Official Offseason Thread

[nsacpi]

Just at a guess, I think he'll settle down somewhere in the 25-30% range. Which, combined his poor walk rate, leads to a guy who needs to BABIP what, .380? just to be average.

A player who K's 30% of the time, walks 10%, hits 30 HRs, BABIPs .320, and plays slightly above average defense at third is worth 3-4 WAR. I think that's the optimistic case for Riley.

If all of those numbers are slightly worse or one of them significantly worse, then it becomes a reach putting him in the lineup every day. It's a fine line.