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Thread: Official Offseason Thread

  1. #3841
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    When looking at the projection models (those that do), what would be a "fair" 4 year offer for Donaldson? 20-20-20 and 15 with a $6 million buyout?
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    Quote Originally Posted by tululush View Post
    Good. Hopefully they move on and it’s just us and Washington. Maybe this will speed up his decision so we can all get on with our offseason.

    Article from Nationals beat writer stating they've all but moved on from Donaldson. Mind you, that statement is more based on their recent acquisitions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...castro-factor/

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    When looking at the projection models (those that do), what would be a "fair" 4 year offer for Donaldson? 20-20-20 and 15 with a $6 million buyout?
    If you go 4 guaranteed I would say 25, 25, 20, 18 as my final bid.
    Coppy

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    Thoughts on Keith Law's piece in which Riley is mentioned?

    "I had concerns about Austin Riley’s bat speed going back to his pro debut, and that didn’t change even as he hit his way up the minors … until he reached the majors last year, and the bat speed became a contributor to his struggles at the plate, with a .279 OBP and 36.4 percent strikeout rate in his rookie season. Considering the possible scenarios for his future development, and the probabilities of each, requires some assumptions about what his main obstacles are (e.g., his slider bat speed) and whether they can be addressed."

    Source: https://theathletic.com/1519736/2020...about-players/

    I've said for a while that I think we need to sell high on Riley. I was really hoping we'd do that last year in a deal for Realmuto. I know he tends to be a slow starter at each minor-league stop, but his problems last year were way worse than people tend to realize. If it's me, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a Byrant-type bat or arm like Clevinger (just a suggestion).

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    If you go 4 guaranteed I would say 25, 25, 20, 18 as my final bid.
    If that's close - and AA is in that ballpark - that's probably what's *issed Donaldson off and caused him to keep dragging this out in the hope that the Dodgers or Rangers jump back in.

    He probably feels like he's worth $25 million per (and arguably rightfully so). Just a guess, but everybody involved (every team that has been mentioned over the last 2 months) agrees with him if that's over 3 years. If the 4th year is what it takes to get him, I wonder if anybody's even offering more than $15 million for it unless it's based heavily on incentives (particularly games played).

    If he'd accept the 4th year as an option year, he'd probably already have gotten a deal that would've potentially maxed-out in that $100 million range.
    Last edited by clvclv; 01-09-2020 at 10:37 AM.
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    JD is starting to head down the path of pricing himself into a scenario where everybody has moved on. Seems he and his agent are in danger of overplaying their hand.

    I’ve been all for selling high on Riley for over a year now, so I would love see a KB deal centered around Riley plus an arm.

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    I'd probably go a a tiny bit higher than Matt on Donaldson, saying $75 for the first three years. That's expecting a WAR total of 8 1/3 - 9 3/8 for three seasons, which seems plausible. If you get a single 4 WAR season, he only needs to manage 4 1/2 or so in the other two combined. The fourth year gets awfully shaky for me though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Not sure why folks still mention the possibility of adding Donaldson PLUS another one of the big-money acquisitions. While it's fun to dream about, it just doesn't seem realistic.

    Payroll is already at an all-time high, and while The Battery doesn't show any signs of slowing down anytime in the near future they're not going to spend every dime of that on payroll. The idea behind the initial investment in the park and surrounding area was that investors (corporate ownership) would eventually be able to put increasing amounts of the profits into their own pockets as the debt gets paid down.

    Trading for Bryant really doesn't make any sense anyway - unless Donaldson doesn't return. Why on earth would you give up the pieces that would be necessary to get him and then play him out of position - especially when Waters and Pache will be ready before the end of 2020? If AA was in a position to blow that far past previous payroll budgets, the play would've been to bring Donaldson back and make a play for Strasburg instead of (or in addition to) Hamels.
    There is no guarantee that Pache and Waters will both be ready by the end of 2020. You call up Pache this year when he’s needed and do the same with Waters in 2021.

    Acuna
    Donaldson
    Freeman
    Bryant
    Albies
    Swanson
    d’Arnaud
    Inciarte

    Markakis
    Duvall
    Camargo
    Flowers
    Hechavarria

    This should be a championship level offense.

