Official Offseason Thread

[thewupk]

Over the last three seasons, Markakis, Frazier, D'Arnaud, Swanson, and Inciarte have produced 4 years with a wRC+ greater than 100 between them. The highest being Markakis's 115 in 2018.

That's (hypothetically) the 4-8 in the Braves lineup a lot of nights.

that isn't good enough.

The Braves will have 3+ WAR out of CF and Catcher. That is good enough.

[Southcack77]

The Braves will have 3+ WAR out of CF and Catcher. That is good enough.

I think that is optimistic at both positions and highly, highly dependent on the squishiest areas of player evaluation.

[nsacpi]

I think that is optimistic at both positions and highly, highly dependent on the squishiest areas of player evaluation.

Should be noted we won the division in 2018 and 2019 with Ender in center and a similar combo at catcher.

[zbhargrove]

I think that is optimistic at both positions and highly, highly dependent on the squishiest areas of player evaluation.

That's not all that overly optimistic for a Flowers/d'Arnaud combo... 3 WAR should be pretty easy if d'Arnaud can stay relatively healthy. And Inciarte is just one year removed from perennial ~3 WAR seasons. And he was unhealthy for a lot of last season and will hopefully be back to full health. So, I don't if its as "optimistic" as you're making it out to be.

[DirkPiggler]

That's not all that overly optimistic for a Flowers/d'Arnaud combo... 3 WAR should be pretty easy if d'Arnaud can stay relatively healthy. And Inciarte is just one year removed from perennial ~3 WAR seasons. And he was unhealthy for a lot of last season and will hopefully be back to full health. So, I don't if its as "optimistic" as you're making it out to be.

To add to this, in the event that Ender cannot return to 3 WAR production, there will be a couple of pretty decent fallback options with high upside sitting in Gwinnett.

[zbhargrove]

Well, yet another big name walks away from A-town after "loving it." I remember when guys wanted to play for the Braves.

Wait... you spent all last season wanting him off the team and now you're being all negative because he's gone?

[thewupk]

I think that is optimistic at both positions and highly, highly dependent on the squishiest areas of player evaluation.

By almost every measure Ender is considered a top tier defender in center when healthy. Even with his light hitting I have no issue sticking a 3 WAR label on him. He had a bad bad last year and played to his normal levels when he returned.

Flowers is an elite pitch framer and a constant 2 WAR guy. Flowers/d'Arnaud will get to 3 WAR easy if they are healthy.

[Russ2dollas]

Brian Anderson is the guy I’ve brought up a couple of times. Problem is it’s the marlins and they only trade guys if they can get your number one prospect.

Anderson and senzel are the off the radar guys that I could see making sense. Both likely cost a haul.

[Russ2dollas]

By almost every measure Ender is considered a top tier defender in center when healthy. Even with his light hitting I have no issue sticking a 3 WAR label on him. He had a bad bad last year and played to his normal levels when he returned.

Flowers is an elite pitch framer and a constant 2 WAR guy. Flowers/d'Arnaud will get to 3 WAR easy if they are healthy.

I know we all get into this debate every year about war.

We need better hitters. I think we currently have three above avg hitters on the team. Not avg for their position, over 100 wrc+.

We lose any of our big three and it’s a line up that looks like the coppy days.

[Southcack77]

That's not all that overly optimistic for a Flowers/d'Arnaud combo... 3 WAR should be pretty easy if d'Arnaud can stay relatively healthy. And Inciarte is just one year removed from perennial ~3 WAR seasons. And he was unhealthy for a lot of last season and will hopefully be back to full health. So, I don't if its as "optimistic" as you're making it out to be.

Ok, I disagree.

We've seen Ender's best season. We've seen Flowers' best season. IMO.

Even if they do get back to 3 wins, it's going to be defense or framing based and ... yeah?

[Southcack77]

By almost every measure Ender is considered a top tier defender in center when healthy. Even with his light hitting I have no issue sticking a 3 WAR label on him. He had a bad bad last year and played to his normal levels when he returned.

Flowers is an elite pitch framer and a constant 2 WAR guy. Flowers/d'Arnaud will get to 3 WAR easy if they are healthy.

a 29 year old without a lot of speed had nagging injuries and it hurt his defensive production. Sounds about right.

[thewupk]

Ok, I disagree.

We've seen Ender's best season. We've seen Flowers' best season. IMO.

Even if they do get back to 3 wins, it's going to be defense or framing based and ... yeah?

So those things don't help teams win? cool.

