop them without yuge expenditures in terms of high draft picks or talent traded away. During the rebuild we threw an enormous amount of resources at pitching. We did get Soroka and Fried. But overall the yield doesn't look very good.

[clvclv]

There were a lot more pitching prospects the last 5 years than these...Allard, Gohara, Gant, Jenkins, ManBan, etc, etc...

I'm sure the next reply will be something along the lines of, "wellllll...those other guys weren't REALLY good prospects".

Then why acquire them rather than position prospects? Why did folks on this board list them out time and time again while drooling over how awesome they were? Am I the only one who remembers the countless posts where folks filled out the entire pitching staff of the future with internal guys, and then marveled at how great that staff would be? After all that drooling, folks are seriously going to suggest, "they weren't REALLY that good"?

If the Braves still had to spend $44M on the 2020 BP, what was the point in accumulating all those arms? Who failed? Why aren't they going to fail again?

Why acquire ANYONE without your blessing? Can you run us a quick calculation to show everyone exactly how much money MLB franchises have already blown since October 1st by hiring people rather than coming to this message board and checking with you about your opinion first?

It's really unfortunate that your social skills lag so far behind your grasp of the numbers - quite a few of your posts are deserving of consideration from the people charged with actually making decisions - it's a shame that none of them could put up with your mouth and ego long enough to sit in the same room with you long enough for you to make those points

If you weren't such a *rick, everyone would simply read the majority of your posts and say "thanks - I'm glad you pointed that out".

You're aware that most people outgrow the name-calling and hissy-fit stage when they're old enough to be issued a drivers' license, right?