  10. #3849
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    The problem here is that AA is stuck. Donaldson's being unreasonable. Riley isn't ready (if he even eventually may be). The Cubs and Rockies simply aren't being realistic.

    This is the problem with the new numbers - if every GM places roughly the same value on every player, no one's particularly interested in going out on a limb or taking a chance.

    We're right back to where we were last winter - holding onto imperfect prospects (Riley/Wright/Wilson/Anderson) in the hopes that they'll somehow improve and take that next step because of their potential rather than trading them for that last MLB-level piece or two that could push you over the top (even if those players have imperfections as well).

    Nobody misunderstands the issues surrounding those decisions - and I don't blame the guys that have to make them for being gun-shy. It's just always going to be really boring in the future if all ownership intends to maximize each asset because no one's ever going to "go for it" since they're so job-scared. It's somewhat more reasonable from Liberty's perspective (although the success of The Battery is starting to offset the *hitty TV contract), but the Dodgers, Cubs, and Red Sox are starting to have to deal with fans' impatience. The Yankees bought themselves some time with the Cole signing, but their fans (in general) were beginning to become a bit frustrated as well.
    Last edited by clvclv; 01-09-2020 at 11:35 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    There is no guarantee that Pache and Waters will both be ready by the end of 2020. You call up Pache this year when he’s needed and do the same with Waters in 2021.

    Acuna
    Donaldson
    Freeman
    Bryant
    Albies
    Swanson
    d’Arnaud
    Inciarte

    Markakis
    Duvall
    Camargo
    Flowers
    Hechavarria

    This should be a championship level offense.
    Again, where's the money to do that? If they had that kind of money, Donaldson would've already been signed.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    Thoughts on Keith Law's piece in which Riley is mentioned?

    "I had concerns about Austin Riley’s bat speed going back to his pro debut, and that didn’t change even as he hit his way up the minors … until he reached the majors last year, and the bat speed became a contributor to his struggles at the plate, with a .279 OBP and 36.4 percent strikeout rate in his rookie season. Considering the possible scenarios for his future development, and the probabilities of each, requires some assumptions about what his main obstacles are (e.g., his slider bat speed) and whether they can be addressed."

    Source: https://theathletic.com/1519736/2020...about-players/

    I've said for a while that I think we need to sell high on Riley. I was really hoping we'd do that last year in a deal for Realmuto. I know he tends to be a slow starter at each minor-league stop, but his problems last year were way worse than people tend to realize. If it's me, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for a Byrant-type bat or arm like Clevinger (just a suggestion).
    was Riley's issue last year really bat speed? i feel like this is just another hill Law will die on because it's what he originally stated and won't move off it. but as enscheff has pointed out, it seems more his issue is he's guessing way too much. could that be because his bat is slow? idk, but i'm not sure Law is right here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    JD is starting to head down the path of pricing himself into a scenario where everybody has moved on. Seems he and his agent are in danger of overplaying their hand.

    I’ve been all for selling high on Riley for over a year now, so I would love see a KB deal centered around Riley plus an arm.
    Definitely admit you have been on the sell high train with Riley and I definitely agree. We should maximize his value ASAP. If the Braves could bring in a Kris Bryant moving him and an arm definitely do it and move on from this Donaldson drama. Even if they resign Donaldson I'd still look at dealing him for a SP or OF that reasonably priced

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    was Riley's issue last year really bat speed? i feel like this is just another hill Law will die on because it's what he originally stated and won't move off it. but as enscheff has pointed out, it seems more his issue is he's guessing way too much. could that be because his bat is slow? idk, but i'm not sure Law is right here.
    Agreed. I remember when he first came up and was on fire, his exit velocity was really good (95ish, I think?) and then it dropped like rock when the hot streak was over. That to me doesn't speak to bat speed issues, it speaks to quality of contact. And his poor contact skills were really obvious to all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    There is no guarantee that Pache and Waters will both be ready by the end of 2020. You call up Pache this year when he’s needed and do the same with Waters in 2021.