[Southcack77]

But, to be clear. My comments were not specifically in reference to C or CF.

The Braves had Josh Donaldson in 2019.

They got great years from Camargo and Markakis in 2018. I wouldn't recommend hoping that you can get the same kind of cobbled together production in 2020 out of essentially the same or same class of players as in 2018. It's possible, but not a great bet.

[Southcack77]

So those things don't help teams win? cool.

I'm not convinced the comparative importance of those things is properly weighted in WAR calculations.

[clvclv]

~15 million per season seems to be the common opinion. The years is the question. He's looking for a 4 year deal. I would do 3/45 with a 4th year option and 5 million buyout.

Going to guess Donaldson being off the market pushes both he and Ozuna into the $18 million per range (maybe even a little more given how many teams still seem to be "in" on them).

If taking on all of Seager's money limits the prospect cost as suggested and Riley alone could get him, it's at least a little interesting to wonder if the money's available to add both Seager and Marte. I wouldn't think so, but who knows after the way AA has spent so far this winter?

If the 4th (and possibly 5th as it turns out) year is what kept him from bringing Donaldson back - not the AAV - is there around $25 million available? Seager and Marte are owed $30.5 million each of the next two years, and if you add Marte you could let Duvall go and save the largest chunk of his $3.5 million this season with Culberson/Camargo handling the emergency/5th OF role until Pache comes up. That puts their "cap hit" number at around $27 million. If you add some filler with Riley and can get the Mariners to eat some money (even if it's just this season) you ought to be able to get that number below $25 million.

The big question (for me) would be exactly what will Marte cost prospect-wise? What would you have to add on top of Waters to pry him away?

I realize how polarizing his name is but if he'd take a pillow deal to try to rebuild value, a Seager/Puig tandem looks pretty good about right now - that would allow you to keep all the kids (other than Riley) and buy you the time Pache and Waters need. In 2021 you'd have all of the Hamels/Melancon/Puig/Greene/Markakis/Flowers/Duvall money coming off the books in the event you wanted to make a play for Bauer or Paxton.

[Hudson2]

Looking at it, JD is making 23 per for the next 4 years. Either AA is out of money or he has a big plan B up his sleeve. I know 4 years is a big commitment for a 34 year old but I really hope AA didn’t shoot his wad on pitching.

[Super]

I'm not convinced the comparative importance of those things is properly weighted in WAR calculations.

and the data supporting this view is..?

[bravesfanforlife88]

I have a feeling that this is going to be similar to last offseason where we went into spring training knowing we needed another starter.....we waiting until Keuchel finally agreed to fix that problem, then the trade deadline to fix our bullpen issues...

It feels like we won't fix our cleanup hitter situation until that timeframe

[MadduxFanII]

I have a feeling that this is going to be similar to last offseason where we went into spring training knowing we needed another starter.....we waiting until Keuchel finally agreed to fix that problem, then the trade deadline to fix our bullpen issues...

It feels like we won't fix our cleanup hitter situation until that timeframe

I think it's probably harder to find a legit clean-up hitter than it is to find a couple solid bullpen arms or a decent back-of-the-rotation starter.

[Slippyjms]

Going to guess Donaldson being off the market pushes both he and Ozuna into the $18 million per range (maybe even a little more given how many teams still seem to be "in" on them).

If taking on all of Seager's money limits the prospect cost as suggested and Riley alone could get him, it's at least a little interesting to wonder if the money's available to add both Seager and Marte. I wouldn't think so, but who knows after the way AA has spent so far this winter?

If the 4th (and possibly 5th as it turns out) year is what kept him from bringing Donaldson back - not the AAV - is there around $25 million available? Seager and Marte are owed $30.5 million each of the next two years, and if you add Marte you could let Duvall go and save the largest chunk of his $3.5 million this season with Culberson/Camargo handling the emergency/5th OF role until Pache comes up. That puts their "cap hit" number at around $27 million. If you add some filler with Riley and can get the Mariners to eat some money (even if it's just this season) you ought to be able to get that number below $25 million.

The big question (for me) would be exactly what will Marte cost prospect-wise? What would you have to add on top of Waters to pry him away?

I realize how polarizing his name is but if he'd take a pillow deal to try to rebuild value, a Seager/Puig tandem looks pretty good about right now - that would allow you to keep all the kids (other than Riley) and buy you the time Pache and Waters need. In 2021 you'd have all of the Hamels/Melancon/Puig/Greene/Markakis/Flowers/Duvall money coming off the books in the event you wanted to make a play for Bauer or Paxton.

TLDR