    Acuna
    Donaldson
    Freeman
    Bryant
    Albies
    Swanson
    d’Arnaud
    Inciarte

    Markakis
    Duvall
    Camargo
    Flowers
    Hechavarria

    This should be a championship level offense.
    When clv is able to determine this lineup is not affordable, it should be blatantly obvious to everyone.

    That's a $170M-$175M opening day payroll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    was Riley's issue last year really bat speed? i feel like this is just another hill Law will die on because it's what he originally stated and won't move off it. but as enscheff has pointed out, it seems more his issue is he's guessing way too much. could that be because his bat is slow? idk, but i'm not sure Law is right here.
    Speed, as in the velocity of the bat at the point of contact? No, definitely not. Generating above average MLB exit velocities requires the bat to be traveling at MLB speeds. That is simple physics.

    Speed, as in a short amount of time to whip the bat through the zone? Absolutely possible.

    Speed, as in the amount of time it takes Riley to identify a pitch, decide to swing, and then fire his muscles to swing. Also definitely possible.

    There is a reason Riley showed all the signs of being a pure guess hitter, even when he was going well. If it's a matter if just needing exposure to MLB breaking balls, his future is bright. If it's a physical inability to process pitches, or a lack of fast twitch muscles that cause him to guess, then he will probably go the way of Junior Lake.

    I don't know how to determine that answer with the data publicly available.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    There is no guarantee that Pache and Waters will both be ready by the end of 2020. You call up Pache this year when he’s needed and do the same with Waters in 2021.

    Acuna
    Donaldson
    Freeman
    Bryant
    Albies
    Swanson
    d’Arnaud
    Inciarte

    Markakis
    Duvall
    Camargo
    Flowers
    Hechavarria

    This should be a championship level offense.
    Actually here's a better question...

    If there's enough money available to sign Donaldson and trade for Bryant, why on earth wouldn't you simply sign Donaldson and Castellanos and keep all the prospects?
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I'd probably go a a tiny bit higher than Matt on Donaldson, saying $75 for the first three years. That's expecting a WAR total of 8 1/3 - 9 3/8 for three seasons, which seems plausible. If you get a single 4 WAR season, he only needs to manage 4 1/2 or so in the other two combined. The fourth year gets awfully shaky for me though.
    Given the Braves are in a competitive window, I think Donaldson needs to be a consistent contributor to maximize the number of postseasons. In an extreme example, I am not sure the Braves would be happy with one 10 WAR season and three 1 WAR seasons even though technically JD would justify a 4 yr / 104M contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Given the Braves are in a competitive window, I think Donaldson needs to be a consistent contributor to maximize the number of postseasons. In an extreme example, I am not sure the Braves would be happy with one 10 WAR season and three 1 WAR seasons even though technically JD would justify a 4 yr / 104M contract.
    Seasons of 4,3,3,2 WAR would be worth $96M under nsacpi's $8Mx rule of thumb. Given that (excluding 2018 injury season) JD has averaged 7 bWAR six of the last seven seasons, it seems a reasonable expectation that he would earn his contract, even allowing for significant dropoff for aging.

    I'd do something like $25/25/25/20M and feel pretty good about it. It might not even take that. Those suggesting he may have overplayed his hand are correct. Somebody may get a bit of a bargain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I'd probably go a a tiny bit higher than Matt on Donaldson, saying $75 for the first three years. That's expecting a WAR total of 8 1/3 - 9 3/8 for three seasons, which seems plausible. If you get a single 4 WAR season, he only needs to manage 4 1/2 or so in the other two combined. The fourth year gets awfully shaky for me though.
    I'd look at the fourth year as the premium for doing retail business. As you point out, it's very reasonable - even likely - you get sufficient value in years 1-3 to justify the contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    When clv is able to determine this lineup is not affordable, it should be blatantly obvious to everyone.

    That's a $170M-$175M opening day payroll.
    I don’t disagree about the payroll amount but I’m not sure we know for sure what our cap is. Bryant of course would be a pricy addition but the total commitment at 2 years is not that bad and also fairly low risk.

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